Rethinking decline: why blaming migrants might miss the point

[Hearingelem]

Hi all,
I've been mulling over some unsettling trends in the UK and wanted to hear your thoughts—particularly those of us noticing fewer kids around and schools closing.
First, I’m not blaming migrants—they’re filling gaps we’ve created. But it hit me: if people who’ve lived here for generations aren’t having children, who is keeping our society going? It’s like watching your family line slowly fade.
Here’s the gist:

• Fewer families are having children, or delaying them until their 30s or beyond.
• Abortions are up—almost 30% of pregnancies end in abortion now.
• Primary schools are shutting or merging due to low pupil numbers.
• Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of migrants are arriving each year, and tens of thousands of British-born people are leaving.

It got me thinking: if we plant seeds everywhere but only the ones in the right environment grow, shouldn’t we rethink that environment—rather than blaming the plants? 🚨 Shocking stats at a glance:

• 29.7% of all conceptions in England & Wales ended in legal abortion in 2022—nearly 3 in 10 pregnancies—and up from 20.8% in 2012 (Sky News, The Guardian, Office for National Statistics).
• That’s 247,703 conceptions aborted in 2022—a 13% increase from 2021 (Office for National Statistics).
• Migrant inflows: ~1.2 million long-term arrivals in year to June 2024; 728,000 net migration (arrivals minus departures) (Full Fact).
• Emigration: 479,000 people left in that same period—including a sizeable number of British nationals (Full Fact).

I’m not here to stir division. I want people—especially those quick to blame migrants—to look in the mirror: if our birth environment is failing us, aren't we partly responsible? Let’s talk solutions: Affordable housing, gig‑free childcare, pay transparency, flexible working, serious sex-ed and contraception access… what would help you feel like having kids here and now? Curious to hear your views—especially if this hits home for you. Sources: ONS conception stats (2022) & abortion trends: [ONS Conception Bulletin] ONS net migration & emigration data: [ONS Immigration Statistics]

But what happens when the new young workers get old? That is why @Jennps calls it a ponzi scheme. You need ever more people coming in at the bottom to cope with those getting old at the top.

Being able to afford a 2nd dc would have allowed us to try for a second dc - and we were not low earners- my employer when ds was 4 only paid statutory maternity and coupled with the childcare costs it was all too much.

Or fewer people with higher earning and therefore tax paying ability

They're opening new schools here - and one they have are all are full.

The immediate center is dire and one of worst affected in country - local economy pretty poor but there cheaper than surround area housing and communtable nearby cities with lots of well paid jobs - so people commute.

It's increasingly an area with lots of kids and has a higher - though still below replacement level becuase housing still just about okay. I think the cheaper housing areas are rapildy disappearing.

There was a housing crisis in victroian times - with no access to contrception they crammed more people into smaller spaces with down turn in living standards. Now we have option to have fewer people.

In 2023, 37.3% of live births in England and Wales were to parents where either one or both were born outside the UK

The UK born fertility rates are actually much lower I think than realised - as over a thrid of babies born have one or two foregin born parents.

Isn’t Rachel Reeves sorting it all out anyhow so none of us need worry.

@belladeli you get alot wrong. You ignore the fact that one person is usually sent as an anchor and once given asylum the rest of the family are entitled to come (and usually not go getters or dynamic but a drain on the taxpayer). The Tories even let students bring their whole family. There is no prior contribution requirement for much of the British state like in many other countries.
You also seem to assume older people are a drain. Firstly people are working alot longer especially highly paid workers. Second you seek to think contribution in taxes is only via jobs. There are many other taxes - VAT, stamp duty, CGT, corporation tax which as older people are richer they are now likely to pay per capita.

But what happens when the new young workers get old? That is why calls it a ponzi scheme. You need ever more people coming in at the bottom to cope with those getting old at the top.

Ideally you want a slump - so slightly less people in next generation but not too small so working population can support older dependents as well as younger ones.

You want to avoid a cliff edge - where there are too few tax payer to dependents - so if birth rates fall too soon - paying for dependent care get's too expenisve in taxes - so countries also end up borrowing I've seen it suggested it why Japan's debt level have increased - and it makes it harder for workers to have kids under the tax burden so next generation again is much smaller and as they grow up they have a big older dependent population to support so have fewer kids.

We're plugging gaps with migrant labour -but world wide fertlity rates are dropping so at some point that's going to get harder.

Some people think at some point it will reach a natural level - but who knows but socities round the world will just have to adapt because everywhere but sub saharan africa is already on below or will soon be at below replacments fertlity levels.

Newer research is showing that too much migration (enough to impact housing demand) also lessens the birth rate.

So using immigration to quell the effects of low birth rates is counterproductive.

There have always been c 20% of women who have no DC.

What’s happened from the 1970s to now is fewer families have 2/3 DCs compared to 1/2 DC.

You see it on threads here- there are hundreds of should we go from 2 to 3. Most will say no. Look at the reasons given and there you will find the solutions.

Large language learning models can't have children. So why are you so invested?
Besides, all the chat these days is that AI will replace human jobs- which is a huge discouragement from having children. That being he case by using AI are you not a huge part of the problem?

I agree with all this - and pointed it out on other threads.

Immigrants need housing and other services making already scare resouce rarer and more expensive- and it then impacts on the working population again making it harder to have kids.

I felt last 12 months BBC have started to understand this at local and national level and moved on from it's just racists in coverage to it's nuanced and resourced based or in least some of it's coverage.

Though I think MN is just anti any child let alone 2 to 3. I've been on threads when a poster was asking when to have a child - not if - and been induated with never posts.

I've also seen stat that say for every 2 kids born in UK another was wanted and not had usually down to economics.

Though over time what tends to happen is the smaller families tends to become normalized and there is decreased desire and social pressure to not have more.

Honestly, stop. You are embarrassing yourself trying to argue about something you have no clue about.

Can you show me the evidence for this?

Can you show me evidence for all the assertions you made?

Until the government brings housing under control, people will keep having fewer and fewer children (especially in the cities/SE).

Sure there is lots of it. As I have an early start I won't spent much time but this is a good start. migrationobservatory.ox.ac.uk/resources/briefings/the-fiscal-impact-of-immigration-in-the-uk/

It’s all down to house prices vs wages. Look at a graph of real housing prices over the past fifty years against average wages, and you’ll see why the birth rate has plummeted.

If housing affordability was at 1970s or mid-1990s levels you’d see a higher birth rate. Boomers tended to buy family houses and have children in their twenties. That’s unaffordable for most these days, and the astonishing price of houses in many areas (around fourteen to sixteen times average household income where I live), means that having a family is extremely difficult.

Add childcare to that and I don’t know how anyone does it. I would have liked more children after DD, but I was in my late thirties and we simply couldn’t afford to have another, and pay for childcare and housing costs at the same time. And we earn a pretty decent household income.

Immigration is a distraction from the real issue, which is that speculation in housing, and the massive housing bubble we’ve been in since 2002, has catastrophically ruined the real economy. Those in the population who are sitting on piles of housing wealth have actually eaten the golden goose. The only way out of this now is the housing crash that has been put off for two decades now. Otherwise, the younger population will just get poorer and poorer relative to the older generations holding housing assets; and the birth rate will continue to plummet.

Here is another one that seems pretty robust. https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0,5&qsp=1&q=migration+on+productivity+united+kingdom&qst=br#d=gs_qabs&t=1752443875317&u=%23p%3DyOYg7lOJGokJ

30% of pregnancies end in abortion? Surely that’s not true!

I’ve already explained upthread all the important parts that are missing from this

Again, already explained upthread. Copying and pasting links without reading and understanding whether it answers the exam question is what seems to be happening here.

But it’s the quality of immigration we should be looking at. We don’t want uneducated, unskilled people who can’t speak English. We need immigrants who are educated, skilled, speak our language, who want to integrate into our culture.

Here's a solution. Instead of importing care workers to the UK we could ship our elderly off the the Philippines or Nigeria or wherever to be looked after.

Weirdly I prefer to get my information from peer reviewed articles or research than from some randomer on Mumsnet who hasn't backed up any of their information from anywhere. Some of us also can understand macroeconomics and make it sound clever if we want to but prefer to hear from those who have spent years researching it.

Better solution would be to get the people already here to be care workers. Get people off benefits and into work. Far too many people trying to find excuses not to work. We need to sort that mindset out.

So you didn’t read what you posted, didn’t understand it, and have no clue what you are talking about. And if you find what I posted, clever, then thanks. Perhaps if you actually read rather than regurgitating soundbites, you’ll find something clever to post also.