Rethinking decline: why blaming migrants might miss the point

[Hearingelem]

Hi all,
I've been mulling over some unsettling trends in the UK and wanted to hear your thoughts—particularly those of us noticing fewer kids around and schools closing.
First, I’m not blaming migrants—they’re filling gaps we’ve created. But it hit me: if people who’ve lived here for generations aren’t having children, who is keeping our society going? It’s like watching your family line slowly fade.
Here’s the gist:

• Fewer families are having children, or delaying them until their 30s or beyond.
• Abortions are up—almost 30% of pregnancies end in abortion now.
• Primary schools are shutting or merging due to low pupil numbers.
• Meanwhile, hundreds of thousands of migrants are arriving each year, and tens of thousands of British-born people are leaving.

It got me thinking: if we plant seeds everywhere but only the ones in the right environment grow, shouldn’t we rethink that environment—rather than blaming the plants? 🚨 Shocking stats at a glance:

• 29.7% of all conceptions in England & Wales ended in legal abortion in 2022—nearly 3 in 10 pregnancies—and up from 20.8% in 2012 (Sky News, The Guardian, Office for National Statistics).
• That’s 247,703 conceptions aborted in 2022—a 13% increase from 2021 (Office for National Statistics).
• Migrant inflows: ~1.2 million long-term arrivals in year to June 2024; 728,000 net migration (arrivals minus departures) (Full Fact).
• Emigration: 479,000 people left in that same period—including a sizeable number of British nationals (Full Fact).

I’m not here to stir division. I want people—especially those quick to blame migrants—to look in the mirror: if our birth environment is failing us, aren't we partly responsible? Let’s talk solutions: Affordable housing, gig‑free childcare, pay transparency, flexible working, serious sex-ed and contraception access… what would help you feel like having kids here and now? Curious to hear your views—especially if this hits home for you. Sources: ONS conception stats (2022) & abortion trends: [ONS Conception Bulletin] ONS net migration & emigration data: [ONS Immigration Statistics]

Could I say as a former educator who worked in social services there are so many inadequate and frankly awful parents out there and they often are the one having more than two.

Why encourage this just to create more worker bees?

We are going to have to think of better ideas to address the ageing population than encouraging people to have more kids.

PSA: If you don’t want kids /more kids or are indifferent about it then please don’t! I am literally begging you. The only ones who should be having kids are those who realy want to be parents and would provide good emotional and mental stability for their children. I see so many of my friends with their kids and they are amazing! But not everyone is like that.

Even many of the people who did strongly want kids aren’t doing a great job - and how many adults do you see on here who spend their life trying to recover from their childhood trauma.

I’ve heard in some of the Scandi countries that have great benefits for parents the birth rate is falling too. I assume it’s a case of women just knowing it’s not for them to have more than one or two kids - or any child at all and standing firm on that rather than following societal expectations. This is a good thing as far as I’m concerned.

And notice the omission of the concept of net contribution.

It's funny how net contributors is the latest buzzword. It's always been normal to have a large % of the population that aren't net contributors. Think logically about average earnings, what tax people pay and the costs of healthcare, education and potentially 20 years of a state pension. There weren't loads of higher rate tax payers in the past, there are more now partly because of fiscal drag.

An ageing population naturally means fewer net cont

fewer net contributors.

The activity in the economy. You don’t need 100 people to build widgets to generate activity. Thats what machines are for. You can have 90 people and an additional machine doing the same.

Purchasing the additional machine comes with an upfront outlay, which businesses will avoid, if they can have a supply of cheap labour. It makes their free cash flow look good but reduces GDP per capita. And puts more burden on the net contributors.

Whike I normally don't want to engage with chatgpt posts here (if i would I would just chat to chatgpt on its app🤷)...

May I point out that 2022 was very much not a good year with shit years before so that would explain rise in abortions...

Net contributor is not a buzzword, you may have heard of it for the first time, but it’s quite a standard phrase describing a basic economic principle.

And no, it hasn’t been normal at all. It is a recent phenomenon that over half the population cannot even sustain themselves. That’s why the social contract is breaking down.

Housing.

Adults are less likely to reproduce if they do not have their own home (whether rented or mortgaged)

Areas have had decline in normal populations from

• huge numbers of students pushing out families - this means schools shut.
• holiday lets pushing out families - this means schools shut

As housing costs go up (for many reasons, but including students and holiday lets) then it becomes harder for young people to get their own place. HMO numbers are up.

Migration adds to this burden (job list of those occupations short of workers is a joke!) and student numbers, as well as the irregular migration (Labour's words not mine). This all pushes up housing costs.

It's almost uneconomical to work if you have children if you need childcare due to the immense cost burden already placed on you by housing costs (and energy, water, food etc) so fewer people join in the workforce.

Many young people just don't work. Perhaps they see no point in working for a society that is screwing them over.

I think it’s flipped now and politicians can no longer sell in high immigration figures.

If you read @WrigglyDonCatpost on the issues with always increasing, and those people aging, can you see the problems there?

Well durr we (UK) had an aging population and a growing economy all through the 80s and the 90s. The main thing that changed was importing 15 million people most low skilled or not working. What @Jennps says re productivity makes perfect sense. The example everyone uses is the automated car washes we used to have which were replaced by multiple Eastern Europeans costing the taxpayer £££ (as all low and middle paid workers do - I think you have to earn something likd £45k to be a net contributor).

Well durr we (UK) had an aging population and a growing economy all through the 80s and the 90s.

Did we have an ageing population in the 80s & 90s? I thought the median age was 30 something then and we didn't have more over 65s vs under 15s like we do now?

on the issues with always increasing, and those people aging, can you see the problems there?

Who is saying the population should ever increase? Isn't the natural population declining in the next few years? I think the only growth forecast is due to immigration?

Net contributor is not a buzzword, you may have heard of it for the first time

People panicking about the amount of net contributors is a new thing...

And no, it hasn’t been normal at all. It is a recent phenomenon that over half the population cannot even sustain themselves. That’s why the social contract is breaking down.

@Jennps what % of that half of net contributors are pensioners?
When did the country have a high percentage of net contributors?

If the % of retired households increases then the amount of net contributors decreases

You've literally left in the references that chatgpt used to source this information.

I was interested in engaging with this thread, but this is utterly lazy AI crap!

Can you say what you’d prefer to see? Are you wanting a higher level of immigration, if so for how long?

You've got it the wrong way round. As an overall people not born in the UK are net contributors more than people who are born here. Ie their net contribution to tax compared to how much they cost in public services is less than the average British born person.

This isn't much of a surprise as the people that come here tend to be coming to work or to make a better life for themselves. 2nd generation is equally on a similar footing. Immigrant's children tend to achieve better at school.

If you are the sort of person that has managed to travel thousands of miles to start up a new life you tend to be a bit of a go-getter, you also tend to have better health than the average person. Quite often immigrants will then in their older age when they cost more go back to their original country (not always but often), hence they don't cost the British taxpayer the same amount as British born pensioners.

Are you wanting a higher level of immigration,

Why do you think I am advocating for more immigration? I'm pretty ok with the levels of skilled migrants. If the numbers are drastically cut I would like to know the impact to the taxes I have to pay & impact to public services as that would likely influence my opinion. It's difficult to make a decision when you don't have facts surely?

@EasternStandard what level of immigration do you want? Do you have a line of how much tax you are prepared to pay or what services you don't mind being cut?

Weird to tie pro-natalism in with anti-immigrant sentiments.

Not for the far right. 'Fighting aged men', 'illegals', the changing demographic because foreigners/Muslims breed like rabbits. Low birth rate for white people - they're all saying the same thing. It's the Great Replacement theory and guess who's the answer.

Japan made the decision to not go for immigration and instead bought in policies to limit the impact. However now they have started to turn towards immigration. The ageing population issue is uncharted territory & the powers that be will not likely consider my needs & wants in their decisions 😆

How naive. As well as misinformed.

Immigration is lowering GDP per capita. Which equals a poorer country.

And being a go getter does not automatically make you an engineer, an SDE, a nuclear physicist, etc. That’s not the profile of the average person coming here. Thats not the immigrants fault. Why wouldn’t they come here with their larger families, non working spouses, elderly parents, if they can get all of those children in school for free and use every other ready made service, while earning £26k a year.

Birth rates have declined amongst immigrants too, they tend to adopt the same societal norms.

This thread shows why this country cannot come out of the doom loop now. Majority of the population is dumbed down to the level where they don’t understand basic economic and fiscal principles. They think that soundbites are enough to pay your way as a country.

They have completely sleep walked into a situation where low skilled migration over 28 years has had a huge part to play in lowering the country’s productivity leading to a sky high debt to GDP ratio and printing of £1 trillion to pay for free stuff.

The economic hole that this country is so deep that it’s scary.

Scary that these economically illiterate people get to vote.

Yeah, hence the Ponzi scheme.

Glad you’re getting it now.

We never recovered from 08 and the government and companies didn't invest in their staff, companies or the country. Labour should have been honest about tax rises as they were always going to be inevitable.

"* *In 2023, the Centre for Policy Studies essay collection Justice for the Young showed keeping spending on an ageing population constant would require growth of 2.9% per year, for the next 50 years"

The above quote is mind blowing. The only real solution is cutting services and increasing taxes but no one wants to hear that let alone vote for that.

Yeah, hence the Ponzi scheme

Glad you’re getting it now

You're the one who isn't getting it.
A ponzi scheme is a pyramid. We don't have pyramid demographics. Immigration doesn't offset aging populations otherwise why would our population still be ageing? It's largely used to address the gaps in labour.

Scary that these economically illiterate people get to vote.

The absolute irony 😆