A future Reform government is looking more and more likely

[Jennps]

The Tories ruined the country to such an extent that they are potentially finished, forever.

Labour, in the last year, have hit new depths of incompetence and stupidity.

Taxes are higher than ever and businesses are being destroyed under the weight of NI increases

Gilt yields higher now than under Truss

National debt at unprecedented levels and debt interested out of control

Food inflation nearing 10%

Top rate taxpayers leaving the country in their tens of thousands, a complete disaster given that the top 1% pay nearly a third of all tax

Welfare out of control with 1000 people a day going onto disability benefits

Illegal migration even worse than under the Tories

And the latest from Labour…..a deal with France to bring over migrants into the UK. Cue the outrage and noise about but yeah, they’re coming over anyway, it’s one in one out, it’s family connection only (like anyone is going to test DNA to prove family connections) yada yada yada. It’s not the point. The country does not need more pull factors. This is going to be a huge one. It’s practically going to turn illegal migration into legal, the idea being to massage the numbers.

Reform are being handed power on a plate by this shower. They couldn’t ask for a better campaigning outfit than this Labour government.

How are they addressing immigration? What's the plan?

I agree they're talking about it which the other parties (going back to Blair and Caneron) haven't allowed people to do, but what is the actual plan?

Also why is immigration all bad? Even Farage has had to admit immigrants are needed in large numbers.

I hadn't realised food inflation was back up to ten percent!

Edit- just did a quick check and it looks like it's 4.4% year on year. Do you have a link to something different op?

Reform will form the next Government if Labour and the Tories don't improve and improve quickly. For all those people saying they will be awful and people would be mad to vote for them, its for Labour to unite, vastly improve their performance and give the electorate some semblance of competence. If the electorate had confidence in the established parties, there would be no need for Reform but the dire state of politics now has left the door wide open for Reform.

Stsrmer has always been all for open borders and mass immigration..he's a staunch liberal globalist.

This latest policy is just designed to get the boat numbers down because it's politically damaging.

I can see senior Tories like Robert Jenrick and Chris Philp positioning themselves to work with Reform. This would benefit both as Reform don't have a depth of talent - they should be called Farage and Friends, and Nigel Farage himself is over 60 now and doesn't represent the long-term future.

I'm no Conservative but think that Kemi Badenoch is a clever woman and rather serious, which makes her ineffective in opposition and easy for the ambitious plotter types in her party to sideline.

Remember there are four years until the next election. Plenty of time for deals to be made, especially as it already looks inevitable that Labour will lose.

Unless Boris comes back as leader of the Conservatives. If not for COVID he would conceivably still be our PM and we would have avoided Truss and Sunak.

Really! It’s 4 years away and the same could have been said about the Tories several times.

The voice of doom! Doom I tell ye! There Is No Alternative as Thatcher said. Except there always is, and Brits are generally moderate social democratic people.

Unless people are persuaded that it's not worth voting of course, and that's when the extremists get in...

I doubt it, but god help us all with that ignorant bunch of buffoons.

I think the others have been cleverer, than Badenoch. There's no way she'll still be in post at the next election. She's taking all the pain for them to step in later.

Tories like Robert Jenrick and Chris Philp positioning themselves to work with Reform. This would benefit both as Reform don't have a depth of talent

The depth wouldn’t be improved by the likes of Philp and Jenrick. I would why they’re unable to recruit talent 🤔

Same here.

If you look at the latest polls they’re doing incredibly well.

The Tories just had their snouts in the trough, the labour government just want to give money to everyone and tax the hell out of everyone.

it’s not because people like reform, it’s because they feel they’ve got no alternative.

I appreciate your concerns about the current political situation, but I'd like to respectfully address some of the claims you've made with more recent data and context:

On taxes and businesses: While the employer National Insurance rate increased from 13.8% to 15%, this change only affects employers and follows the Conservative government's previous rate increases. Small businesses are protected by the Employment Allowance, and the OBR forecasts UK business investment will grow by 8.9% over the next two years.

On gilt yields: These fluctuate based on global markets and economic confidence. The recent rises reflect global trends affecting all major economies, not just UK policy. The UK's current 10-year gilt yields are actually lower than they were during the height of the Truss mini-budget crisis.

On inflation: Food inflation has actually decreased significantly from its peak of 19.2% in March 2023. The latest figures show it's now around 3-4%, not "nearing 10%".

On migration: The UK-France agreement involves small numbers of refugees with family connections already in the UK, not mass migration. It's designed to reduce dangerous Channel crossings by offering safe, legal routes, actually discouraging illegal migration rather than encouraging it.

On disability benefits: The rise in claims relates to long NHS waiting lists and the pandemic's health impact. These are people genuinely unable to work due to illness or disability, not a welfare issue.

I think we can DEFINITELY agree that there are genuine challenges facing the country, but addressing them requires accurate information and nuanced discussion rather than catastrophising.

If you object to Reform because of their rhetoric on immigration then I don't think the Conservatives will offer a soft place to land, especially if the right of the party starts to push forward- lately they seem to have taken the baton and ran with it.

I agree with this. I don't think I can bring myself to vote again.

We know you're hot for him but really, have you forgotten that your precious leader was a big fan of that absolute bin fire of a Truss budget? Such short memories.

Well, they surely couldn't do any worse than Tory or starmer.

Trust me they absolutely could. Watch the councils they’re running for the next four years and rejoice if you don’t live there.

Oh yes. Race to the bottom.

I do think it’s a possibility that Reform will get in. They have most of the media salivating over everything they say, so they’re getting a huge amount of publicity. Also the media is not publicising anything positive this gov is doing, only the negative stuff.
And I think unfortunately there are enough niave people who will vote for them because they listen to soundbites “we want our county back” etc etc. they don’t bother to think further than that.

The conservatives have destroyed this country with austerity, Labour are trying to put things right, people expect everything to improve immediately and that’s not how things work irl. It’s a ridiculous and scary time.

@Idrinklotsofcoffee
You haven't addressed any concerns. You have simply twisted the stats to suit you and given your own very subjective explanation to real issues. The aftermath of the disastrous Truss budget should not be the benchmark we use to judge the current government regarding inflation and gilts. This was a crisis and I would expect Labour to have significantly improved the situation now that they are a year into government.

Also your explanations on immigration and disability benefits are simply skirting around the problem. Of course all disability claimants aren't genuine and it isn't all about post pandemic waiting lists. You have to be incredibly naive to buy into this. Starmer hasn't done enough on immigration and people are angry and fed up.

More likely that people will vote tactically to keep Reform out!

I normally look forward to your posts on politics but this is pure flippant lefty navel-gazing IMO. Jenrick and those videos where he stands at a tube station pointing at people ignoring the barriers are getting through to an audience.

He's also been the most consistent anti-immigration Tory voice since Suella Braverman was relegated to the backbenches, and he plays better to the right-wing voters as he's a white chap with a short back and sides, not an eccentric beige woman.

Don't underestimate him. He probably should have won the Tory leadership and Starmer is getting an easier ride for the fact he didn't, but is too useless to take advantage.

I think its a real concern.
I wish there was someway to make people understand that thier "addressing immigration' plan isn't real..

The only thing that might scupper them is thier nhs plan..