It’s likely clear from my posts that I wouldn’t have dismantled the JCPOA in 2018 — that decision created the breach. And I believed a diplomatic solution to that breech was not only preferable, but possible.
Let’s not lose sight of what the JCPOA accomplished. It capped Iran’s enrichment at 3.6%, far below weapons-grade. It eliminated 98% of its enriched uranium stockpile and imposed the most intrusive inspection regime in the world. The IAEA repeatedly confirmed Iran’s compliance.
The U.S. could have stayed in the deal. Trump didn’t. Biden could have rejoined it in his first term. He didn’t. And the window closed. Iran’s program advanced, and the political space for diplomacy shrank.
When the U.S. walked away and reimposed sanctions while Iran was still compliant, it shattered diplomatic credibility and undermined those in Iran who had staked their future on engagement. Yes, Iran eventually breached the limits — but only after waiting a year in vain for the U.S. to change course.
Now, we’re watching bombs fall on nuclear sites — strikes that will make any nuclear programme harder to monitor. Moreover they've triggered an open-ended safeguards quagmire that could reshape how the IAEA operates for years to come.
I had been watching the diplomatic talks in Muscat with cautious hope. But the strikes have undercut the backchannels Oman has carefully maintained — and made diplomacy harder, not easier.
Let’s also be honest: the demand that Iran give up all enrichment was never realistic. If you want talks to fail, that’s the demand you make. Iran’s position — maintaining some domestic enrichment under tight IAEA oversight — is rooted in national pride and bitter experience. This isn’t about trust. It’s about creating a framework where verification substitutes for it.
Iran is no model international citizen. But insisting on a nuclear program they’ve paid dearly for — in sanctions, isolation, and assassinated scientists — is not extreme when paired with rigorous safeguards. And serious proposals were still on the table: capping enrichment, exporting or diluting stockpiles, restoring 24/7 IAEA inspections.
President Obama said it best in 2009:
“Sanctions without outreach — condemnation without discussion — can carry forward only a crippling status quo.”