To think Starmer has shot himself in the foot.

[TheQuickRobin]

This isn’t about my own opinion but political strategy.

So he does this Island of strangers thing wanting to appeal to Labour heartlands who have gone to Reform. But.

I just think Reform voters won’t believe him?

Tories hate him becaus he’s Labour.

Middle class Labour lefties will be put off by the message.

Who does he think he’s winning over?

Anyone on here had their opinion of him changed?

IABU - I thought he was a prat now I think he’s on my team

IANBU - EITHER I thought he was a prat, still think he’s a prat OR I liked him now think he’s a prat.

Very unscientific poll here!

I haven't voted, because I am not sure what the effect will be. And it will be hard to tease it out as well since there are so many factors in how people vote.

But I will say - he may be looking to what has happened to the Danish Social Democrats, who looked to be in real trouble with their open border type policies. After shifting to a much more restrictive position they regained a lot of their lost popularity.

Not everyone thinking of voting Reform is a disaffected conservative. Increasingly there are left of center people considering it, and the traditional wcr voters now supporting Reform were, don't forget, originally Labour voters.

So I wouldn't dismiss it as a strategy too quickly.

I will say - I am somewhat shocked that Starmer has managed to get this change in direction from his MPs but still is struggling with getting them to agree that men are not women.

Yes they are cutting PIP, over 80% of standard rate claimants and nearly 20% of enhanced rate will lose it, it’s disgusting

They haven't actually done anything yet but make proposals which have to get through parliament.

I'd like to see Starmer/Labour draw a link between the issues (cost of living, birth rate and immigration), and I'd prefer that the rhetorical focus was on maintaining a society/economy that is viable in the long term, rather than othering immigrants (and, though he was somewhat balanced, I don't like the use of "Strangers" in his speech).

Yes, I do wonder if they have understood this link themselves, or simply won't speak about it because they think it would look bad.

I don't really see strangers as negative as such though. Strangers are not necessarily bad people, they are just people you don't know. And I think it's a good description of how many people feel now.

Couldn't agree more with the OP. Starmer once again shows himself to be a bad politician, quite apart from anything else. Who does he imagine he pleases? Yes, a grown-up conversation needs to had about immigration, but please, the dog-whistles?

The Left now are university educated, middle and upper middle class urban people.

Unfortunately for the LP there are not enough of them to comfortably win an election.

Whilst I agree announcing something like this and leaving people in limbo is cruel I can understand why they wouldn’t announce and enact it straight away.

The early announcement is letting people know and allowing people to plan ahead.
Not knowing what the more stringent assessment is doesn’t help claimants but it will afford a potentially more accurate assessment come the time.

the idea is to get numbers down and ‘make work pay’ in line with Labours Election slogan.

They are still deciding on what the more stringent assessment criteria will be
How can anyone possibly assess the potential numbers affected.

I voted Labour to get the Conservatives out. I didn't realise I was voting in another 'Conservative' government. I'm wondering whether to vote Conservative in the next election because I can't stand the thought of Reform. I'm politically homeless.

Yes, this is the mistake "centrist" liberals make time and again. They mimic the language of the hard right and they think it's a shrewd strategy to cut them off. But they don't do it as well (or as genuinely) as the actual hard right. Starmer's Poundshop Farage bit isn't going to win over anyone who wants to vote for the actual Farage.

And they've always taken their actual progressive voters for granted on the basis that we have nowhere to actually go. That may still be true - the Greens are the only hope - but there are long-term consequences. It worked for Blair in 2005 but the actual electoral turnout collapsed, and I think that deep sense of political alienation seeded where we are now.

And in the meantime mimicking the rhetoric of the far right just legitimises them and normalises their basic premise (that immigration is inherently a problem).

I’m glad he’s tackled legal migration but strongly disagree with the messaging. Very much agree with PPs this has a demographic element that’s never mentioned. ‘Island of strangers’ is a lousy sentiment.

He’s being an absolute plank.

Not true. They're firmly aimed at people with physical disabilities who need help with a range of activities including washing themselves below the waist and preparing meals. I've read countless case studies of people including wheelchair users who say they'll have to give up work when they lose their PIP because they won't be able to afford the support required to do their jobs (including getting ready in the morning). The government is, at the same time, curtailing access to work, the scheme which provides in-work support, while pretending that cuts to in work benefits will enable disabled people to..... Work.
Nobody is guaranteed to be "absolutely fine" in this government's game of deserving v undeserving disability.

Yes, proposals which aren't being consulted on and which MPs are being forced to vote on before any impact assessment is available. Starmer has a huge majority and a habit of removing the whip from those who disagree with him. I genuinely hope these cuts don't go through because the effect on disabled and carer poverty is unthinkable. But I wouldn't put money on a U-turn.

The government is planning to make it much more difficult to successfully apply for PIP with the aim of drastically cutting the numbers who are eligible.

I agree with what they are doing to reduce legal immigration however, the speech was too harsh and will upset the lefties.

I am actually okay with what Labour has done so far, it seems they are getting blamed for the Tories mess and are not been given a fair chance to change the country.

I’m not sure Left vs Right explains U.K. politics anymore. I live in a suburb and I know many university educated people / people in professional roles etc. I also appear to have one of those faces where people are happy to chat away to me!

From my (many) discussions most people said they voted for Reform a handful voted Green at the locals. All the Reform voters were initially sheepish. But when they know you won’t ostracise them they are very happy to discuss. Immigration, safety and reducing numbers is key. Most want mass deportations Rapes of women are a huge concern. Terrorism is another. They can see their kids being priced out of the housing market. They can see rising crime and have read European reports on crime and Nationality. And Nationality and economic contribution..Bombs in Sweden (30 plus in Jan). And they can see not all people who move here want to integrate. Some are here to commit rape and crime. Shoplifting is rife. Two tier policing and criminal justice. But also they are watching the same issues unfold in Europe and the predictable ‘Far Right’ label is now found to be comical. But the level of knowledge, stats, facts etc is impressive. They clearly did their research.

When your PM pops to a garden party while girls are fighting for their lives and he calls concerned people Far Right it was clear he was a wrong un. And people watched and listened and are disgusted by his actions.

So I don’t think it’s Left vs Right as many of these people are pro benefits for the disabled. Many ‘right wing’ are against elderly fuel allowance cuts. Most recognise farmers are asset rich and cash poor. But they recognise we cannot afford a welfare state that supports immigrants who don’t work. And while paying for Net Zero. And hotels for economic migrants and benefits for legal migrants who don’t work. And foreign aid. Some are silently boycotting takeaways and uber as they worry about the black economy and what that funds. Barbers shops springing up with council approval. Others are silently writing to MPs. Something has to give we cannot afford it all. I know this is anecdotal but I can see the change in the last 6-12 months and I speak to a vast amount of people.

I believe Starmer was prioritising supporting immigration and foreign aid and Net Zero over the disabled and elderly and our own food security. He’s being pushed to change his stance on immigration. I’m not sure he will succeed, it’s likely just to be another ‘smash the gangs’ headline. All talk and no action.

In my lovely leafy 4 bed detached middle class street I know all my neighbours. I can run alone each morning. But I’m not naive enough to know this is not the case for a large percentage of the population. People don’t feel safe, because crime is rising. I no longer choose to visit London or Birmingham, I avoid it. I’m sure some tourists feel the same. It’s not pleasant anymore so I spend my money elsewhere and save myself the stress of being mugged, harrassed etc. I can’t be the only one and I believe money from tourism will dry up unless the gov get a grip it.

We don’t even know if Iran or Russia are sending in terrorists? Yet we let undocumented illegal immigrants leave the hotels and wander around the local communities! Some seem to prefer to import men with no ID rather than risk being called a racist (my none British friends think we are bonkers). Thousands of young men arriving each week who presumably still expect/demand/want sex in a country where rapists are rarely jailed - can’t see an issue there…

Many people are politically homeless. Most people who supported either the Tories under Cameron or Labour under pre-Blair governments.

As for Keir Starmer, his government will be judged on the economy, how much taxes are, and the level of net migration.

I personally know of many people who don’t usually vote as didn’t see the point who went and voted because they were desperate for change and were worried about what the Conservatives might do to vulnerable groups. Here we are though and their fears are being realised by a Labour government and people
didn’t see that coming - what they are doing with disability benefits is nothing short of cruel .

I seem to be living in a parallel universe.
Costs of the NHS and/ or social sercives and benefit payments are going to be beyond our income - the cost of interest on money borrowed by governments to cover all this ''generosity'' are higher than the country earns - we are in deep deficit. And have huge interest payments we cannot afford.

But when a Gov comes in and says it might do stuff to reduce our unaffordable debts - everyone whinges and says the incumbent party are awful and we need to get in someone else - someone else who will borrow more and increase our debts so that it guarantees our children and grandchildren are truly skint their whole lives just paying the debts, let alone anything else to improve their lives.

Unbelievable - and we wonder why (no we wonder who to blame) for the shit pile we are in at the moment - hi folks, - it's all thanks to you and your demands for more and more and more

Unlikely. Reform may well have hit its peak soon, also it's unprecedented for such a new "party" (company) to become a major political force in a few short years to the extent it forms government. Also Farage doesn't want the responsibility of being PM, he wants to cause shock and awe on the sidelines.

More likely we'll get a hung parliament or some horribly queasy coalition that will fall apart very quickly and our political stability will be dust.

A less dogmatic and intransigent Starmer would seriously look at electoral reform right now to ward off the threat of far right dominance. Little chance of that happening though.

I did say that immigration needs to be controlled in some way. It’s right there in my post.

However, non British born doctors and midwives have delivered my babies and taken care of them, this last birth was a tough one and they saved this baby’s life. All of my family have been taken care of by non British born medics their whole lives. An excellent non British born GP noticed my husband’s test results pointed towards MS and sent him for more tests which were largely carried out by nurses who were not born here.

eta I don’t need to visit Rochdale or Oldham to “view immigrants”. I live in a very multicultural area already and wouldn’t have it any other way.

Small point, but I hate all the "an island..." rhetoric because it feels like it needlessly excludes, separates, and possibly alienates Northern Ireland.

I don't love or particularly trust Starmer or the current version of UK Labour, but overall I still dislike and distrust the government that preceded him appreciably more.

He's very much a populist, posing an exaggerated threat (island of strangers, benefit "cheats) and placing himself as the one of can rescue the "working person" from that threat.