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Konstantin Kristin's take on the Zelensky /Trump press conference

359 replies

BusyExpert · 01/03/2025 17:10

Konstantin Kristin who is much more knowledgable about events in Ukraine has posted this on his substack. I repeat it here to see if has any effect on the uninformed hysteria being spouted.He explains far better than I could why Zelensky blew it. His ego got in the way and he failed to put it his country before his own ego which was not, as has been the norm from world leaders, been massaged.

Kristin says
"Before we address the in the Oval Office yesterday, a bunch of disclaimers are sadly necessary. Such are the times we live in.
If you are unfamiliar with my work, when Vladimir Putin’s troops invaded Ukraine in 2022, I went on one of the in Britain to express my shame for what Russia was doing and to call on our leaders to support Volodymyr Zelensky in defence of his country. In the weeks that followed, I gave interview after interview and participated in endless debates about our involvement in Ukraine. On TRIGGERnometry, we raised the best part of $100,000 in two hours for Ukrainian charities. My wife and I have sent supplies, clothing and our own money to friends, family and strangers in Ukraine to help them deal with the brutality of war and Russia’s deliberate targeting of Ukraine’s energy systems. Only last week, I described Trump’s labelling of Zelensky as a “dictator” as “absurd”. I can hardly be accused of being a Putin shill. Indeed, my feelings on the subject are so strong that when I saw a short clip of JD Vance and Donald Trump lambasting Volodymyr Zelensky in front of TV cameras last night, like most people, I assumed that this was yet another example of President Trump strong-arming Ukraine into accepting a rushed and unfavourable ceasefire with Russia. To my embarrassment, I tweeted as much.

Having complained only last week of journalists clipping my words out of context, I fell victim to the same trick myself. When I later watched the full 50-minute press conference, it became clear that President Trump had actually done his best to do a deal, and that it was President Zelensky who scuppered it through an ill-advised spat with JD Vance. This gave the Vice President justification to unleash a barrage of anti-Ukraine MAGA talking points he had clearly been waiting to deploy. As if this wasn’t enough, Zelensky then proceeded to mutter an insult under his breath, interrupt and argue with Trump himself, which led to the deal offer being withdrawn and Zelensky being sent to his room without his supper.

So, why did this happen and how can peace be salvaged? To understand why Zelensky acted the way he did, you have to consider the reality he has been operating in:

For the last 3 years, he has led his country in a heroic defence against a brutal and barbaric invasion. He saw innocent Ukrainian civilians being slaughtered, tortured and raped. He watched missiles and drones rain down on his towns and cities. He welcomed Ukrainian POWs on their return from Russian prisons and torture camps, only to discover they were emaciated, bruised and broken. He has spoken with Ukrainian parents whose childrenhave been stolen and taken to Russia.

During the same time period, he has received in every room he has entered. In Europe, across the political spectrum, Ukraine’s cause is seen as just, righteous and important for our collective safety. Foreign leaders have travelled to Kiev for photo ops with him. He has spoken in every major parliament in the world. Praise and attention have been lavished on him from every direction. At every turn, he has been told “we stand with Ukraine”, “Slava Ukraine” and so on.
This is one of the reasons his negotiating position appears somewhat disconnected from reality. During the press conference he argued that Russia must pay for the war on the basis that in history “whoever starts the war, pays”. What he appears to be missing is that this isn’t remotely true: in history, whoever wins makes the losing side pay. While neither side has defeated the other, Ukraine can hardly claim victory.
For all these reasons, the reality vortex he entered in the Oval Office yesterday would have been a shock. The fact is that MAGA, the dominant force in the world’s leading nation, does not share the European view of President Zelensky. You may agree or disagree, but to the current occupants of the White House, their advisors and their base, President Zelensky - and forgive me for putting this bluntly- is an untrustworthy leader of a corrupt country on the other side of the world who keeps asking for more money America doesn’t have to fight a war they neither care about nor feel he can win. Most of these perceptions stem primarily from domestic American politics and the hatred MAGA has for anyone and anything President Biden touched. Most Americans don’t know where Ukraine is and have no reason to care. To them, this is just another “forever war” like Iraq and Afghanistan.
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In other words, President Zelensky walked into a room in which people who don’t particularly like him, don’t particularly trust him, and don’t particularly care about his “just and righteous cause” were nevertheless prepared to continue giving him money, weapons and political support in order to make this problem go away. All he had to do was look grateful. When you are attempting to convert other people’s good will into hard currency, that is the bare minimum. And for 40 minutes, Zelensky just about managed.

The rationale for the argument he then instigated with JD Vance is not without merit. As I explained in my last video, Zelensky’s primary concern has to be what are known as “security guarantees” - this is a fancy way of saying that Putin is a proven liar who can’t be trusted to stick to any agreement reached. Therefore, the only way to prevent another invasion is through a permanent presence of European or American troops in between Russia and Ukraine. He kept making this point over and over during the press conference and did so diplomatically enough.

But the way he challenged Vance directly in front of the cameras was catastrophically stupid. Sure, if you hate Trump and Vance and think they’re taking part in a Youtube debate, then Zelensky made a valid point. But this was not a debate. They’re all supposed to be on the same side. And the person who has the most to lose from them not feeling like they’re all on the same side is President Zelensky, or, more importantly, his nation. The arguments about security guarantees should have been made with tact, diplomacy, and in private.

To make things worse, he followed this unfortunate error with another, much bigger one. In Europe, Zelensky is used to winning people over to his cause by claiming that Ukraine is all that stands between them and Vladimir Putin. We can argue about whether such claims are true, but the important thing is that in Europe we are much more receptive to this message for both cultural and pragmatic reasons. We are on the same continent as Russia and NATO’s eastern border is now in contact with Russia. This point of contact would have been significantly extended had Ukraine been overrun.

These arguments don’t wash in America and what’s worse, Americans HATE people painting a negative picture of their society’s future. This is why, I believe, President Trump interrupted Zelensky when he claimed that America won’t be protected from Putin by an ocean and shut him down.

None of this is to suggest that Vance or Trump behaved perfectly. But they aren’t the ones asking for more money, weapons, and diplomatic support. Their job is to look generous and find a route to peace. Zelensky’s job is to realise that he stopped being a human being when he became President of a country reliant on foreign aid to survive. He does not have the luxury of righteousness and his country cannot afford to have him lose control of his senses as he did."

OP posts:
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MushMonster · 02/03/2025 08:27

It is true that Zelensky did not need to ask anything directly from Vance, particularly challenging him on the effectiveness of diplomacy, which was what they all were there for. But Vance could have said that Trump has the stance to bring this diplomatic negotiations to reality, long standing reality. The others failed, but Trump will succeed.
That would have stopped it there. At least Zelensky carried on the same lines.
But Vance did behave very lowly by insulting Zelensky (Ukraine really) directly. Vance needs to contain himself. Zelensky too, he needs to behave and talk in the way needed to reach that table for peace negotiations. At that point, they should all have acted like good friends with hopes to sort the issue.
At least, the statement is he can come back, when he is ready for peace. We shall see.
Europe, yes we need to support Ukraine on this and arm ourselves and get a trained and effective army, because Putin is a clear danger to all of us and US is very likely to side with them or simply walk out of the Nato agreement. So we will have to go solo and we need to face that, now.
But we should gently (or not so gently) lead Zelensky to that table, to find out which terms are on it. Not to sell Ukraine or affect its sovereignity, but to get a permanent ceasefire. It is overdue and this war needs to end. I do get his fears, this happened before and Putin just violated the agreements, but we need to give it a try for the sake of the Ukranians.

AlisonDonut · 02/03/2025 08:34

Business people always start high - I don't think Zelenski is used to a negotiation rather than fawning backslapping 'here have all the money'.

And I don't see any other alternatives on his table. Perhaps he could suggest some? Maybe in front of a press conference?

MushMonster · 02/03/2025 08:35

mumda · 02/03/2025 07:35

Interesting.

I think the BBC have just said that 2.5bn being given to Ukraine is secured on frozen Russian assets.

How's that work?

The assets are frozen, so seized and they use the profits to fund Ukraine. But, if they follow the law, they cannot take the assets themselves.
So, those are Zelensky's cards in the negotiations. If the countries the assets are in will back him up and should they decide to actually take the asset itself as payment to rebuild Ukraine. Or keep the assets frozen until it is paid. Or whatever.
All these will be part of the negotiations. The land, the rights to join Nato, EU, sanctions, presence of Nato troops as peacekeepers, rebuilding of areas affected, trade or no trade deals ( mind you, economic and trade sanctions are a big heavy tool here), return of POW and children ( that Russia has stolen from Ukraine!), re-arming of Ukraine, and so on and on...

Purplelodestone · 02/03/2025 08:38

@Porcuporpoise "I don't think just fawning over the orange fool whilst signing away your mineral rights without receiving any security guarantees in return would have been a good outcome for Ukraine."

Surely it would have been better than having any more Ukranians killed - 400,000 to date ?

Ukraine wanted to be a sovereign country and be independent from Russia. Now they need to pull on their 'big boy pants' and do that without expecting other countries to bail them out.

They have plenty of assets locked away - huge deposits of critical elements and minerals, including lithium and titanium, as well as sizeable coal, gas, oil and uranium deposits - supplies worth billions of dollars.
They should have started liquidating these assets in 1991

crossstitchingnana · 02/03/2025 08:39

Cleardays · 02/03/2025 07:36

This is a good analysis from Konstan.

I thought that clip was appalling, and T&V were bullies.

But every fool and his dog knows that Trump loves praise and his ego being massaged, and Zelensky needed to play that game.

Also, Trump prises loyalty above all else and rewards it. When he saw ‘his’ man being criticized, he was of course going to come firmly down on Vance’s side by attacking Zelensky.

The comment about Putin coming for USA next, Trump would have hated. He loves power and strength and any intimation that America could be weak or vulnerable would have landed like a sack of shit.

My thoughts exactly.

Porcuporpoise · 02/03/2025 08:42

@Purplelodestone with no security guarantees how would any deal stop more Ukrainians being killed? Trading resources for security is one thing, but just giving them away?

TaggieO · 02/03/2025 08:47

Dollydaydream100 · 01/03/2025 21:21

I agree with everything in your OP.

What Trump and Vance said was true - but their delivery was extremely unfortunate and made Zelenskyy, who stayed calm, look like a hero.

When Trump said Z was going to start WW3 he was right.

I think the hysteria is a bit like Brexit mark II, those who shout loudest etc - not necessarily what the majority are thinking, but most can't be arsed getting into it and being called "evil bigots" "rape apologists" "thick" etc.

I wonder how many of those spouting unfailing (and never ending) support for Ukraine (70% of who's population want the war to end NOW) will be happy to wave their sons and grandsons off to war?

It's all well and good to want to appear virtuous and be on the "good guys" side - but the reality is giving Ukraine more money and support is just dragging this out even longer and putting our country in a very dangerous position - especially now the US are out.

He absolutely isn’t though. PUTIN is going to start WW3. Remember him? The dictator who invaded Zelenskyy’s country? How is Russia invading Zelenskyy’s fault?

It’s akin to saying a woman deserved to be raped because she wore a short skirt.

Teencentral · 02/03/2025 08:50

There's a table in the Times today showing how much aid various countries have paid to Ukraine, the US has paid $114 billion next is Germany with $29 billion then the UK with $14 billion, I do think it's an absolutely valid question from the US as to why it is them that are paying so much.

TaggieO · 02/03/2025 08:51

Dollydaydream100 · 01/03/2025 21:21

I agree with everything in your OP.

What Trump and Vance said was true - but their delivery was extremely unfortunate and made Zelenskyy, who stayed calm, look like a hero.

When Trump said Z was going to start WW3 he was right.

I think the hysteria is a bit like Brexit mark II, those who shout loudest etc - not necessarily what the majority are thinking, but most can't be arsed getting into it and being called "evil bigots" "rape apologists" "thick" etc.

I wonder how many of those spouting unfailing (and never ending) support for Ukraine (70% of who's population want the war to end NOW) will be happy to wave their sons and grandsons off to war?

It's all well and good to want to appear virtuous and be on the "good guys" side - but the reality is giving Ukraine more money and support is just dragging this out even longer and putting our country in a very dangerous position - especially now the US are out.

Also, nice casual sexism there. Any reason women can’t go to war….?

And it’s not about waving our sons and daughters off to fight for Ukraine. Putin isn’t going to be stopping with “just a bit of Ukraine”. It’ll be a bit more. And then all of it. Then comes Poland and Slovakia, Australia and Germany. France. And then it’s our turn. So do we get behind the very real need to stop Putin now, or wait til he’s invading the South Coast with his new empire that’s 3 times the size of what he has now and only then worry that we should have been more vocal in stopping him earlier…?

TaggieO · 02/03/2025 08:52

Teencentral · 02/03/2025 08:50

There's a table in the Times today showing how much aid various countries have paid to Ukraine, the US has paid $114 billion next is Germany with $29 billion then the UK with $14 billion, I do think it's an absolutely valid question from the US as to why it is them that are paying so much.

If you look at it in terms of tax cost to citizens per head it’s really not much more at all.

Needtosoundoffandbreathe · 02/03/2025 08:52

Trump hates anyone disagreeing with him, but Zelenskyy was absolutely right to stand up to the pair of bullies and it's looking more and more like it was a set up, an ambush. There's more at stake than a rare minerals deal with the US. Strikes me that Trump has agreed a carve up of Ukraine with Putin and he's pissed off that Zelenskyy won't just roll over and give up Ukraine to the immoral pair of them. This may even be Trump's get out so he can say to Vlad, "Look I tried, but Zelenskyy won't play ball". Trump is entirely self-serving despite his MAGA mantra.

billysboy · 02/03/2025 08:53

Teencentral · 02/03/2025 08:50

There's a table in the Times today showing how much aid various countries have paid to Ukraine, the US has paid $114 billion next is Germany with $29 billion then the UK with $14 billion, I do think it's an absolutely valid question from the US as to why it is them that are paying so much.

Absolutely this ! its not dissimilar to Nato contributions

spuddy4 · 02/03/2025 08:54

Teencentral · 02/03/2025 08:50

There's a table in the Times today showing how much aid various countries have paid to Ukraine, the US has paid $114 billion next is Germany with $29 billion then the UK with $14 billion, I do think it's an absolutely valid question from the US as to why it is them that are paying so much.

Completely agree. I don't understand why people think it's unacceptable to want to know where the money has gone.

TaggieO · 02/03/2025 08:58

Let’s also not forget that the money is not actually being loaned from the US or the UK’s funds - it’s against frozen Russian assets.

MaggieMistletoe · 02/03/2025 09:09

I wholeheartedly agree OP. Trump is not an eloquent man and morally dubious in some ways - as is pointed out ad infinitum. But he is trying to do the right thing. Zelensky is admirable in his way but he got this wrong, and Trump is right.
What fascinates me about this is people's emotional reactions to the conversation in the oval office. People have become so uncomfortable with confrontation, so brainwashed with 'be kind', so used to soft and weak politicians like Starmer who stand for nothing and achieve nothing other than protecting their own interests, that they are highly uncomfortable seeing men like Trump get hard stuff done. I agreed with pretty much everything Trump said, the way in which he said it and Zelensky's feelings seem like a small factor to me when you look at what's at stake, how serious the situation is and how long it has dragged on for. Trump is doing what needs to be done IMO.
Also, people say Trump is up Putin's arse but surely part of being a statesman is careful flattery, how would it make sense for Trump to trash Putin publicly? Of course it makes sense for him to try and have a good relationship with him.

I also appreciated the transparency of the discussion being televised, can you imagine Biden doing the same?

I have never said this before but I agree that Mumsnet is just essentially, 'orange man bad' and nothing Trump says or does will ever have merit in their eyes. Some of the infantile language being used on this thread calling him 'nasty' and 'horrible', honestly it sounds so childish. Have a look historically at the tough approach that British PM's have had to take, our cowardly politicians in the UK today are no yardstick to measure by.

ForeverScout · 02/03/2025 09:10

spuddy4 · 02/03/2025 08:54

Completely agree. I don't understand why people think it's unacceptable to want to know where the money has gone.

Not unacceptable, but not worth a deal that gives so much away for blind trust in a ceasefire from Putin ... which is a guarantee you can and should wipe your arse on. It is less than worthless.

Beyond that, the US has tipped the world in its favour by fair means and foul for many decades - crying victim in a system that has enriched themselves at the expense of others is a little much. (Though to be fair, much of the benefit has gone to a few rather than the population as a whole).

kattaduck · 02/03/2025 09:15

Teencentral · 02/03/2025 08:50

There's a table in the Times today showing how much aid various countries have paid to Ukraine, the US has paid $114 billion next is Germany with $29 billion then the UK with $14 billion, I do think it's an absolutely valid question from the US as to why it is them that are paying so much.

Because they have a way higher GDP than any other country. If we talk per GDP 11 European countries have paid more than the US and as a whole Europe has given more than the US. So no it is not a valid question.

MaggieMistletoe · 02/03/2025 09:16

There needs to be an investigation into the more than 200 billion that has apparently been sent to the Ukraine as aid in recent years. Zelensky himself has said they haven't received the amounts that countries state they have sent. So what's happened to the money? Huge amounts of money laundering has gone on IMO. I don't believe Zelensky himself is personally profiting so who is? My first suspicions is the Biden family.

TaggieO · 02/03/2025 09:18

MaggieMistletoe · 02/03/2025 09:09

I wholeheartedly agree OP. Trump is not an eloquent man and morally dubious in some ways - as is pointed out ad infinitum. But he is trying to do the right thing. Zelensky is admirable in his way but he got this wrong, and Trump is right.
What fascinates me about this is people's emotional reactions to the conversation in the oval office. People have become so uncomfortable with confrontation, so brainwashed with 'be kind', so used to soft and weak politicians like Starmer who stand for nothing and achieve nothing other than protecting their own interests, that they are highly uncomfortable seeing men like Trump get hard stuff done. I agreed with pretty much everything Trump said, the way in which he said it and Zelensky's feelings seem like a small factor to me when you look at what's at stake, how serious the situation is and how long it has dragged on for. Trump is doing what needs to be done IMO.
Also, people say Trump is up Putin's arse but surely part of being a statesman is careful flattery, how would it make sense for Trump to trash Putin publicly? Of course it makes sense for him to try and have a good relationship with him.

I also appreciated the transparency of the discussion being televised, can you imagine Biden doing the same?

I have never said this before but I agree that Mumsnet is just essentially, 'orange man bad' and nothing Trump says or does will ever have merit in their eyes. Some of the infantile language being used on this thread calling him 'nasty' and 'horrible', honestly it sounds so childish. Have a look historically at the tough approach that British PM's have had to take, our cowardly politicians in the UK today are no yardstick to measure by.

Please name 5 successful things Trump has “got done” so far. I don’t mean all the lunatic executive orders he’s already having to walk back on. Please go ahead and demonstrate what he’s ACTUALLY got done.

Thecatatemyplants · 02/03/2025 09:19

Yep that about covers it OP. I agree with KK.

AlisonDonut · 02/03/2025 09:19

kattaduck · 02/03/2025 09:15

Because they have a way higher GDP than any other country. If we talk per GDP 11 European countries have paid more than the US and as a whole Europe has given more than the US. So no it is not a valid question.

It IS a valid question that EVERY country that paid money to Ukraine should be asking. The conundrum is why aren't they?

We are all invested in an outcome that saves the planet from WW3 so someone needs to have some sort of resolution.

kattaduck · 02/03/2025 09:20

spuddy4 · 02/03/2025 08:54

Completely agree. I don't understand why people think it's unacceptable to want to know where the money has gone.

Well that's where the money went:
https://www.cfr.org/article/how-much-us-aid-going-ukraine
Notice how vast amount of the money has been spend in the US on US manufactured goods?

lavenderlou · 02/03/2025 09:21

Ukraine, a much smaller and poorer country has spent three years staving off the invasion of one of the world's largest military powers and managing not to lose any more of its territory. This keeps Russia at bay from.the rest of Europe. Surely that's where the money has gone?

SunshinDay · 02/03/2025 09:23

@Genevieva I heard this morning it will come out of the fund set aside for Ed miliband

AlisonDonut · 02/03/2025 09:25

lavenderlou · 02/03/2025 09:21

Ukraine, a much smaller and poorer country has spent three years staving off the invasion of one of the world's largest military powers and managing not to lose any more of its territory. This keeps Russia at bay from.the rest of Europe. Surely that's where the money has gone?

I don't think paying for humans to sacrifice themselves is a viable use of money to be honest. I'd much rather they worked to end this than endlessly throwing Ukrainians into the line of fire.