Exactly! I’m not sure the OP understands the economics of farming, or indeed running a business.
In simple terms a moderately well run arable farm will make around £200 ~ £250 a hectare profit, before finance costs and tax. A hectare of average arable land costs around £28k. So, the average return, before tax is less than 1% (0.8%). Out of that needs to come finance costs, investments in new tech/ efficiency/ environmental improvements. But let’s pretend the farm is unmortgaged and requires no investment.
Over a 40 year generational cycle, that means a 30ish% cumulative return. Which, if subject to IHT at 40% is more than the profit that the farm will ever have made, and therefore more than the cash available to pay the tax. The Government have decided that they’ll half the IHT for farms…but that still means for 40 years work, and assuming no mortgage costs, investment or drawings / dividends to the farmer, they be looking at a 10% return over 40 years - 0.25% return a year.
The result therefore is, on death, many farms are likely to be sold
The two possible outcomes then are:
(1) An increasingly fragmented farming sector, as parts of farms get sold to pay IHT and we end up with more, smaller farms, which will be inefficient and lead to higher food prices or,
(2) Consolidation of land (when sold) in the hands of fewer and fewer ultra wealthy, and probably foreign, investors whose long term aim is control of the entire food supply chain.
Neither are great outcomes, and the second, which I think is more likely, is very bad news for us all.
The story is the same for all privately owned businesses though, as they to fall into the chancellors IHT net under the proposed changes, which will lead to the death of private SMEs, and again an increasing consolidation of assets in the hands of the ultra rich.. They just don’t have such a well organised body to vocalise it.
So, be careful where the politics of ideology and envy lead you…