State school 6th forms oversubscribed

[LordGiveMeStrength]

AIBU to be concerned about the impact the new VAT on private schools will have on state school 6th forms?

Our local 6th form open days have been jam packed with so many year 11s moving from private schools.

Issues I see:

1. kids who have been at the local state secondary school since year 7 have been told their space in the 6th form is not guaranteed and if they don’t get as high GCSE results as other potential pupils they will not have a spot. The nearest private schools have amazing GCSE results so very likely to displace existing students to other state school options a far distance from their homes.
2. infrastructure - the local school is already heaving so accommodating a huge influx is not possible, buildings are already crumbling and it will take a long time before investment actually happens to improve the facilities.
3. false economy- currently kids in private schools don’t cost the government to be educated. Government’s plans are that money raised from VAT will pay for additional teachers (but I don’t see that happening immediately). If lots of private schools kids move to the state system not only will government not collect that VAT, but they will all be liable for educating pupils who previously were in the private sector. I believe the current cost from central government to educate in 6th form is £5k with additional payments for more academic subjects (eg further maths A level pupils will equal an additional £900 per pupil per year in the state schools). Apologies if these sums aren’t correct.

https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/private-school-parents-vat-state-sixth-forms-3473062?srsltid=AfmBOopXOi5842QMq-qO1NqHGR9g9-4BOi6Gc0v_dlhBbFBTMmU5Prsi

Those who are in the now more elite schools can weather that. Those at the other end will pay more and feel it.

Agreed. It was the private school children who had been used to having their coursework carefully "tweaked" and who had been allowed to keep resetting a level modules who floundered at university.

And as this thread has demonstrated, it's always a good idea for them to rub shoulders with state school children earlier rather than later so they don't continue to believe the myth that they are inherently more intelligent. Because if they don't learn that at 6th form they will definitely discover it when they get to university

Believe me state school parents have far more serious concerns than a few nice private school kids joining at sixth form!

The current schhol years 11,12 and 13 were high birth rate years. The birth rate increased up to 2008, remained steady to 2012, and now it's dropping. The sixth forms, along with all schools both private and state, will have to adjust (redundancies possibly).

I mean, let's not buy into the myth all private school kids are nice. My brother and lots of my friends went to private school. Their tales of drug use and bullying made my eyes pop out, it was nothing I ever experienced at my state school.

Oh agree! But human nature if they’re in the minority going into a new environment I guess most would be on their best behaviour! Am
biased as dds mates at various local privates and are lovely girls Dd would love
it if they joined her school!

@madmadamweb couldn't agree with you more, I'm actually trying to get my son into a bigger school with a bigger six form so he mixes with more people and gets a broader view of life. He's in a state school now which is quite small so worried he won't be ready for the big world of Uni.

Why then are the actual government figures the opposite, with a projection of increases in 16–19 cohort numbers of 13% more by 2027-2028 and beyond? (As per the Gov.uk funding of 16-19 education document I attached upthread?)

2010/11/12 were higher than or equal to the years you mention. It peaked in 2010 and remained fairly constant for the following 2 years. Children born in those years are only in years 7/8/9/10, so the demand for 6th places won't start to tail off for a few years yet.

@neverthelastone

"Why then are the actual government figures the opposite, with a projection of increases in 16–19 cohort numbers of 13% more by 2027-2028 and beyond? (As per the Gov.uk funding of 16-19 education document I attached upthread?)"

Because the poster has gone the high birth rate years wrong. The highest was 2010, and remained steady until it started to tail off in 2013. This affects current school years 7/8/9/10. There's another 5 years before the reduced birth rate will affect 6th form places.

Our local sixth firm collehe closed its entries early this year and it's the first year they've applied some of thier school/distance criteria. Actually for private school pupils wanting to transfer this has been a challenge if they live further out, as some specific state schools are given priority due some deal with the dfe and funding. Basically the local states are not allowed thier own sixth forms.

They are anticipating a bulge til the current year 7s pitch up

I'm amazed at the entry requirements for some of state sixth forms referenced here. Where I live the maximum that was asked for was 42 points over 8 GCSEs ie 2 x 6 and 6 x 5
For some courses some (but not all) schools specified a 7 in a particular subject, but still within that 42 point general criteria

Very few will be going state to private esp with the added VAT

No one is saying it didn't happen before. The issue is the numbers

Although obviously with regional variations - some parts of London and the SE drop off much faster than other areas.

So if you're looking at the number of Year 11s: between 2023/24 and 2033/34 there are a number of areas where pupil numbers will be higher because the bulge comes later and takes longer to feed through.

So in Kent it's forecast to be 8.9% higher, with lower increases in other regions such as Essex, Leicestershire and Northamptonshire and the West Mids among others.

Meanwhile Inner West London will be 23.4% lower, outer London, pretty much all of the South West, Cumbria, North Yorkshire and other areas all dropping off a lot faster.

I'm using the London Data Store interactive tool for the data - it really shows the pace of change in some areas and backs up what we feel like we've experienced locally - 2023/24 Year 7 was a beast of a year for admissions and catchments were very tight, and for this year's Year 7 the catchment for pretty much every school, including the most oversubscribed, was about 500m bigger.

There's plenty of capacity almost everywhere. Oversubscription will be very localised. It's currently around 3,000 across England, Scotland and Wales (or was in November), a drop in the ocean compared to the roughly 717,000 18-year-olds in the UK and the 20,000 children from Ukraine absorbed by the state school system.

So what are the numbers? I mean it's quite likely VAT will have an impact, but my issue is the way the Op stated that open evenings were jam packed with absolute hordes of private school pupils desperate to join state schools. Yet she can't possibly know this for a fact, and it's annoying when people just want to whip up an angle without any specific data.
Apparently around 6-7% of pupils are educated privately, but this is anything up to 17% at 6th form, presumably due to a number of young people going into training rather than staying on at school. So in September, if this data changes significantly, you can then discuss the impacts this will have.

London is very competitive.

There are lots of alternative options obviously, but people also want their children to go to the best school for whatever the next steps are.

London also has a high proportion of children in private education.

When you have state 6th forms asking for those kind of entry grades, they are likely to have sizeable cohorts chasing offers from very competitive university courses.

I have a child in state in Y11 and am talking to lots of other parents in the same cohort who are applying to the schools like King's Maths School, BRIT (up to 2,000 applying for 50 places on some of their courses) and the most selective 6th forms. These parents are state and private - and people are very aware that competition is going to be more intense this year than last.

It's not a case of thinking the private students are cleverer or going to have higher grades. Any student coming out with the scores needed for these schools is clever. It's about the increased numbers fighting for the same spot.

Bit like super-selective 11 plus where it's not passing the exam that counts, it's passing with a score high enough to be in the top 120 students who took the exam.

@OhCrumbsWhereNow
This is really interesting...I was always of the opinion that London state schools were excellent and that one would be mad to waste one's money on private, but maybe it depends on area. Friends' children have gone to Cardinal Vaughan, The London Oratory and Sacred Heart, Orleans Park and to be honest, the teaching sounds better than some private schools I know.
Glad we don't have to compete! Sounds stressful...

There are loads of amazing ones - and some not so amazing ones. But for some you need to live on the doorstep in very expensive postcodes, or get aptitude places, or spend the relevant number of years praying etc.

There are lots of reasons people also choose private - SEN, poor choice of local state, tradition, wanting to have smaller classes and less disruption, worry their children are easily led and likely to coast, wanting very selective and no grammars etc.

But, when you have potentially been spending £££ for years, and now there's an extra 20%, a lot of parents with children with really high grade predictions are thinking that actually if they target a really high ask state 6th form there won't be the disruptive elements, and they can save the fee money to pay university upfront or house deposit etc. If child is already on track for stellar GCSEs, is the value added enough to keep them in private? The sports facilities, theatre and exciting extra curriculars that were so appealing when child was 11 may not be so important if they have two left feet and would rather spend their time coding than on stage.

Having recently done the calculations, a 3 year degree in London with the full maintenance is heading for £70k borrowing... and may well increase. That's a huge chunk of debt to be starting life with.

So the problem is more competition for the very selective six forms rather than a lack of six form places overall?

Correct.

The government has to guarantee a place somewhere for all 16-18 year olds. There are masses of FE colleges offering BTECs, A levels etc. But there is huge competition for the top 6th forms.

DD's comp doesn't have anywhere near enough spaces for everyone that wants to stay on, and so they have a high grade ask for those spaces, and a huge number of applicants for anything left over on Results Day.

If you know there is a queue of kids with all grade 9s wanting a place, that's a lot of pressure now on children to achieve the grades to be able to stay on at school with the friends and teachers they have known for 5 years.

If they don't get the grades, you are then competing as an external candidate elsewhere and trying to find a new school that offers the subjects you want and the right level.

Some schools closed applications early this year. Lots of children have applied to 5 or 6 schools and had interviews, reports, references etc.

Aren’t the pupils who are already there prioritised over external candidates? That's the way it works in the great majority of areas. It seems very unusual that there aren't enough spaces for pupils that are already there if they have achieved the minimum criteria. My children went to a grammar school and the sixth form asked for quite high grades but the grades they asked external candidates for were higher than the internal candidates.

Regardless, It's hardly surprising if schools achieve very good A level grades if all students achieved grade nines at GCSE. It doesn't mean the standard of teaching is any better than anywhere else.

Yes they are prioritised, but the grades asked for are very high, and the level of competition means that if you slip a grade and don't hit the ask then there is unlikely to be any leeway as the places can be filled many times over by higher scoring external candidates.

And yes, unsurprising the schools get great A level grades.

But, if your child is the one who just misses getting enough for the place, they are now the external candidate everywhere else, and therefore unlikely to get a school that is at the same level (as they will also be prioritising their internal candidates first).

I'm in the fortunate position of not competing in the bun fight - DD is very SEN and has her sights set elsewhere - but there are a lot of parents who are more stressed this year than normal as schools have a) upped the ask for A level entrance and b) more applications.

There are also private school parents stressed as they know they will need 8s and 9s across the board to have a decent shot at the top state 6th forms.

I went to a super-selective grammar (not in London) and they have lower requirements than many London comps for 6th form.

Lol maybe SOME elite London schools. Not necessarily ones like Eastlea comp in Canning Town for example