To pay for private school instead of moving?

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This is a very non urgent conundrum as we have one toddler and one baby on the way.
We live in a reasonably trendy suburb with £140k mortgage left, but expect our household earnings in 2 years time to be around £120k per annum. They are lower at the moment due to part time working / training.
We thought we were ok with kids going to local comp which seemed nice enough but realised the pass rate for getting a 5 in GCSE English and maths is 50%.
Although both state educated we attended schools with over a 95% pass rate, and we felt a bit concerned that we maybe weren't going to be giving our kids the same opportunities we had been afforded.
We looked at a grammar school area but obviously competition is fierce and the comps in the area are then generally worse than the one we are in catchment for now. So could spend a fortune on moving only to not get into grammar.
We thought we could buy a house next to an outstanding state school (with over 90% stats on the same metrics) but we would have to borrow an additional £300k just to have a similar standard of house to what we have now, and that is less convenient in terms of commute and amenities.
We probably would extend the house we are in, but even though £15k per year per child seems galling, would we be best off just paying for private school and enjoying the area we live in otherwise?
Or should we move to an area with better schools?

YANBU - stay put and pay private
YANBU - invest in property rather than fees and move

£15.000 per year per child
for Primary
or for Secondary
or both Primary and Secondary ?

From what 2 years time ? depending on age of ' toddler '
for 12 years ?

1. it won't be £15,000 a year in 2 years time ?
2. it won't be £15,000 a year for all these years
3. Does the price not increase as the child progresses through Primary School
4. Does the price not increase at Secondary School level
5. Then of course you have University to consider...

How about paying for extra tuition and stay at the sub-par state school?

Either that or pay for private school. The state school options with moving house don't sound reliable.

Sorry I wasn't clear this is for secondary hence why it's a non urgent issue!

No intention of using private primary.

You are nearly a decade away from Senior school age, and schools can change beyond recognition in that time. Areas can go up or plummet in terms of parental aspiration. Equally, the private school market will change. Moving now is pointless.

I'd try to save £15k per year now. Put it in an ISA and build up a decent float. Good state primary schools are much easier to find than good state secondaries, so start them off in state and see how they get on.

You could move them across at 8 or at 11 if necessary, depending on how you think they are progressing and what state provision is like at the time.

Labour may be out of power by then and VAT on fees cancelled. So many things can change.

My DS went to state primary, but was miserable by year 5. I wish I could have moved him to private three years earlier than I did. But shifting across at 11 worked and he now has 10 good GCSEs, is happy and is doing maths, physics and design tech A'levels, aiming for an engineering degree.

Keep your options open.

I was hoping if we literally moved to the road the outstanding state comprehensive is on we would get a place as that own isn't selective- but yes not guaranteed and costly. Also a risk of change of SLT and declining standards etc

Would be happy to pay for extra tutoring, just want them to have the same opportunities DH and I did! I know everyone thinks their child is G&T and I don't know whether my DC will be or not but my toddler loves museums, reading etc and would like them to have the chance to pursue what they'd like academically.

The most important thing, longer term, is getting into [whatever] university. So that could affect your decisions. At toddler stage you probably don't yet know the genius!

I think for me the important thing is for them to be in an environment that encourages learning- I just don't want them to end up underachieving and regret it or be somewhere where lessons are disrupted.
I don't want to pressure them to get a certain set of grades or go to university.

Thank I think you're right! I think I was worried about unsettling them by moving once they've got established friends etc but I think time will tell

London is transient, friendship groups change all the time.
Private secondary fees from Sept 25 are due to move toward the £10k per term mark, in 10 years time they will be the option for the super rich only.

Sorry if this sounds condescending. Are you sure that’s the price per annum and not per term? I’m up north and it’s about £30k a year per child. (With some variation but none as low as 15 near me)

I take it back I’ve just looked and it’s worse than I thought. My two localish schools - sedbugh is £15.5k a term and giggleswick is 13.5k a term.

Fees will vary from school to school and be dependent on area. The most academically selective private school near us is £8,700 per term for secondary. It’s ranked 5th nationally in terms of the number of students getting into Oxbridge, so definitely a top school.

No problem, the one that is easy distance for us is roughly £5.5k a term with the VAT included, so technically £16.5k a year but I rounded down in the OP.
There is another not as convenient which is roughly £14k +VAT

Do you know if the private school you're considering is good academically/pastorally or are you just assuming this because it's private?

Agree with another poster those are very low fees, in my area all private secondaries are £35k + per year.

£15,000 a year seems really low, how have you arrived at that figure? I think you’d need to budget at least 10k per term unfortunately. Even if you have your sights on a particular school that charges a lot less than average you can’t guarantee that it’ll even be around in its current guise by the time your now toddler reaches secondary age. Equally a lot could change with the state secondaries between now and then. And that’s without personal stuff like future job opportunities and what will best suit your children. It wouldn’t be a bad idea to start saving now just to keep your options open but if you’re going for state primary then I wouldn’t give this any more thought until your eldest is in Y3. Right now there are too many unknowns.

Also agree with other posters that it's quite early to be making fixed plans about these things - even without VAT many private schools have been increasing their fees by 5-10% annually anyway and parents have had to suck it up. Will your household income be able to tolerate these kind of price rises? Will there be a back up plan if one of you loses your job?

FWIW, we're in a similar position to you in many ways although have a substantially bigger household income (£300k +) but we'd be nervous about committing to these kind of fees as we don't have the backup of grandparental income that some people have. Our local state secondary is average but for me it's important that my children integrate with their community and people from different walks of life. I went to a top private school and it was really very sheltered - I don't want the same for my children.

Stay where you are, send kids to comp, chill out and have amazing holidays.

Kids like yours will be in top sets and do very well, I can virtually guarantee it.

If you do move, you need to looking at moving y4 at the latest. It takes longer than you think and moving y4 gives you a buffer against chains collapsing etc so you are in place by the time you need to apply in y6.

Have you ever considered moving to a grammar area with good comps? Spend your money on 11+ prep and if they're bright they thrive. A lot less than having to spend a fortune on 7 years of secondary school x2.

You see part of my mulling is I'm not sure that's true at all!

To move to the area that has both grammar and state school we would have to borrow an additional £400-£500k to have a house- even an apartment would be double what our house value is now!

Whereas if we paid for private we actually could get a bigger house in a cheaper area without worrying about catchments. I'm going to chill out a bit now anyway after the advice on here and just see where life takes us.

I think we will stay put, extend, review Y3/Y4.

Are you sure the fees are only £5k per term OP? Where is this? Fees here are now £11-£12k per term, plus extras for music or drama lessons or trips.

I think you need to look at the individual private school and decide if it's any good. Don't assume anything and keep an eye on it in the coming years Some are great, but others are money for the old ropes.

My daughter started private school in year 5 and the fees have risen dramatically since (now year 11). Not only that, the bus is an additional £600 per term and then they add extras. They send regular emails saying things like year 11 are visiting the Tate Modern and the cost will be added to your next bill. I’m not sure it’s worth the cost

Trust me fees ain't staying at £15 ours started at £12k in year 5 and are now £19k in year 8!!!!

By the time this child is in sixth form fees will £28k a year!!!!!!!

So we have two kids and have gone from paying £24k a year to £36k a year. Just don't even start.

Do Grammar or a good comp. As a household that has about £200k income we are struggling big time cos of these fees and can't move home.

Music about £250 per instrument per term, school trips, uniforms, clubs out of school. It's a bloody killer.

I was you, trying to sort everything when my first child was still in utero.

Moved from Area A to Area B, close to Amazing primary. Lived there for a while, DC2 turned out to be twins, waited for DC1 to start school, moved to a house next to Area A for space.

Children are all still primary so who knows but - I'd stay put through early primary at least. Your understanding of what makes a genuinely good school, and insight into leavers'/secondary destinations, will be so much better in a few years. Even with the best research in the world now.