To pay for private school instead of moving?

[Gijjjj]

This is a very non urgent conundrum as we have one toddler and one baby on the way.
We live in a reasonably trendy suburb with £140k mortgage left, but expect our household earnings in 2 years time to be around £120k per annum. They are lower at the moment due to part time working / training.
We thought we were ok with kids going to local comp which seemed nice enough but realised the pass rate for getting a 5 in GCSE English and maths is 50%.
Although both state educated we attended schools with over a 95% pass rate, and we felt a bit concerned that we maybe weren't going to be giving our kids the same opportunities we had been afforded.
We looked at a grammar school area but obviously competition is fierce and the comps in the area are then generally worse than the one we are in catchment for now. So could spend a fortune on moving only to not get into grammar.
We thought we could buy a house next to an outstanding state school (with over 90% stats on the same metrics) but we would have to borrow an additional £300k just to have a similar standard of house to what we have now, and that is less convenient in terms of commute and amenities.
We probably would extend the house we are in, but even though £15k per year per child seems galling, would we be best off just paying for private school and enjoying the area we live in otherwise?
Or should we move to an area with better schools?

YANBU - stay put and pay private
YANBU - invest in property rather than fees and move

We are in nearly the exact same position. Move to an outstanding state or pay private and stay put. We’ve chosen private. We’re in a grammar area and the private school have a 50% success rate in getting children in. It really sealed the deal when we went to view the school so I would recommend a tour so you can get a feel of the place which might help your decision… as a former state schooler it was quite an eye opener!

We’re buying another property to let out so that our overall equity is the same, so we’re not worth ‘less’ at the end of it, just sacrificing a bigger house for a better education. Seems a no brainer. We are earning c£180k combined though, but have higher mortgage. So probably net neutral.

I'd move tbh, birth rates are falling, taxes may go up & who knows if your planned private school will exist or what the fees will be.

I would plan for private, overpay on your mortgage now with the plan of it being wiped by the time they would start in Y7, and save towards the fees on top if you can. You can then make the decision a bit later to move or pay. Personally I would pay to go private - financial outlay is similar, the state is more likely to fluctuate, which would also put your homes value at risk, and you will be in the area that you want to be in. But really, it will depend on how all the schools are, a few years down the line.

Any private school that cheap is probably not that good and will have probably closed down before then.
Forward planning is a good thing but everything changes.

I would wonder if you can afford private for 2 children on that take home pay. Do your sums. Allow for at least a 10-15% year on year fee increase, allow for uniform, allow for transport, extra curricular activities, equipment or instruments for extra curricular activities, trips. It will be a lot more than you expect.

Both your poll options say YANBU so your poll will be off

I completely understand where you are coming from but I just want to give some perspective from a different angle.

Both my DC when little were always keen on learning, enjoyed museums and learning. As they have grown I have 1 very academic child and 1 who hates it.

We started off in private school but felt it wasn't achieving what we hoped. Instead for our DC1 who isn't academic but did get pass all GCDEs with great scores was put the money into things she loves. So this was more the arts. She's now a high achiever in her area. Don't want to say too much as outing.

My DC who is academic went to the same average school and is excelling. We again are spending our money on their hobby that they want to turn into a career and have the ability to do so.

I guess my advice is with guidance and help in the right areas private school doesn't have to be the only option. An average school with the children being focused on doing well, along with good extra curricular activities and life experiences means children can still achieve great things.

A child my DC went to school with stayed with private education and still didn't pass all GCSEs. His options for further education were limited and it is unlikely he can do the career he wanted without no resitting some subjects and there was no additional needs, they just felt they didn't need to try too hard in private school for some reason.

£120k household income will not put your children comfortably through private school. It's not enough and will be painful.

The local school that we are in catchment for has 28% of pupils achieving a 5 or above at GCSE in English and maths. Also, an Ofsted inspection that highlighted bullying issues. We went private for secondary.

Another option. Ignore secondary school. Revisit in options in 9 years. You could move to right next door to an outstanding secondary school next year and in 9 years time you could be posting on Mumsnet about the problems of your local secondary schools all being in special measures!

Any private school that cheap is probably not that good and will have probably closed down before then.

Agree

As others have said, just wait and see. Especially as you are not planning private primary. A lot can change in the next 7 years

Borrowing the additional for the house is likely a better investment than private education if you look at it from numbers alone. Your property will increase in value and you can move back once they have finished school, you will then own a house outright and be free of the mortgage.

But it is not as simple as that, watch your children's personalities develop and then decide what you believe is the best choice for them.

I also agree with others that £15k is very cheap for secondary education - you want to see the school and be sure exactly what it does and doesn't include. Also see other more expensive private schools and the states to compare. If the school is still here by the time your children reach secondary, I would not be surprised if the fees were over £30k by then. I was speaking to a parent who has a child at a well-known local private all through school - when their child started in Reception, fees were £14k per year. The child is now in Y8 and they are paying £36k after VAT - the increase is mind-blowing

National average pass maths and English at grade 5 is just under 50% so your local school is about average. On the compare school gov website you can look at the figures for prior achievement. Don't judge a school on one metric when all schools have a different intake. DS went to our local (outstanding and high progress 8) comprehensive. He is at a high ranking university with a student from a local private school. Glad we saved the £32k it would have cost us to send him there for 2 years.

Agree

Stay put and pay for tutors

Doh thank you risks of posting in the early hours

I know fees can and will rise but all the private schools near me cost about the same
There another one we could use which is £4,772 per term inclusive of VAT for this year

I do realise that it could well be tight and there may be sacrifices to be made
However we are in a position in our current house to be able to overpay the mortgage and nearly eliminate it in the next 9 years so hopefully then it may well be doable

My local comp went from special measures to Ofsted Good in 10 years. It has similar %'s averages for GCSEs but also has a list of pupils with 10 straight A's so is presumably catering for the very bright students too.

For me it is also about the discipline, the expectations of performance that are set and support for less able or SEND students who a) it turns out I have and b) by all accounts is a driver of poor behaviour when teens with learning difficulties are left to rot.

As it happens, due to the SEND my kids are in private school as we had to relocate due to lack of support at primary provision.

Personally, I'd get on with the savings, a lot can happen and frankly money gives you choices you might not otherwise have. £120k or even £150k by the time to start secondary won't stretch very far with two kids unless your mortgage is fully paid off and your outgoings otherwise super low. £50k pa after tax is a huge chunk of disposable income and fees typically go up around 6% per annum. In under 10 yrs, fees have doubled for us. We're very happy with the move we made but similarly, the additional mortgage cost to move to the "right" area for a great state school looked astronomical at the time.

50% getting a 5 in Maths and English is actually pretty high, I think the average is less than that. I have two in state where the % is something like 36%. A 4 is a pass so a 5 is a good pass.

School fees also go up fast, I have one in private and its around 10% a year, certainly above inflation and my pay rise. Its currently 16.5k per year without all the added uniform, trips, books, exams etc.

I am in a similar situation. We are not moving. Similar size house is at least £500k more which we can’t afford or get a mortgage for. Smaller house is around £300k more, downsizing is challenging as we both WFH and children are opposite sexes and can’t share a room.
we will pay for private secondary but not for private primary. Overall will cost us less than moving and guarantee a better school.

paying for tutoring does absolutely not compensate or compare to the offerings of most private schools.

In a decade, a currently 'failing' school could easily be outstanding so I wouldn't move now because of that.

I am intrigued roughly what area this is that you can get high quality secondary education in the private arena for less per year than we are paying per term.

The ex-grammars are much more reasonable than boarding schools. GSAL £5,481 per term, Bradford grammar £5,228 per term this year. These two are probably more the kind of school the op is looking out. But will not be charging this in 9-10 years time I imagine.

@Gijjjj Your mortgage repayments must be well below the school fees though. You don’t earn enough for 2 dc through private secondary. 14 years and most of it at the same time. So although you are quoting a very cheap school (why is it so cheap?) you will find paying fees x 2 way more demanding than your mortgage. I doubt you are paying £3,000 a month for that. With school extras this would be what you need for 2 dc.

I would consider moving to Bucks.13 grammar schools and secondaries, but they are not super selective and less difficult to get into. The best secondaries get similar results to your school with the grammar stream missing! So I would move - to Bucks.

It’s a rare comp that gets 90% GCSE grades 5-9 in maths and English unless it’s selective by the back door. CofE or RC who cherry pick?