To pay for private school instead of moving?

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This is a very non urgent conundrum as we have one toddler and one baby on the way.
We live in a reasonably trendy suburb with £140k mortgage left, but expect our household earnings in 2 years time to be around £120k per annum. They are lower at the moment due to part time working / training.
We thought we were ok with kids going to local comp which seemed nice enough but realised the pass rate for getting a 5 in GCSE English and maths is 50%.
Although both state educated we attended schools with over a 95% pass rate, and we felt a bit concerned that we maybe weren't going to be giving our kids the same opportunities we had been afforded.
We looked at a grammar school area but obviously competition is fierce and the comps in the area are then generally worse than the one we are in catchment for now. So could spend a fortune on moving only to not get into grammar.
We thought we could buy a house next to an outstanding state school (with over 90% stats on the same metrics) but we would have to borrow an additional £300k just to have a similar standard of house to what we have now, and that is less convenient in terms of commute and amenities.
We probably would extend the house we are in, but even though £15k per year per child seems galling, would we be best off just paying for private school and enjoying the area we live in otherwise?
Or should we move to an area with better schools?

YANBU - stay put and pay private
YANBU - invest in property rather than fees and move

The pass rate is meaningless. How bright are your kids?

I’ve never known a private school so cheap for secondary. Usually at least double that. Are you sure it’s a good private school?

Just be aware that fees go up annually ( inflation) without fail and schools usually get more expensive as the child moves up each year group.
So £15k this year could easily be £20k by the time your kids reach year 7 and over £25k per year by the time they leave . Don’t forget to also add in additional costs for trips and things like music lessons.
My dc have been in private for 3 years and we are paying £4k per year , per child more than when we started! And we did not get a big VAT increase.

By the time your kids are secondary age, anything could happen- you could relocate, split up from you partner, the school could completely change.
We had to relocate for work when our kids were a couple of years older than yours. We chose an area with an ofsted outstanding secondary school, then the head teacher left and it went downhill. Best laid plans. One DC went there and still did well, it didn't work out for the other so we went private.
It also hugely depends what area you are in. London school "market" is a different ball game altogether than the rest of the country

Are you in London by any chance? There are a lot of private schools in the north at around £15k a year

Yes a few in the North East Newcastle, Gateshead etc

Yorkshire

Are they only £15k including VAT?

yes, ours is

Just to answer the queries about the price- and yes it's inclusive of VAT.
The next two nearest are also similarly priced.
Two were established in the 1500s and one in 1600s so don't expect them to go out of business.

I know fees will rise as they were £9k per annum when we moved 6/7 years ago 😬

My DC fees are 7000 per term plus extras

Please don't be fooled into thinking a school that is cheap or one that's been there for centuries won't go out of business - ours did and I've heard of one in a different county that has.

They are a business and any business can be mismanaged, coupled with the cost of living and the VAT increase, many are really struggling.

Bolton School.

I would wonder what those fees actually cover! What are the extras? Food and books? I cannot see how fees can be this low given teachers cost the same more or less everywhere. They might have large endowments of course. Are they generous with bursaries? Or have they gone?

Op if it's £15k a year now in 10 years you're looking at about £9k a term so £27k a year.

I think that if you're working on that issue now, your child will be one of the 'pass' statistics anyway.

This thread is interesting for nothing other than the surprise about fees being so "low". The 30k level is for boarding. Day schools, 15-18ish is more normal, outside of the SE anyway. I wonder if more people knew it was half what they think it is we'd get less horrible bile about how only the uber rich can afford it and it's totally out of reach for any "normal" household. I child, two half decent incomes or one at maybe 50k which is a pretty modest graduate income and lower housing costs if out of the SE and it's perfectly doable.

I'm also wondering where all the posters are who ought to be upbraiding the OP for using their money to buy the privilege of moving to a good catchment.... absolutely no different to using it to pay fees but much more socially acceptable.

OP I would sit tight for now...look around again in 5-6 years and see where you are, what your child is like at school and what will be the best fit then.

You're a while away OP. Keep your options open as comps may have transformed for better or worse...
pay down your mortgage aggressively and start saving. You e then got the option in 10 years of moving to near an excellent state school or sending to private school.
Fwiw if it's a pretty much even split (or your new house would
Cost £300k and that's what you reckon fees will be) stay and get the private education.

Lots of good and sensible points raised on here. Op it’s great that you’re doing this research now, but the key thing I think is that you don’t need to make any decisions yet. See how primary goes, get to know what interests and abilities your dc have. Let them make local friends. Save as much money as you can, so you keep your options open.

What nobody has mentioned yet (I don’t think) is it very much depends on the child. They may have strong opinions - they may want to go to the local comp with their friends. Their friends may be a high achieving, studious bunch, or they may be the sort who’ll do anything to be the cool crowd, and good grades may not be cool. This may well influence your decision.

Your dc may be very sporty, and would benefit from the facilities and extra time devoted to sport at a private school. Similarly drama and music - you might decide that the private school having its own theatre is something your kids would get a huge amount from.

But, they may not be interested at all in such extra curricular stuff, in which case you’d be forking out for facilities they aren’t going to appreciate.

Think about their personalities. Are they driven, motivated, hard working? They’ll most likely still get As. Or are they more middling? Do they blossom with more encouragement and nurturing? If so, smaller class sizes where they won’t get lost, especially if they’re ’quiet middles’, could really benefit them.

What does the child want? Visit all the school options. See which is the best fit for the individual child, and their needs. Because it isn’t black and white.

The pass rate is meaningful because if half the kids are struggling to pass, the teachers will naturally be devoting a lot of time to bring them up from a 3 to a 4 or from a 4 to a 5. If you are a very able kid, how much energy can a teacher spend helping you get from a 7 to an 8 or a 9? Look at the school’s policy on setting (our local secondary only sets for maths which makes me very nervous).

It’s also not just about the grades you come out with but your experience of being in education. Will they have the experience of learning being fun, stretching, and exciting? Will they enjoy their time in the classroom? Some comprehensives in mixed areas do a fantastic job on that. Some private schools do not. But if your time at school is constant low level disruption and then feeling bored about sitting through the same material which you understood first time round because other people didn’t, education is something to be endured, even if you come out with straight 9s.

In your position I would start out in a state primary and save the money for secondary if it is needed. I wouldn’t move now - things may be different by the time your children start secondary. You can revisit the decision in year 3 or 4 and move in time for secondary admissions if you decide you want to. (My personal experience at our state primary has been that everything was great till Y5 and now the bad behaviour and constant disruption has suddenly started when they hit pre-pubescence.)

Yes I've been like a broken record on this thread making the point that fees in many parts of the UK are around £15k. So many posters seem 'shocked' by this. Exactly why the VAT issue doesn't impact the wealth, it's the middle income families who stretch to pay school fees who are impacted.

Where I am, school fees have risen from £9-£10k basic to over £11k per term for the 'London Day Schools' - St Paul's, G&L, Westminster etc. This pulls up the fees for the less competitive schools (which are still super-competitive).

When our eldest started in 'pre-prep' in 2008, fees were just over £3k per term. Fee increases are insane.

Our £15k fees cover everything other than uniform and trips.
No bursaries but 2x 25% academic scholarships each year and a decent discount for Teachers kids
You don't have to "see" it because I do when it goes out of my bank account. I also see the excellent results and brilliant all rounder kids that the school produces

Termly fees are more like £13-18k (adding on the VAT now) and you need to factor in the increases per year which are usually around 2 to 5%.

We did state primary but DC didn't cope well (loud peers and competitive tutoring for local grammars meant they were losing confidence and both ND) so we opted for private senior. They've settled well but now we've been clobbered by VAT so despite putting aside £ we won't have anything left for them post A Levels. Things can change very quickly from one year to the next meaning advance planning is impossible (we were considering paying off uni fees upfront - impossible now). My advice is to get through the primary years and see what kind of child you have - you may be able to avoid the extra expense if your kids enjoys competition and large classes!

I would big time have a look at Martin Lewis's advice on Moneysavingexpert before considering paying off Uni fees upfront.

@NeverHadHaveHas no. Not SE. SW.