Should we be worried about war

[Seasidesand76]

Seen a lot in the news about Ukraine using USA missiles against Russia. I've been thinking more along the lines that it won't start a WW3 and will resolve at some point without the UK getting directly involved in war. But there seems to be more and more tension and threats of an all out war recently.

Should we be worried about WW3? I haven't been prepping or anything but does make me wonder if I should start getting a few days worth of food in case. At the same time I don't want to go down the prepper hole and start getting over the top.

What is there to "sort out diplomatically" with Latvia etc? They have large minority populations of ethnic Russians but are part of NATO. What are you suggesting should change exactly?

Does being part of NATO mean incapable of diplomacy?

So, Latvia, questions to ask - does Latvia have domestic problems around any ethnic minorities? Are there issues around use of language etc? Are there breaches of international law?

If so can international pressure via NATO ensure that these problems are handled in accordance with international law?

I am sure the answer is yes?

I am not an expert in relation to Lativa's internal affairs and I haven't googled. You might be?

Just to follow on from that, a quick google tells me that there is a lot of discussion around whether or not there is discrimination in Latvia and other Baltics. There are probably geopolitical reasons behind it, if you dig deep enough. In the UK we are not saints, but we manage to rub along reasonably well with Wales and Scotland and the welsh and the scottish even though there are different official languages at play and/or legislation/administration. Such a notion, tolerance, has been around for decades. If diplomacy encouraging and managing tolerance isn't being employed now, there are probably reasons for it.

Yes.

On the other hand I don't want us to end up in the pre WW1 situation where everyone started arming themselves on the assumption that war was coming and it became a self fulfilling prophecy.

Not that a few cans of beans compares with munitions, but I don't like the mindset.

We aren't dealing with a normal partner in this though are we? something you seem to have completely ignored.

Putin is has been stirring up ethnic hatred and tensions, arming separatists, he really isn't anyone we can deal with, he sees "diplomacy" as weakness.

The only thing we can do is support these countries and i hope, with Ukraine, get them under the umbrella of NATO, though i do accept that Putin will keep Crimea and almost certainly large parts of the annexed area in Ukraine, though with Trump, maybe he will get it all.

I am not sure where you get your info from. Many people now think that Ukraine is being sold down the river.

The west negotiated an association agreement from 2007 to 2011 which was eventually signed in 2014 and the latest version is 2023, under which Ukraine is basically and fundamentally controlled by the "EU". What was happening with Russia, Crimea, east of Ukraine could have been handled differently by the west.

Peace terms should ensure that Ukraine gets the benefit of the natural resources on their land, do you not think? Some people think that the EU agreement is like some kind of heavy weight preventing peace and a healing of the hatred, do you think that is possible?

Before 2014 over 50 percent of Ukraine trade was with Russia. The EU agreement changed all that. There was no discussion. It was foreseeable that there would be problems do you not think?

Re separatists, what are the sources for what you say? I am not saying you are right or wrong as I don't know but according to VICE the weapons were handed over to eastern Ukraine by western Ukraine in 2014 going against government orders - there is footage of this happening shown, and interviews. Then things got more confrontational and military aid to Ukraine from outside increased, and the sources indicate that eastern Ukraine had weapons taken from battles which were won. According to OSCE, there wasn't much Russian presence in terms of equipment and no military people (other than attending meetings about Minsk etc). Russia was on the face of it pursuing diplomatic solutions until 2022, this seems to be corroborated by the other western leaders involved in the Minsk negotiations. Germany said they were only sitting at Minsk meetings to give them time to build an army (I can provide the source for this if you want - it was from an interview with Merkel). This was presumably about Crimea though this was not expressly stated. Crimea is of huge strategic value commercially and politically. I am not asserting all of this as fact as I don't know - if you have other bonafide sources, or you think I have missed something re OSCE, please do link.

By the way, financiers in the west were getting very excited about the prospect of a global economy up to 2007 - books were being written about it all all over the place - then some economies said that they thought that one economy might not be the best thing for their countries and a balance of power would be better. Quite a lot seems to have changed after this so this might also have been pivotal to decisions made. Again, I am not an expert here so if you have sources which say the opposite please do link.

Reading through the thread I noticed comments saying shelling didn't happen - sources re the shelling include the OSCE (going back many years, more than a decade) and the UN - both are required to be neutral so the information is factual about what shelling took place and when, and the UN highlighting human suffering but not attributing fault.

I also noticed posts about bio labs - a source for this is Christine Parthemore, CEO of the Council on Strategic Risks who confirmed that there were before 2014 "defence" labs in Ukr there doing biological weapons research, funded by the US for "public health" and for "defence" purposes. I can find the source if anyone needs it.

I am not sure what was being disputed here though.

Actually maybe slightly less than a decade.

That same Council on Strategic Risks stated in 2022 that it was all Russian disinformation.

https://councilonstrategicrisks.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/03/Fact-Sheet_Russian-Disinformation-on-U.S.-Supported-Labs-in-Ukraine_March-2022.pdf

@deeperdrivens yes there is discrimination against ethnic Russians in the Baltic states (and in Finland). But this is a matter for these sovereign states to deal with internally. As soon as you make it a matter of international relations you play directly into Putin’s narrative. He has invaded two countries under exactly this pretext.

But you know all this already as you’ve decided to drop your cover in your last couple of posts anyway.

You are so full of shit. This is bollocks, Russian disinformation/propogander. We see you.

It is not surprising that there is tension with ethnic Russians in the Baltics. They were the oppressors in an awful regime where there were terrible infringements of human rights, people spying and reporting on neighbours, people being disappeared etc.That was one generation ago.

It is this sort of thinking which lead to conflicts.

I recently read Prophet Song and now I can’t get it out of my head. The gradual slide into war the book portrayed was not only very believable but now, feeling ever more probable. It feels prescient somehow and it’s terrifying when you have a teenage son.

Every single thing I have said has come from western bonafide mainstream sources and therefore NOT Russian propaganda or misinformation. Check it yourself.

Source for the Russian disinformation claim that there were biological weapons labs in Ukraine at the time of the invasion?

And if you are correct, why did the Council on Strategic Risks, which you cited as a source, explicitly state that those claims were in fact Russian disinformation?

I don't agree that it is just a matter for these sovereign states to deal with. That is no longer how the world works. The power and influence of NATO and the EU under the respective agreements (and any other power behind them) means that if helping to deal with internal tensions will reduce the likelihood of armed conflict which would involve NATO, that is exactly what NATO and the collective EU should do.

I think NATO's role is to avoid conflict where diplomacy could do the job.

I am going to just ignore your second paragraph.

The note refers to [producing] chemical or biological weapons. My post referred to bio labs being there, funded by the US, for "health" and "defence"," research" on weapons for those purposes. Read the exact wording of my post. That is the exact wording used by the western source - ie the ceo.

Now some would say there is a fine line there, and a bit of goalpost moving, but that isn't what I said nor what I wanted to debate.

You will see the difference between what you linked and what I said. Stop accusing people of spreading disinformation, it is very rude.

Provide the source for the CEO's statement re the "bio labs".

There is nothing in Nato doctrine or treaties that allows direct action within a member country short of an armed attack triggering article 5.

https://www.nato.int/cps/is/natohq/topics_68144.htm

This is exactly what was said about ww1, that it seemed as though everyone was just drifting into war. Then Germany in 1917 asked for peace negotiations. But then they didn't happen and the worst and bloodiest part of the war took place. I am the same as you, I feel the same. But I don't believe we are drifting. I think it is a disgraceful crock. Trump has promised to end the conflicts, and I really hope he does it.

I will find the link and post it tomorrow. It was an interview.

Re the NATO link, you are saying that there is no influence whatsoever from any source on NATO countries? How ridiculous. Nuland said that she used her influence to stop Ukraine from agreeing to the peace deal in 2022 as it "wasn't a good deal for Ukraine" - what is that, if not bringing influence to bear?

Your posts are just utter nonsense.

Trump has promised to end the conflicts, and I really hope he does it.

Do you think he's a magician or something? Most of his promises are derived from magical thinking.