Should we be worried about war

[Seasidesand76]

Seen a lot in the news about Ukraine using USA missiles against Russia. I've been thinking more along the lines that it won't start a WW3 and will resolve at some point without the UK getting directly involved in war. But there seems to be more and more tension and threats of an all out war recently.

Should we be worried about WW3? I haven't been prepping or anything but does make me wonder if I should start getting a few days worth of food in case. At the same time I don't want to go down the prepper hole and start getting over the top.

No you should not be worried. Nuclear weapons mean mutually assured destruction hence why we’ve had the Cold War since the end of World War Two and not a “hot war” as a replacement we now get proxy wars- aka Ukraine. Yours sincerely a history and politics teacher!

But surely MAD only works if players on the world stage adhere to the principles behind it - which Putin clearly doesn’t. He invaded Ukraine and has openly escalated the threat of using nukes at every opportunity - even going as far as legally revising Russia’s parameters for doing so to suit the situation in Ukraine. Any action from conventional forces which Russia perceives as an existential threat can now be met with a first strike nuclear response. That’s a significant departure from the principle of MAD, which was designed to keep the peace.

Surely a history and politics teacher would be aware of the many hot wars currently ongoing? It was described as a Cold War because NATO and the Warsaw Pact weren't actively beating seven seven shades of shit out of each. The terms hot/cold war don't exclusively refer just to nuclear conflicts. There were plenty of hot wars and armed conflicts that occurred during the Cold War, and there are many ongoing hot wars taking place currently.

There was for a while a policy sometimes called “tripwire” which combined with MAD was meant to strongly dissuade the nuclear powers (specifically the Soviets) from engaging in conventional war. That was really scary and thankfully went out of fashion (I think) in the late sixties.

MAD on it’s own has never really been a protection against someone prepared to “go” conventional and really push it to the limits.

The frequency with which senior Russian regime figures have family members living in the West is, luckily, another disincentive towards any nuclear shenanigans.

What I mean is, world war is not going to happen, aka NATO versus Russia and China. Some wars not all are now used by these sides as a proxy war. Yes I know what a hot and Cold War means- that’s what I mean - as in the UK specifically won’t have anyone invading us, we won’t directly send troops to Russia, China etc and vice versa, therefore no hot war where we are specifically defending our land. Hot wars happening now are either proxy wars or hot wars not involving the big powers. There would be no world war as far as I am concerned without these big powers physically fighting each other.

But he is adhering to it, he can threaten all he wants he’s going to nuke us all. But he hasn’t. He’s made threat after threat everytime support for Ukraine is ratcheted up ,eg when tanks were first sent. It’s his tactic to try to stop us but it doesn’t work as we can look through this. Ukraine is not a nuclear power or part of NATO so Cold War status still stands. The big powers are not directly fighting each other

He is abiding by the principles of MAD - he’s not invading any nuclear-armed countries or any countries in a mutual defence pact with nuclear-armed countries (ie NATO members).

The biggest concern is if NATO falls (eg the US pulls out) and he thinks it a paper tiger then he will start eyeing up the most exposed NATO members: the three Baltic states.

23% of Latvia’s population identify as Russian so he may decide to ‘liberate’ them if he believes NATO would not respond. Lithuania would be up for
grabs next so he could reunite Kaliningrad with the mother country. Then Estonia to stop NATO blockading St Petersburg.

He’s not going to start a conventional war with Poland or Finland as Russian forces would be absolutely annihilated, but I wouldn’t want to be in the Baltics if Trump pulls the US out of NATO.

If only Putin had started an 'AIBU to Invade the Ukraine?' thread........

Finally someone that understands geopolitics! Thank you for the brilliant explanation

Surely dropping even a tactical nuclear missile on Ukraine would be like Putin peeing on his own doorstep, if he's serious about grabbing that land? I mean, what an expensive humanitarian, environmental, economic, geopolitical car crash, as if it isn't enough of a nightmare already.

And the russian people are only there as russia went in and killed or imprisoned people and put its own people in - as in Ukraine - russia starved 10 million Ukrainians and moved their russian people in - russians are total bastards imo (and my family's experience)

A bit harsh. But yes, the Russian populations in the Baltics and in Ukraine are a legacy of soviet-era Russification, much the same way as China continues to do so with Tibet.

Apparently S Korea have just declared emergency martial law.

I'm getting neck ache from trying to swivel my attention to all the places around the globe and keep half an eye on current affairs.

Any thoughts on this little hot spot?

Internal South Korean politics.
www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cn38321180et

Yeah, deflecting from the fact that him and his wife are on the take.

When the Soviet Union broke up in 1991 and various parts became independent countries (or semi independent), the ethnic Russians who were living on the land and who had done since the 1920s overnight became ethnic minorities and in some countries this caused huge problems. This is something which the west could have handled differently, tbh. Ethnic hatred has got worse over time, not better, and that is the fault of the leadership.

Some say that this has been done on purpose to cause trouble, to increase unrest, to make war easier to justify though I couldn't comment on that, personally.

Look back at S Ossetia - Russia didn't invade Georgia, but annexed S Ossetia, because like N Ossetia the majority of the population were ethnic Russians and they were being attacked. S Ossetia was annexed, on its own, but it wasn't the start of empire building by Russia. So perhaps that is an indication that if we can sort things out diplomatically now with the countries who have large percentages of ethnic Russians, the conflict would stop.

No, it was because the east of Ukraine (now annexed by Russia) was gifted to Lenin to Russia in 1922 ie before that it was Russia. So at that time is was predominantly populated by Russians. Even by 2014 most of the people in that part of Ukraine had Russian as their first language etc. This was a part of the unrest in 2014 as Nationalists said it was unfair that all the best jobs went to people who spoke Russian in that area. The years since 1922 obvously there have been marriages and movement around Ukraine though. But apparently for decades this area and Crimea have tradionally voted for pro Russian presidents and the area in the west for pro Europe presidents. About starving, do you mean Holodomor?

Not so, historically. Before ww1 most of the lands which became soviet lands were Russian. Russia lost some lands in ww1. Soviets won them back in ww2.

Not exactly as simple as that, but broadly. Have a look at some history books which show before and after maps re the wws with shading to indicate what happened when.

Kind of irrelevant what was what by whom pre WW1.

Ukraine is a sovereign state & the nationalists in eastern Ukraine were armed and supported by Russia.... leading to the shooting down of a civilian airliner.... a precursor to taking Crimea and then invading Ukraine, see what we can get away with.. a great deal.

This is bollocks. Even if historically thie above is true (sounds more like Putin apologist guff), you do not annex parts of other countries agreed borders. You have diplomacy and citizens agreement before any action is taken. To do anything else is aggressive and a hostile act.

My ex husband told me that there has been an increase in cyber attacks aimed at hospitals. Which may be from Russia.

The annexing is a completely different point. It is you making the link not me.

Though in actual fact what is happening now in terms of cold war is in fact linked back to relations between ww1 and ww2. Have a read for yourself.

Actually I might have misunderstood what post you were referring to. What post were you referring to?