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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think Kemi and Nigel will likely win the next UK election after making a pact of some kind and fighting on an immigration / identity politics platform?

446 replies

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 14:54

Especially after Trump’s win today.

labour has a tiny lead at 27% today (6th nov, politico.eu polling )

tories have 27. Reform has 19.

so that’s a possible 46/27 which gives a right wing team up more MPs than Labour has now. (OFC in any pact they won’t get all those votes)

this Labour majority is paper thin. Everyone hates Keir.

OP posts:
Thread gallery
7
PandoraSox · 06/11/2024 16:52

amigafan2003 · 06/11/2024 16:50

Considering that we adopted a fixed term parliament in 2011, what scenarios do you think might cause an early election?

That has been abolished.

Tiredalwaystired · 06/11/2024 16:53

The Tory party get through leaders like toilet paper.

Let’s wait a few years before we see if this is even an issue.

I can easily see Farage stepping down (from the non job he’s doing) as he’s achieved his goal and “won” but like Boris has no intention of doing the job once he’s got there. Trump will offer him a juicy carrot and he will sail into the sunset without likely to have even spoken to a Clacton resident before he goes.

Petrine · 06/11/2024 16:57

In answer to the question posed by the OP… I hope so.

amigafan2003 · 06/11/2024 16:57

beguilingeyes · 06/11/2024 15:29

We've already had a non-white PM.

An unelected non-white PM*

I know we don't elect our PMs but you know what I mean.

Alphaalga · 06/11/2024 16:58

bombastix · 06/11/2024 15:39

Yes that’s correct - don’t know where this historic illiteracy comes from

Headline/slogan-sized attention span is my guess.

Gummybear23 · 06/11/2024 17:00

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 14:54

Especially after Trump’s win today.

labour has a tiny lead at 27% today (6th nov, politico.eu polling )

tories have 27. Reform has 19.

so that’s a possible 46/27 which gives a right wing team up more MPs than Labour has now. (OFC in any pact they won’t get all those votes)

this Labour majority is paper thin. Everyone hates Keir.

Mmmmm

Kemi won't get voted in.
Nigel's party will neber get the numbers

Labour have only been in 5 mins.
Time will tell.

PrincessW11 · 06/11/2024 17:01

nightmarepickle2025 · 06/11/2024 15:03

I’m willing to bet Boris will be our next prime minister

Actually I wondered today if he'll make a comeback to frontline politics

MyEarringsAreGreen · 06/11/2024 17:02

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:06

@doodleygirl "Who is the ‘everybody’” who hates Keir?"

The electorate:

www.politico.eu/article/uk-keir-starmer-labour-suffers-historic-drop-in-approval-ratings/

What is right is not always popular and what is popular is not always right. Labour will not undo 14 years of Tory neglect and waste in a few months. Give him time.

Kemi Badenoch is unlikely, in my opinion, to be the leader by next election. Time will tell.

Perhaps someone should remind Mr Farage his job is as an MP, a job he apparently desperately wanted, and while parliament is sitting he should be in UK serving his constituency, not being Donald Trump's cheerleader in the USA.

Gummybear23 · 06/11/2024 17:03

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:00

Not quite true - more that the right tends to act like a pack, if the leader is strong and successful they rally round, if they show weakness they get eaten.
So far, Kemi has been pretty damned strong.

Kemi won't be leader for long.

Bojo boris will be back..

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 17:04

Gummybear23 · 06/11/2024 17:03

Kemi won't be leader for long.

Bojo boris will be back..

ok sure, why and how?

OP posts:
wonkylegs · 06/11/2024 17:04

It's too close to our previous election to even contemplate this.
Popularity when fixing an unholy mess is going to struggle especially initially
The current governments long term success depends on how they move forward but to expect them to have fixed everything that was trashed and move on to the bit where people can see some positive outcomes & think they are " wonderful" or even doing the "right thing" in such a short period of time is ridiculous.
The rise of populism over progressive societal policies in world politics is a little concerning but to jump to the suggested outcome is a bit of a leap.
Let's see how long the tories manage to keep this leader first - they currently have a bit of a short termism problem themselves.

Gummybear23 · 06/11/2024 17:05

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 15:31

The alternative is that Reform eats the Tories. Could happen....

Won't happen.

Reform won't ever get the power they wish for.

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 17:05

Gummybear23 · 06/11/2024 17:05

Won't happen.

Reform won't ever get the power they wish for.

ok - why not? They seem to have 20-25% of the vote right now, and climbing?

OP posts:
12plusexam · 06/11/2024 17:06

If Trump can come back I'm sure Boris will be thinking about it.

Gummybear23 · 06/11/2024 17:10

12plusexam · 06/11/2024 17:06

If Trump can come back I'm sure Boris will be thinking about it.

Ain't got nothing else to do.
The country did well with brexit 🙄.
Sure he can add more mayhem.

Kemi, won't last.
Lots are anti immigration but a black woman delivering the message won't wash.
A white male like boris is what will get those votes.

Beekeepingmum · 06/11/2024 17:11

The polls really don't matter at the moment. People want public services to work well, people don't want to pay for them, those things are not compatible. It takes time to turn about the oil tanker so to speak. If services are improving and people feel better about life in 4 years they could well win.

12plusexam · 06/11/2024 17:16

Well we will see.
If kemi is rude about farage and reform... She's a gonna.

Summernightsinthe21stcentury · 06/11/2024 17:18

I thought Badenoch was very poor at PMQs today so she's not giving any vibes of being strong.
There is no way she will be PM after the next election.
Can I ask OP why you keep posting the same link time and again? It's very dull.
And you are wrong - the far right might end with gas chambers but that's not where it starts.

Shakeoffyourchains · 06/11/2024 17:22

The next election is almost 5 years away and the problems we'll be facing by then (domestically and globally) will make the last few years seem like a luxury Carribbean cruise, so I'd be surprised if any of them are still around by then.

GCAcademic · 06/11/2024 17:22

MereDintofPandiculation · 06/11/2024 15:00

YABU to say “everyone hates Keir” based on yourself and your friends. A Tory/Reform pact would have to have an agreement as to whether Kemi or Nigel would be PM. That would be an interesting discussion

There's no way Farage would want to be PM. He's far too lazy and there's no avoiding responsibility in that job. His skill is in exploiting discontent and cultivating division and disruption. He operates from the sidelines, not where the actual work needs to be done.

EasternStandard · 06/11/2024 17:25

Summernightsinthe21stcentury · 06/11/2024 17:18

I thought Badenoch was very poor at PMQs today so she's not giving any vibes of being strong.
There is no way she will be PM after the next election.
Can I ask OP why you keep posting the same link time and again? It's very dull.
And you are wrong - the far right might end with gas chambers but that's not where it starts.

She did well. Especially for a first

Politico gave her the higher marks

PMQs: Kemi Badenoch wins by using her Trump card
New Tory leader had Keir Starmer on the ropes about the incoming US president.

MumtananoBay · 06/11/2024 17:25

Summernightsinthe21stcentury · 06/11/2024 17:18

I thought Badenoch was very poor at PMQs today so she's not giving any vibes of being strong.
There is no way she will be PM after the next election.
Can I ask OP why you keep posting the same link time and again? It's very dull.
And you are wrong - the far right might end with gas chambers but that's not where it starts.

I keep posting it because people keep saying nobody hates keir so I quote them and link to the article.

please tell me what “far right” things you have seen in western politics in the last 12 months

OP posts:
Gummybear23 · 06/11/2024 17:28

Labour will get a second term.
Not everyone hates starmer.
Even those who were not sure have since voiced that compared to Kemi he is much preferred.

Scammersarescum · 06/11/2024 17:28

GCAcademic · 06/11/2024 17:22

There's no way Farage would want to be PM. He's far too lazy and there's no avoiding responsibility in that job. His skill is in exploiting discontent and cultivating division and disruption. He operates from the sidelines, not where the actual work needs to be done.

Hmmmm I really hope you're right. But Trump is lazy and he's back.

I think what the OP is forgetting is nuance. There are plenty of small c Conservatives who find Farage abominable. Just because you may have views to the right of centre, it doesn't mean you are far to the right. A tory reform potential coalition may be enough to make you abstain or vote elsewhere.

Gummybear23 · 06/11/2024 17:29

Scammersarescum · 06/11/2024 17:28

Hmmmm I really hope you're right. But Trump is lazy and he's back.

I think what the OP is forgetting is nuance. There are plenty of small c Conservatives who find Farage abominable. Just because you may have views to the right of centre, it doesn't mean you are far to the right. A tory reform potential coalition may be enough to make you abstain or vote elsewhere.

💯 this