To think Kemi and Nigel will likely win the next UK election after making a pact of some kind and fighting on an immigration / identity politics platform?

[MumtananoBay]

Especially after Trump’s win today.

labour has a tiny lead at 27% today (6th nov, politico.eu polling )

tories have 27. Reform has 19.

so that’s a possible 46/27 which gives a right wing team up more MPs than Labour has now. (OFC in any pact they won’t get all those votes)

this Labour majority is paper thin. Everyone hates Keir.

I suspect it's what you want to happen. You seem strangely gleeful at the prospect. However, the UK has never stood for fascism and I don't think it's about to start. The election of a centre-left government completely bucked the trend in the rest of Europe. In case you're labouring under the apprehension that fascism is fun, it isn't.

We had most of those between 2019 and 2024. Sadly, none of it forced the then government to the ballot boxes.

So what? Starmer congratulated him also, out of basic good manners. It's generally agreed her performance at PMQ was pretty dire.

Good lord. That would exclude Rishi Sunak for one! For that matter, Kemi Badenoch is not of Northern Europaean origin. Even Boris Johnson has some Muslim and some Jewish ancestors.

Oh I completely agree, they are excellent at whipping dissatisfied voters up.

There are people out there feeling ignored though, so the whipping up is highly effective.

If we think about immigration in this country, I believe that we’re all humans and everyone deserves a chance at a decent life, there are others who are living in areas where they are affected by high levels of illegal immigration but saying anything is twisted into them being racist, which sends them straight to Farage’s arms.

There have to be these discussions in an open and accessible way, or opportunists like Farage and Trump say the stuff and come out on top. Unless the way politics is going is changed/adapted to meet this in a way that can capture these people who don’t feel represented by current governing, then the future is looking far more right wing than it currently is.

I mostly think that things are shit and polarised right now, and the move to right wing is sadly inevitable but will eventually lead to more balance. The perceived moral high ground of the left is part of this push, and I feel they as a group are more able to adapt than those already snuggled up to Farage and Trump types.

I feel they as a group are more able to adapt than those already snuggled up to Farage and Trump types.

Actually maybe humans are all fairly tribal and lass able to adapt, compromise and live with other opinions, hence why we are living in such divisive times.

I still think this is all part of a cycle though, things will get worse before they get better. Things will be better though one day 🤞

I feel they as a group are more able to adapt than those already snuggled up to Farage and Trump types.

Actually maybe humans are all fairly tribal and lass able to adapt, compromise and live with other opinions, hence why we are living in such divisive times.

I still think this is all part of a cycle though, things will get worse before they get better. Things will be better though one day 🤞

I think there would be a chance of a coalition government if the opportunity was there for the conservatives and reform. I doubt they would turn it down. It would be impossible for a minority government to do anything much at all and eventually the electorate would get pissed off.

I think it’s because the majority of terrorist attacks have been Islamically inspired, grooming gangs still pop up in the newspapers often primarily muslim still (obviously majority of offences against children will be white but people are just not surprised anymore if they are asian), obsession with Gaza.

I do think there’s something in that mainly people are concerned with Muslim migrants. Peoples perceptions will be skewed if they don’t have high quality interactions with other groups. If you know a lovely mum on the school run who’s muslim that you have playdates with, or your nextdoor neighbour is muslim and you get on really well with them your perception is different.

It’s more than that though. If it was just about terrorism the English would be equally mistrustful of the Irish given the IRAs spate of attacks in the 80s.

People are scared of “other”, especially if they dont have day to day dealings. I’m chuckling at anyone trying to force my feisty outspoken Muslim friend to wear her hijab. Totally a choice she makes!

Nope not easy... all of those scenarios tend to cement in the incumbent Govt.

China's economy is stalling, attacking Taiwan is going to make that a lot worse and isn't a war we would be involved in, too far away.

Pandemic? you think China will allow another virus to escape?

A wider war in Ukraine is probably the more likely of your doomsday thoughts.... but that would be a NATO led operation & Europe as a whole, still has an awful amount of fire power and air superiority.

Starmers ratings went UP during the riots, it fell due to hypocrisy.

Equally, the world economy could bounce back, Russia withdraws from Ukraine, NHS improves, inflation stays low and Lab win another term?

I think you are still very bitter at having lost so heavily in July.

Starmer is as about as popular as Sunak/Badenoch & way higher than Farage...

Blimey. Maybe I should hold a mirror up to you. You are being deeply unpleasant: “immature”, “unnecessary”, “poorly”. Did I touch a nerve?

Well, I don’t agree with your analysis. Cameron and Blair in my opinion didn’t struggle with a “conflating of international and domestic crises”. Both were highly able politicians. Cameron was, to a large extent, the creator is his own downfall through arrogance or complacency by calling a referendum. Whilst Blair’s WMD/ dodgy dossier/ illegal war destroyed his standing.

I also don’t agree that now is any more difficult or challenging to be PM. What a wonderful excuse though. Modern history is littered with highly complex, fraught, terrifying moments.

Rather than attempting to dismiss the meaning of Starmer’s current approval ratings with airy refutations of seasonality or pre-budget nerves, why don’t you think about the specifics of the last few months. The realisation that Starmer plus his cabinet and wife have had their noses stuck in Lord Ali’s trough has been deeply damaging. The removal of the WFA appears callous and tribal. The fictitious “black hole” designed to cover up huge pay rises to public sector workers hasn’t worked. Voters remember such things when elections come around. Keir’s honeymoon period as PM was incredibly short and the approval rating should tell him and his team something worrying.

By the way, even a primary school aged child can determine the tone of a piece of text. Whether or not it is on a screen, writing conveys tone. I can tell you how, but then you might accuse me of being patronising.

I think people are missing why some politicians win and others not. Ignore the ideology they are said to have. Why has Trump won? I believe it’s because people in the US believe he will do a better job with the economy. And he did do a better job than Biden.

Why did Starmer win? Again, this is to do with the incompetence of the Conservatives in managing the economy.

If both these men, who are ideologically very different deliver more money in the pockets of their citizens then the chatter about migrants and culture will fall away. Trump says he will deport millions. I doubt he will. But it secured him the voters he needed as well as an economic vote.

There is always a minority that is hard right with a racialised agenda. History tells us they only get traction when people feel hopeless and impoverished. The UK is not hopeless.

Actually the previous poster is correct. Tone in writing is completely at the mercy of the reader. You may write it with one tone but it can be interpreted with a very different voice quite easily.

To pro Labour mners. I quoted politico below and I’m sure other media said likewise

"I do t consider that far right at all. Quite sensible frankly. "

Wow!

Tbf the former chief of immigration said the same and that the current approach from Starmer was not feasible

Why the BBC only managed to interview him after the GE with that information I guess is a mystery

But he was pretty blunt. The only thing that will work is a deterrent and that we should have kept Rwanda in place, it also moved a large amount of people to the ROI

I think it’s because the majority of terrorist attacks have been Islamically inspired

That's just because of how terrorism is defined, by the motive, not the act.

Derek Bird killed 12 people in a gun attack, but wasn't classed as a terrorist.

Thomas Mair killed one person in a knife attack and was classed as a terrorist.

Ryan McGee killed no one but was involved with the British far right, had the anarchists cookbook and had made a viable IED at home wasn't classed as a terrorist.

Abu Izzadeen killed no one but was involved with the islamic far right including in fundraising, was classed as a terrorist.

CREST carried out a study on this and found that, of the 809 people convicted of terror related offences between 2001 and 2022, 61.7% were Islamists, but also found that non-muslims were significantly less likely to be charged with terror related offences than Muslims, even for the same crimes. The majority of grooming gangs are also white btw.

But as I said, it's clear the debate is racialised, regardless of how much the right claim it is not. More often than not, it comes back to this and I don't know why people like the OP spend so much time and effort denying it.

It's funny how the right really object to being tarred with the racist or biggoted brush due to the actions of a minority, but will do just that when it comes to Middle Eastern, South Asian and African Muslims (oddly Southeast Asian Muslims escape this).

Removing individuals to a country that wasn't deemed safe (they had to pass a law to pretend it was), that in recent history had one of the bloodiest civil wars in the world, is lower than the average HDI for sub-saharan countries, and doesn't recognise LGBTQ (with abuse of that group evident), isn't considered far right wing?

I bet you think Hitler was a socialist, you know, because that's what they called the party............

Getting into any ‘debate’ on a thread like this is as pointless in trying to engage with the ‘Trump is a rapist and voting for him is a vote to murder babies’ brigade.

Your last line is ludicrous but that's where we are now with discussion around this.

If a former chief of immigration can talk about it in an informed way then maybe people should think about what he's talking about. He clearly has insight and understands more than some on mn.

When I say burying heads in the sand this is what I mean. You can try all this snark and ridiculous lines but it won't solve the increasing problem for you, you'll just get election results such as the US and various EU countries.

The Conservatives were always going to lose the last election - and were probably happy to do so. Having left the country in a total mess after 14 years of mis-management and underinvestment (or rather - having robbed every last penny from the public and handed it to their chums) they were happy to dump the whole shit-show into Labour's lap.

"Everyone hates Keir" - From Day One, there has been a concerted effort on the part of the Conservatives to conduct an ad hom attack on Starmer. Every day, for the next 4 years, you'll be reading headlines in the Express, Mail and Telegraph, seeing posts on "X", and getting Tory trolls posting threads on MN and elsewhere attacking Starmer.

"Reeves will destroy the economy" is the second prong of attack. GBNews proclaims that families will be robbed of 91% of their inheritance. The Mail ran a story about one family (theoretically) paying over 90% in IHT, only to reveal that the estate was worth over £4million - i.e one of only 100 estates of that size in the UK. For 96% of the population, IHT will have no impact whatsoever - and the other 4% can use various schemes to mitigate IHT, which the right-wing press have also been keen to promote as ways to avoid paying tax.

As for other taxes and financial measures - the Conservatives seem to have already convinced a large section of the population that it must have been "someone else" who was in charge for the last 14 years - something that they tried every time they changed leaders from Cameron onwards. It was always "the other lot" wot done it - never them. They still believe the twin lies that it is possible to have good public services without anyone being asked to pay for them, and that the Free Market will solve any and every economic problem.

As we've seen with Brexit in the UK, and Trump in the US, a well-organised and well-funded campaign can persuade people to vote against their own interests. Convince people that there is an "enemy" - the EU, "Immigrants", "Lefties" or whoever - and then use lies, slogans, stunts and foghorns like Trump, Boris and Farage (with a supporting cast of nasties like Tommy Robinson and Lee Anderson to say the worst things) to hammer the message home. "Repeat a lie often enough and it becomes the truth." If any opponents can be silenced, then all the better. The Conservatives and Republicans do this by controlling the print and broadcast media. Musk goes one step further, amplifying the right wing and banning any dissenters or opposing views on "X".

Will Farage and Kemi form the next government? It's perfectly plausible, although neither of these two chancers will actually be PM - Boris dreams of a Trumpian come-back, Mel Stride (Public School educated, Oxford PPE, typical Tory grey male stuffed-shirt) is already in place to keep an eye on Kemi, and Honest Bob Jenrick has morphed into a piss-poor Farage tribute act but clearly has the right connections and donors so can't be rule out.

I think Kemi is mistaken if she thinks that Trump's victory had anything to do with wokism and culture wars. People voted for Trump because they felt better off during his previous term. Normal people are concerned with normal things. All the exit polls showed that people's main concern was the economy.

Wow yes maybe would be great think
And maybe keep
Social housing. Affordable

Gosh it is ages for the elections. You would be insane by the time the elections come of a thing you can’t control. A week in politics is long let alone years.