Nervous/anxious/scared about the Autumn budget 2024

[Cartwrightandson]

I know that we don't know any details. We have read or heard bits that might be incorrect or just plain wrong. I also know we won't know anything until Wednesday when Rachel Reeves publishes/announces the contents of the budget...

But what we do know...it's the first labour budget for over 14 years, we've had a conservative government, austerity, brexit, covid and cost of living/interest rate increase meaning our economy is not in a good place.

Our services/infrastructure haven't had much needed investment for a long time.
Councils are practically bankrupt, some already are. Schools, housing, NHS, social care and economy are all struggling..to remedy this requires money and this will need to come from higher taxes.

There's a 19 billion pound black hole and Labour have already removed the winter fuel allowance, showing they are willing do things that are unpopular or possibly controversial..the Labour manifesto said it wouldn't increase taxes, but now they are saying they have to.

They've already allocated money for Ukraine, teachers, train drivers, junior doctors, NHS staff ect

Keir said people who don't 'work' for their income (shares/savings/landlord income) aren't classed as working people and will be taxed..

Basically this budget is going to need to raise taxes to pay for investment in services. That much we do know. But where the cuts and the tax increase will be is unknown. I don't think anyone will be 'better off'...

Possibilities.. (note these are not absolute, I could be very wrong)

Inheritance tax changes
Fuel duty increase
Income tax increase
Social housing rent increase
Benefit cuts
No free universal prescription for over 60s
Change to tax free allowance
Removal of help to buy, right to buy and alterations to stamp duty
Pension age to increase
State pension to decrease?
Tuition fees to increase
Tax free pension allowance to be reduced
Isa/bond/shares/investments taxed

Who really knows...but I think the labour comms are possibly leaking information so that we are being drip fed so when the budget does happen we already know and are braced/prepared for it.

Or what is being leaked about the budget is really bad but when the budget happens we are relieved it wasn't as bad the leaks hinted at. But it is still painful but we are more accepting because it's not as bad as it could have been...if that makes sense.

It’s much higher for first time buyers.

That’s not the threshold for first time buyers.

It looks like farmers are going to protest so obviously it's not just here on mn, they are actually concerned

VAT is obviously a bigger hit in one year, surely you can see that if someone increases your mortgage or rent over time it's different to 20% in one go.

But really I think it's madness to go for small businesses, they are a major part of the economy and what Labour need is growth.

Farms have 10 years to pay IHT. And 85% won’t be affected anyway.

I'm sure the unaffected on here will say I'm fine, it's someone else impacted but there will be a rally. Maybe they'll stick up for each other regardless.

The National Farmers Union is to hold a major Westminster rally next month after Rachel Reeves revoked farmland's exemption from inheritance tax (IHT).

And the Country Land and Business Association said the move, from April 2026, would hit 70,000 farms – calling it 'nothing short of a betrayal' which would 'jeopardise the future of rural businesses'.

I don't think that's right, the Gov believe it will affect 25% of Farms but the NFU think the figure is closer to 50%.

I can't think of a single group, when asked to pay more tax, that wouldn't rally or protest.

As night follows day, the week after any budget is full of the people being asked to pay more bitching about being asked to pay more, explaining why they shouldn't have to and why it's unfair, and the opposition seizing their moment of course. This time business is being hit so there'll be big money thrown at fighting it I suppose.

The NFU represent the massive conglomerates disproportionately. I’ll take the official figures myself.

'Bitching' yes I'm sure plenty are happy others are hit, as you may be.

Very shortsighted though given the need for food security and growth. I presume you need food and whatever growth can deliver including public sector pay.

That's fine. But I'll take theirs over yours.

Just a couple of points, which I think have been lost along the way.

Education, as far as I know, is not taxed in any other (civilised) country because education is seen as positive, not a luxury. It's about choice just like there is a choice to go on expensive, foreign holidays, or take your kids to football/ballet/music lessons.

Perhaps if people want a true communist lifestyle, we should consider taxing foreign holidays as they are a 'luxury'. Many socialist countries always had private school as an option long before they went for the 'voucher' system where the state basically pays towards where you want to go.

On the "private schools have increased fees above inflation" point: Actually, if you were to look at any state school cost that has increased by above inflation too (I will dig out the stats on this, can't find it right now). Costs have increased massively above inflation across the board!!

Two things that should happen but the Brits are reluctant to do:

• increase general income tax for all - as a country we are taxed far less than any European countries. We are slightly above the US but then they are not afforded the public services we are (e.g. the NHS, free healthcare over 65 etc etc)
• Stop the holy cow treatment of the NHS. It's just not viable for an organisation which is one of the largest employers in the world not to charge something. We should charge per visit to discourage the misuse of the services, with a cap for those with chronic diseases.

lol we ARE taxes on foreign holidays! It’s called Air passenger duty.

Be prepared for an increase in food prices, a freeze on wage rises, redundancies and doctors practices closing. Well done Rachel Thieves. What a good job you've done. Don't think she'll have a job for very long.

Because none of that was happening before at all?
Making up stupid names for politicians just reveals that you are not able t9 make serious points. It’s a good budget. There’ll be some growth. Most people are unaffected by the changes.

I can see why the public sector would feel ‘most are unaffected’ but it’s ignoring a significant chunk who are

James Smith, research director at the Resolution Foundation think tank which aims to improve living standards for low-to-middle income families, agreed.

"Even if it doesn't show up in pay packets from day one, it will eventually feed through to lower wages," he said.

"This is definitely a tax on working people, let's be very clear about that."

And the IFS

The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the rise in employer NICs will affect larger firms hiring people on low wages the most, and could lead to fewer minimum wage jobs being available in future.

It also warned that lower pay rises could mean the measure raises significantly less than a forecast £25bn.

It highlighted a forecast by the OBR that it could end up raising "just" £16bn if, for example, businesses award smaller wage rises.

Paul Johnson, head of the IFS, also warned of likely further spending and tax increases part way through the parliament.

Mr Johnson described the forecasts as "pretty awful".

Lib Dems and others are raising issues for GPs and pharmacies

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c79z87wzv2no.amp

Not much has been said about social care, how will that impact councils?

Pretty juvenile comment about the chancellor. OTOH I guess that's what needs to be resorted to when there's nothing else of consequence to say.

Personally I'm happy with it. Despite being one of those comfortable middle class baby boomers with kids just finishing private school (one with 2 years and 1 with 7 months. So it will have a financial impact... BUT that is how it should be.

Why can't people understand basic economics. ? If we want decent public services, a good health service and a high standard of state education then it needs taxes to fund these - and the fairest way to do that is to tax hardest those most able to pay.

This budget definitely skews a bit more 'burden' on the boomer generation which hold the vast majority of the wealth and have had the highest level of benefits in the shape of free university education, gold plated pensions and relatively cheap cost of housing.

I think it's time to give something back in the shape of minimum wage rises especially the inequitious business of paying adults at different rates just because they are younger.

I agree and I’d have liked to have seen greater taxation on those of us whose year of birth has resulted in our being significantly better off than younger generations. It’s not as if it would have lost a Labour government many voters and would redress some of the Tory bribes.

Before anyone points out that I could voluntarily pay more tax, I know I could but it would be a drop in the ocean, it’s better donated to charity.

I started thinking the budget wasn’t so bad, but now the more I hear about it, the more I realise how bad it actually is. It’s absolutely going to set everyone back.

I take it no one on here has their own business then. Friends of ours had just done their forecasting for the next financial year, planned the growth and number of staff they were planning to employ. That has now changed, they have just been shafted with an additiinal £100,000 bill on their salary bill. No one will get a pay rise next year and they won't be able to employ the number of people they require because they now can't afford it. Yes I do understand how finance works, and yes the working person will feel the effect of the budget. We managed to get our business sale across the line just before the budget, a huge relief.

I read an article locally where the doctor was discussing closing the surgery as it makes no financial sense any more, her and her partners can't afford the increase and I don't see anyone running a business at a loss. People are already struggling to get appointments, the situation looks set to get worse.

Before anyone makes the typical 'it's alright for you ' comment, yes it is. You start your own business, don't take a salary for a couple of years and live off savings, you have the sleepless nights, you have the worry and stress of getting business through the door, you worry about employing the right people that can do the job. Once you've done that, and start making some good profit, after 30 years you can sell up too and put your feet up and be proud on the little empire you set up to pass on. People struggle to see how success works, they just see the end result of it and are bitter about it. Life is about choice, you need to make sure you are making the correct ones, don't be disappointed when you've made the wrong one. You just need to make another to put it right, a bit like running a business.

EverythingAllatOnceAllTheTime · 31/10/2024 07:37

A significant number of SMEs will go to the wall - no doubt

Exactly what was said when minimum wage was introduced. Didn’t happen.

As someone who works at a senior level within finance in the public sector, I’m horrified by this budget. It demonstrates a real incompetence from the Government, and will be completely counterproductive to its stated aims of no return to austerity if steps aren’t taken to adjustments.

Take social care… At the local authority I work for, the estimated cost of the NLW and NI on the adult social care sector will be 4 TIMES the additional funding we estimate we will receive. And that doesn’t take into account the ongoing increasing demand from an aging population (which actually would soak up the extra funding all on its own).

Unless this is sorted, the social care sector will be decimated, and hospitals will be stuffed full of elderly patients who could be discharged, but will have nowhere to go. This will unnecessarily waste billions of the extra money provided to the NHS.

I was cautiously optimistic about Labour’s budget, but this is worse than anything that the Tories did… This budget opens the doors to austerity, not by design, but by utter incompetence and stupidity…

I was glad to see the Tories go but, and I can’t believe I’m saying this, I want them back. At this point, they seem the lesser of two evils.

But this is an unprecedented triple whammy… A massive hike in NLW, a rise in employer’s NI, and a reduction in the threshold NI has to be paid. And this doesn’t even take into account the greater burden from changes to employee conditions.

Modelling I have done indicates that a company in the service sector with significant numbers of part-time staff (often mothers with young families) will have an increase in pay costs of 12-14%. It’s genuinely crippling!

@Santina

Completely agree with your analysis. It’s the politics of envy and it will be our ruin.

I read an article locally where the doctor was discussing closing the surgery as it makes no financial sense any more, her and her partners can't afford the increase and I don't see anyone running a business at a loss. People are already struggling to get appointments, the situation looks set to get worse.

And this from the party of the NHS. What the hell are they thinking decimating the provision that underpins effective healthcare, whether that’s GPs or social care, just because those people aren’t “employed by the state”. It doesn’t make sense on any level unless you are ideologically driven to destroy this provision.

Me too, it’s every bit as bad and ill-conceived as the Truss mini-budget in its own way.

Yes, Kemi!

Now I feel newly optimistic that this shower of a Labour Govt will prove a one-term affair.

Rejoice!