Nervous/anxious/scared about the Autumn budget 2024

[Cartwrightandson]

I know that we don't know any details. We have read or heard bits that might be incorrect or just plain wrong. I also know we won't know anything until Wednesday when Rachel Reeves publishes/announces the contents of the budget...

But what we do know...it's the first labour budget for over 14 years, we've had a conservative government, austerity, brexit, covid and cost of living/interest rate increase meaning our economy is not in a good place.

Our services/infrastructure haven't had much needed investment for a long time.
Councils are practically bankrupt, some already are. Schools, housing, NHS, social care and economy are all struggling..to remedy this requires money and this will need to come from higher taxes.

There's a 19 billion pound black hole and Labour have already removed the winter fuel allowance, showing they are willing do things that are unpopular or possibly controversial..the Labour manifesto said it wouldn't increase taxes, but now they are saying they have to.

They've already allocated money for Ukraine, teachers, train drivers, junior doctors, NHS staff ect

Keir said people who don't 'work' for their income (shares/savings/landlord income) aren't classed as working people and will be taxed..

Basically this budget is going to need to raise taxes to pay for investment in services. That much we do know. But where the cuts and the tax increase will be is unknown. I don't think anyone will be 'better off'...

Possibilities.. (note these are not absolute, I could be very wrong)

Inheritance tax changes
Fuel duty increase
Income tax increase
Social housing rent increase
Benefit cuts
No free universal prescription for over 60s
Change to tax free allowance
Removal of help to buy, right to buy and alterations to stamp duty
Pension age to increase
State pension to decrease?
Tuition fees to increase
Tax free pension allowance to be reduced
Isa/bond/shares/investments taxed

Who really knows...but I think the labour comms are possibly leaking information so that we are being drip fed so when the budget does happen we already know and are braced/prepared for it.

Or what is being leaked about the budget is really bad but when the budget happens we are relieved it wasn't as bad the leaks hinted at. But it is still painful but we are more accepting because it's not as bad as it could have been...if that makes sense.

So much this! It’s a budget to make everyone breathe a sigh of relief and to think “well, Labour aren’t so bad? I mean… they’re not raising taxes are they?”
But as someone astutely pointed out upthread, the rise in NI to be paid by employers (along with min wage rises) will absolutely be passed on to the consumer. Look forward to keeping roughly the same amount of money in your pockets but for the cost of living to increase for everyone.

That poster made a good point about how businesses whose staffing costs are a big proportion of their expenses such as nurseries… their fees will have to increase to cover it. Childcare is already too expensive as it is!

Now don’t get me wrong, I don’t have any skin in this game as such. I don’t use childcare anymore and I have a lot of disposable income (by choice, I earn very well but live well within my means) but people are being naive if they think they won’t be affected by this.

A significant number of SMEs will go to the wall - no doubt.

A combination of NI and the increase in the minimum wage.

The money had to come from somewhere.

Businesses took the brunt of it. Smaller businesses already struggling may be pushed over the edge. Still preferable to a rise in income tax, NI or VAT imo.

Nobody is daft enough to think that they won't be affected. Profits will take a hit to keep customers. Prices might ultimately rise.

It's definitely not preferable to a raise in income tax.

It's just underlined RRs weird ideological schemes, when a rise in income tax would have meant less divisiveness.

I agree on nurseries, it’ll be tough. I’m not at that stage anymore but cc fees can be prohibitive already for many

I guess we will have to wait and see what the impact is.

People I've spoken to, people I've seen being interviewed on tv and on sm, seem relieved.

It's not possible to raise money without hurting anybody.

Won't help larger nurseries but the exemption from employer NI limits have increased (although the only group of people to which that does not apply is a mother having to pay for full time childcare at home as they don't get the exemption)".Reeves increased the employment allowance from £5,000 to £10,500, meaning 865,000 businesses will not pay any NI at all next year, with another one million paying the same or less as they did previously." When I employed 2 sons under PAYE I was surprised to see that allowance meant I had no employer NI to pay at all due to the allowance and yet when I employed childcare I had to pay employer NI. I do think Reeves should extend the allowance to full time working parents who need to employ childcare but I don't think that would comply with her political views and she would probably say - use a childminder (even if a young doctor could not rely on that for 50 hours a week of regular childcare given shifts etc)

I thought she'd allowed some mitigations for small businesses?

from the budget document:

To support small businesses with these (NICs) changes, the government is increasing the Employment Allowance from £5,000 to £10,500 and removing the £100,000 threshold, expanding this to all eligible employers. This means that 865,000 employers will pay no NICs next year.

The stamp duty change is the big one. Switching it to being a requirement at £125,000 rather than £249,000 will put the kibosh on so many people being able to get on the property ladder, when it's hard enough already. Such a bad move.

It’s odd, isn’t it, especially when you best in mind the constant reminders they more affordable housing is needed.

Exactly. It should be so obvious to people that giving the employer additional costs will just swallow up any potential payrise they're able to give to their employees. So the employees will effectively be paying this hike themselves.

Exactly. Surely no sane person can think this is a good idea...

It's fine to be opposed to those things IF the state offering is good enough. It isn't.

This budget is about penalising those who have the audacity to aim a bit higher.

Private school parents - to pay more VAT.
Small businesses - to pay more NI.
First time buyers - to pay SD from 125k

That's just for starters. Exactly how is any of this 'progress'?

And good for them if they can!

Honestly, the inverse snobbery on this thread is wild!

Yep and the OBR have backed this up, I expect employees count as 'working people'

Well at least you're honest about your colossal selfishness and greed.
God forbid the undeserving povs get any help, you need a new Merc.
No such thing as society, I'm all right Jack.

We don’t live in a socialist or comunist society if you wish this, there is plenty of places you can live?

We don’t live in an entirely market led society either. There aren’t too many around for you to choose, though, for fairly obvious reasons.

Edit: there aren’t that many socialist or communist ones either, in fairness. Lots of democratic socialist and mixed-but-leaning-towards-socially-driven ones.

Out of curiosity, how much extra is the nhs going to habe to pay out in the national insurance increase, the min wage increase, assume auxiliary staff on that type of wage, and doctor and nurse increases. How much of the money now allocated will just pay for all of that.

Wait for the NHS plan which follows the review and the allocation of funds.

The money has to be raised though doesn't it?

Or are we all delighted with how things are, how the tories have governed for 14 years?

Yes, business will shoulder the biggest burden.

Yes, some of that will be felt by us as employees and as consumers. It is inevitable if we want to end austerity and try something different because it didn't work.

I didn't see many on mn worried about farmers over the past 14 years when the BPS was cut, impact of Brexit, 15000 hectares lost to development.

I didn't see any legal action against private schools who have consistently increased fees by more than inflation, but apparently the VAT will be crippling to parents and schools will close.

The treasury has said it has set aside funding to protect the public sector - including NHS - from the NI increase. It is not clear whether this includes GP practices.

The NHS Confederation has issued a media response to the budget and appears supportive.

Pp has a point, if we stopped subsidising children born into poverty or older people with no pension then they wouldn’t survive as long draining the NHS.

Perhaps the able bodied could engage in some sort of feudal servitude for those ~lucky~ clever enough to have ~inherited~ bought large properties

How about properly punishing feckless parents who fail to take financial responsibility for their offspring.

That would be a start.