Page 12 | Nervous/anxious/scared about the Autumn budget 2024

Cartwrightandson · 2024-10-26T18:29:31+00:00

I know that we don't know any details. We have read or heard bits that might be incorrect or just plain wrong. I also know we won't know anything until Wednesday when Rachel Reeves publishes/announces the contents of the budget... But what we do know...it's the first labour budget for over 14 years, we've had a conservative government, austerity, brexit, covid and cost of living/interest rate increase meaning our economy is not in a good place. Our services/infrastructure haven't had much needed investment for a long time. Councils are practically bankrupt, some already are. Schools, housing, NHS, social care and economy are all struggling..to remedy this requires money and this will need to come from higher taxes. There's a 19 billion pound black hole and Labour have already removed the winter fuel allowance, showing they are willing do things that are unpopular or possibly controversial..the Labour manifesto said it wouldn't increase taxes, but now they are saying they have to. They've already allocated money for Ukraine, teachers, train drivers, junior doctors, NHS staff ect Keir said people who don't 'work' for their income (shares/savings/landlord income) aren't classed as working people and will be taxed.. Basically this budget is going to need to raise taxes to pay for investment in services. That much we do know. But where the cuts and the tax increase will be is unknown. I don't think anyone will be 'better off'... Possibilities.. (note these are not absolute, I could be very wrong) Inheritance tax changes Fuel duty increase Income tax increase Social housing rent increase Benefit cuts No free universal prescription for over 60s Change to tax free allowance Removal of help to buy, right to buy and alterations to stamp duty Pension age to increase State pension to decrease? Tuition fees to increase Tax free pension allowance to be reduced Isa/bond/shares/investments taxed Who really knows...but I think the labour comms are possibly leaking information so that we are being drip fed so when the budget does happen we already know and are braced/prepared for it. Or what is being leaked about the budget is really bad but when the budget happens we are relieved it wasn't as bad the leaks hinted at. But it is still painful but we are more accepting because it's not as bad as it could have been...if that makes sense.

EasternStandard · 28/10/2024 18:23

Smoothopera · 28/10/2024 18:17

That’s ok then. No loyalty to the people or country of the UK. Who’d have thought.

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This is bizarre, you're better off not pushing people off than this

IKEAJesus · 28/10/2024 18:23

BIossomtoes · 28/10/2024 18:18

Not in the EU you can’t.

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It’s not that difficult to move to the EU if you have skills people want.

Smoothopera · 28/10/2024 18:24

Startingagainandagain · 28/10/2024 18:19

I voted Labour and so far I am not impressed.

They have managed to:

go for pensioners
scare vulnerable, disabled people who now fear they will lose the little money they get from the state
fail to keep the bus fare £2 cap (although buses are more likely to be used by the lower paid and are a lifeline for people in rural areas)
leave small business with the real possibility of having to make some of their staff redundant, or at least put a freeze on pay rises, if the budget increases their national insurance contribution.

Meanwhile they:

are still allowing utility companies to fleece us
have failed to announce any measure to make big corporate companies and wealthy individuals pay their fair share of tax
have failed to look at reforming MPs' expenses so that they are not getting all their bills and housing subsidised by the taxpayer while the average worker struggles
are watering down their long awaited reform to workers' right
agreed public sector pay rises that we can't even afford.

Basically I did not vote to get the Tories 2.0 in power.

Blaming the Tories for everything is also getting really old as an excuse.

If Labour wanted to do what's best for the country they would also accept that we can't afford to prop up foreign aid and the war in Ukraine endlessly while we have people in this country who don't have money to eat proper meals and keep warm.

Do better Starmer.

Edited

How long have they got then ? Tories had 14 years, Labour 4 months ?
Do you understand the horrendous state of the economy and the overall country’s infrastructure ? You do realise that to invest in public services we have to sacrifice something otherwise we’ll lose them ?
Are you aware of some of the good things that have gone on particularly in the form of legislation behind the scenes ?

Drfosters · 28/10/2024 18:24

Flatulence · 28/10/2024 18:18

So many, many reasons why this is happening but in a massively truncated nutshell:

Covid had a massive impact on forecast growth (there wasn't any) and the billions and billions spent on furlough/business support/testing/vaccine rollout. Some of it was well spent, some was appalling badly spent (hello PPE scandal). All of that combined created a vast hole in the budget.

A lot of long-term spending decisions are made on forecast (or simply assumed) economic growth. The UK economy has performed really poorly (for various reasons - some controllable, some not) and therefore growth has been minimal, netting HMT less money than it needs.

There are also a lot of working age people who don't work, and again that results in less money coming into HMT than one would expect based on demographics, so that's meant long term projections are wrong and there's less money than expected. These aren't necessarily people who are on benefits etc - they're often people who have just decided to pack in work earlier than they planned and are living off a private pension/savings etc.

Wages have stalled across all sectors while lots of costs (e.g. for medicines, for building supplies for schools, for contractors to work on roads, the cost of energy to heat public buildings) have spiralled. So there's about the same amount of money coming in, but a lot more going out.

Failure to invest in infrastructure for decades - under various governments - meaning that now huge projects are needed (e.g. RAAC remediation, hospital rebuilds, dangerously overcrowded prisons, poo in rivers).

Outright mismanagement in both the public sector and in the private sector that relies on public funding: HS2; train operating companies who cream off the profits then need to be bailed out by the taxpayer; PPE (see above); water companies doing similar to the train companies (see point above about poo in the rivers).

And there's the whole thing of very rich people paying comparatively little tax. E.g. Rishi Sunak (an extremely wealthy man) paid less tax than Keir Starmer (who's certainly got more than a few bob but not the eye-watering levels of Sunak). Such policies are meant to encourage investment in the UK to benefit everyone but there's not a lot of evidence that it really happens and mostly just benefits the rich.

There's much more, but that's a snapshot of why the economy is absolutely fucked.

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Now that’s an answer! Love it!

i don’t see ultimately how anything proposed in the budget is solving any of this aside from the greater borrowing for infrastructure projects (which I actually agree with as a Keynesian believer).

increasing taxes actually looks to just depress everyone and disincentivises. Struggling to see how this would work. Personally I’d probably try and cut taxes particularly to small businesses to try and spur entrepreneurship.

Whatafustercluck · 28/10/2024 18:24

It is going to be terrible for lots of people, particularly those with savings - in other words those who worked hard and did not spend every penny will be hit - those who did the right thing.

This is what really irks me. The implication that anyone who doesn't have savings has been workshy and reckless with their money. It is this mentality, largely perpetuated by Tory voters, that needs challenging.

It stands to reason that those with a softer financial cushion bear the larger weight in bad times, because they largely benefit the most when times are good. And it's not the politics of envy to say such a thing. I value hard workers from all walks of life. But when you have an economic situation like we've got in the UK at present, something has to give. And in all likelihood, everyone will have to give something. Pensioners with their universally applied WFA, parents with the two child benefit cap. It's shit. I wish Labour could come in and announce loads of things that will immediately make the lives of people wealthier, happier, less stressful, more hopeful. But that was never going to happen.

I just hope that the sacrifices are equitably applied.

ScreamNow · 28/10/2024 18:25

@BIossomtoes But do they even want to work? Many discard their documents before arriving, making it difficult to identify them. How can we expect to integrate people into the workforce if we can’t verify who they are?

cardibach · 28/10/2024 18:26

Startingagainandagain · 28/10/2024 18:19

I voted Labour and so far I am not impressed.

They have managed to:

go for pensioners
scare vulnerable, disabled people who now fear they will lose the little money they get from the state
fail to keep the bus fare £2 cap (although buses are more likely to be used by the lower paid and are a lifeline for people in rural areas)
leave small business with the real possibility of having to make some of their staff redundant, or at least put a freeze on pay rises, if the budget increases their national insurance contribution.

Meanwhile they:

are still allowing utility companies to fleece us
have failed to announce any measure to make big corporate companies and wealthy individuals pay their fair share of tax
have failed to look at reforming MPs' expenses so that they are not getting all their bills and housing subsidised by the taxpayer while the average worker struggles
are watering down their long awaited reform to workers' right
agreed public sector pay rises that we can't even afford.

Basically I did not vote to get the Tories 2.0 in power.

Blaming the Tories for everything is also getting really old as an excuse.

If Labour wanted to do what's best for the country they would also accept that we can't afford to prop up foreign aid and the war in Ukraine endlessly while we have people in this country who don't have money to eat proper meals and keep warm.

Do better Starmer.

Edited

Ummm…apart from the WFA (which doesn’t ’go for pensioners, though I agree the threshold is too low) and t( public sector pay rises (which were based on independent review bodies’ recommendations) none of that has happened yet. It might, in the budget. Maybe some, maybe all, maybe none.

Edit: I’ll give you the bus cap, too - but the Tories were set to remove that completely, and the devolved nations don’t have it anyway.

You seem torn between not wanting more Tory type financial decisions and hating any suggestion of anything more traditionally Labour. It’s all a bit odd

Wait for the budget, eh?

Smoothopera · 28/10/2024 18:26

IKEAJesus · 28/10/2024 18:23

It’s not that difficult to move to the EU if you have skills people want.

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So no 90 day rule ? (that applies to us plebs only obvs). So a Tory Brexit consigns vast majority of the UK to the UK, whilst high earners can flounce off whenever ? Great.

StarDolphins · 28/10/2024 18:28

Itsmyopinion · 28/10/2024 18:20

What are labour doing about illegal immigration - this is costing the tax payer millions per day. For me this is why the country is on its knee’s. I’m sorry but unless this government get a grip on this then no amount of increase in tax will make this country better.

Absolutely this!

BIossomtoes · 28/10/2024 18:28

ScreamNow · 28/10/2024 18:25

@BIossomtoes But do they even want to work? Many discard their documents before arriving, making it difficult to identify them. How can we expect to integrate people into the workforce if we can’t verify who they are?

Why wouldn’t they want to work?

GhosterPoster · 28/10/2024 18:28

Smoothopera · 28/10/2024 18:26

So no 90 day rule ? (that applies to us plebs only obvs). So a Tory Brexit consigns vast majority of the UK to the UK, whilst high earners can flounce off whenever ? Great.

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Erm… yes. Surely this isn’t news to you? High earners are wanted everywhere.

People who are not net contributors are not.

IKEAJesus · 28/10/2024 18:29

Smoothopera · 28/10/2024 18:26

So no 90 day rule ? (that applies to us plebs only obvs). So a Tory Brexit consigns vast majority of the UK to the UK, whilst high earners can flounce off whenever ? Great.

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Well, it’s the same as people are allowed to come to the UK to work if they have skills the country wants and / or an employer sponsoring them, but if you want to come on holiday, or move just because, there’s a limit.

StarDolphins · 28/10/2024 18:29

Startingagainandagain · 28/10/2024 18:19

I voted Labour and so far I am not impressed.

They have managed to:

go for pensioners
scare vulnerable, disabled people who now fear they will lose the little money they get from the state
fail to keep the bus fare £2 cap (although buses are more likely to be used by the lower paid and are a lifeline for people in rural areas)
leave small business with the real possibility of having to make some of their staff redundant, or at least put a freeze on pay rises, if the budget increases their national insurance contribution.

Meanwhile they:

are still allowing utility companies to fleece us
have failed to announce any measure to make big corporate companies and wealthy individuals pay their fair share of tax
have failed to look at reforming MPs' expenses so that they are not getting all their bills and housing subsidised by the taxpayer while the average worker struggles
are watering down their long awaited reform to workers' right
agreed public sector pay rises that we can't even afford.

Basically I did not vote to get the Tories 2.0 in power.

Blaming the Tories for everything is also getting really old as an excuse.

If Labour wanted to do what's best for the country they would also accept that we can't afford to prop up foreign aid and the war in Ukraine endlessly while we have people in this country who don't have money to eat proper meals and keep warm.

Do better Starmer.

Edited

Absolutely this too.

Smoothopera · 28/10/2024 18:29

StarDolphins · 28/10/2024 18:28

Absolutely this!

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Tories had 14 years. Labour 4 months or so. You’re not serious are you ? Any fool knows the absolute mess they left us in will take longer than a few months to remedy.

ScreamNow · 28/10/2024 18:31

@BIossomtos Why would they throw away their documents, or choose not to stop in the first safe country? The journey to the U.K. is long, and entire Europe isn’t war-torn. So what’s really motivating them to make this trek. It's definitely not good weather...

Smoothopera · 28/10/2024 18:31

EasternStandard · 28/10/2024 18:23

This is bizarre, you're better off not pushing people off than this

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Bizarre? Righto but only if you’re wealthy yourself I guess.

EasternStandard · 28/10/2024 18:32

Itsmyopinion · 28/10/2024 18:20

What are labour doing about illegal immigration - this is costing the tax payer millions per day. For me this is why the country is on its knee’s. I’m sorry but unless this government get a grip on this then no amount of increase in tax will make this country better.

Currently nothing, bar seeing the crossing and fatality rate increase in the channel

cardibach · 28/10/2024 18:33

Itsmyopinion · 28/10/2024 18:20

What are labour doing about illegal immigration - this is costing the tax payer millions per day. For me this is why the country is on its knee’s. I’m sorry but unless this government get a grip on this then no amount of increase in tax will make this country better.

I don’t think you mean illegal immigration. Illegal immigrants don’t tend to cost anything as they don’t get anything at all - they’re illegal so can’t come in contact with the authorities in any way.
I suspect you mean asylum seekers - they are costing so much because the Tories basically stopped assessing claims so the numbers built up, in hotels being paid for by us because state facilities were full. Maybe think about who that might have benefitted (clue: it’s not the asylum seekers).

BIossomtoes · 28/10/2024 18:33

ScreamNow · 28/10/2024 18:31

@BIossomtos Why would they throw away their documents, or choose not to stop in the first safe country? The journey to the U.K. is long, and entire Europe isn’t war-torn. So what’s really motivating them to make this trek. It's definitely not good weather...

It’s not the generosity of what they receive either. Family ties? The majority of asylum seekers are from Afghanistan and, given the way this country shat on them, we owe them.

Julen7 · 28/10/2024 18:34

Itsmyopinion · 28/10/2024 18:20

What are labour doing about illegal immigration - this is costing the tax payer millions per day. For me this is why the country is on its knee’s. I’m sorry but unless this government get a grip on this then no amount of increase in tax will make this country better.

At the moment, nothing.

StarDolphins · 28/10/2024 18:34

Smoothopera · 28/10/2024 18:29

Tories had 14 years. Labour 4 months or so. You’re not serious are you ? Any fool knows the absolute mess they left us in will take longer than a few months to remedy.

Edited

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Yes I am absolutely serious, why else would I have said it?

You know when you have a gut feeling? I have one & I absolutely doubt LP will improve things. Infact, I am sure that in a year, things will be worse or at the very least, the same.

Still nothing about how he proposes to start fixing NHS.

EasternStandard · 28/10/2024 18:35

cardibach · 28/10/2024 18:33

I don’t think you mean illegal immigration. Illegal immigrants don’t tend to cost anything as they don’t get anything at all - they’re illegal so can’t come in contact with the authorities in any way.
I suspect you mean asylum seekers - they are costing so much because the Tories basically stopped assessing claims so the numbers built up, in hotels being paid for by us because state facilities were full. Maybe think about who that might have benefitted (clue: it’s not the asylum seekers).

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They must be costing a lot due to the higher numbers crossing the channel?

Not to mention the increased deaths due to riskier passage

MillyMollyMandHey · 28/10/2024 18:35

This thread just sums up the naivety of the tAx tHe RiCh crew.

Not a clue.

Spendingtoomuchonfood · 28/10/2024 18:35

Cartwrightandson · 26/10/2024 19:45

From what I've heard, social housing rents might be means tested and households with higher income might pay more. I could be wrong, 🤔 😔

Sounds sensible.

TheNoonBell · 28/10/2024 18:35

AquaPeer · 28/10/2024 17:52

Labour has black hole as in the first six weeks they spent billions on pay rises we couldn’t afford

you don’t really believe this surely? Are you having us on?

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The payrises cost £9.4 billion. That was just the raises, then add a big lump later down the line for the extra pension payments on already very generous pensions.

There is also talk of the public sector being exempt from the NI increase on employers pension contributions.

The public sector pension deficit is currently around £2.6 trillion. Yes trillion, that's 2,600 billion pounds. Guess who will have to pay it.