Nervous/anxious/scared about the Autumn budget 2024

[Cartwrightandson]

I know that we don't know any details. We have read or heard bits that might be incorrect or just plain wrong. I also know we won't know anything until Wednesday when Rachel Reeves publishes/announces the contents of the budget...

But what we do know...it's the first labour budget for over 14 years, we've had a conservative government, austerity, brexit, covid and cost of living/interest rate increase meaning our economy is not in a good place.

Our services/infrastructure haven't had much needed investment for a long time.
Councils are practically bankrupt, some already are. Schools, housing, NHS, social care and economy are all struggling..to remedy this requires money and this will need to come from higher taxes.

There's a 19 billion pound black hole and Labour have already removed the winter fuel allowance, showing they are willing do things that are unpopular or possibly controversial..the Labour manifesto said it wouldn't increase taxes, but now they are saying they have to.

They've already allocated money for Ukraine, teachers, train drivers, junior doctors, NHS staff ect

Keir said people who don't 'work' for their income (shares/savings/landlord income) aren't classed as working people and will be taxed..

Basically this budget is going to need to raise taxes to pay for investment in services. That much we do know. But where the cuts and the tax increase will be is unknown. I don't think anyone will be 'better off'...

Possibilities.. (note these are not absolute, I could be very wrong)

Inheritance tax changes
Fuel duty increase
Income tax increase
Social housing rent increase
Benefit cuts
No free universal prescription for over 60s
Change to tax free allowance
Removal of help to buy, right to buy and alterations to stamp duty
Pension age to increase
State pension to decrease?
Tuition fees to increase
Tax free pension allowance to be reduced
Isa/bond/shares/investments taxed

Who really knows...but I think the labour comms are possibly leaking information so that we are being drip fed so when the budget does happen we already know and are braced/prepared for it.

Or what is being leaked about the budget is really bad but when the budget happens we are relieved it wasn't as bad the leaks hinted at. But it is still painful but we are more accepting because it's not as bad as it could have been...if that makes sense.

Opt out of what exactly ? Can’t have the very well off being burdened can we. They might stop spending. Meanwhile the poors can’t afford to heat their homes and have to use food banks but hey, who cares.

Let’s get Nige in. He’ll solve everything. It’s been a shit show for the last 14 years. Better not tell you about Brexit 😂

By moving. I’m not getting up in the morning to work for other people to heat their homes. It’s not my issue to solve. Neither was paying tube drivers.

I’m close to my limit, I won’t be the only one.

What did they spend, spend, spend on?

You do realise people's behaviour can change? There's no point ignoring what people do, it won't help 'the poors' as you put them if you can't get tax receipts up.

I didn't support the last Tories very very high taxes on those of us on over £80k (the top 10% - we have the highest tax burden in 70 years. I don't think Labour are going to help either. Tax tax tax. Those other 90% have had tax or NI cuts since 2010. I don't think the budget is going to be good news for many people and women who employ child care will be hit hard if employer NI goes up and if it is imposed on pensions too.

Honestly how do you think you will be fucked ?

So far I am better off under them. Will see after the budget.

Why didn’t you move when the Tories were in power ? They spaffed money up the wall for loads of things. It’s laughable. And where will you move to. Not EU that’s for sure. Fucked that up for us didn’t you?

Move then.

Well it seems me and my brain cell are good enough to be taxed every which way, so I suppose we should be good enough for you.

Learn to show some appreciation.

Maybe at some point a bit further into their tenure than 100 and whatever days though, don’t you think? Your post sounds like you think Labour have been in power for, say, 14 years…
‘No one is buying this shit show is their fault any more’??. What? They’ve only just got in. They’ve done very little yet. Whose fault do you think it is at this point?

I think it is very naive for people to assume that a higher tax burden on businesses without clear incentives for economic growth in the UK won't lead to people looking at other options.

Especially if there is a lack of clarity over where the additional tax burden is going to be spent.

• Raise income tax across the board. The UK tax burden is lower than most other European countries. Interestingly, several Scandinavian countries (which is often mentioned) have a higher income tax burden amongst low/middle earners than here.

• Don't love the capital gains tax increase but would make sense to increase but needs to take account of inflation.

• Tax global, multi-billion revenue companies

• Introduce a small fee for using the NHS (with a ceiling for those who genuinely need to use the services frequently) - so many missed appointments, so many unnecessary appointments including in A&E.

• Tax gambling and increase taxes on cigarettes etc.

• Introduce a limit on rental increases.

• Introduce more strict policies around sick leave in the public sector - too many instances of abuse (people taking days off ill even when not unwell - was a thread on here recently which was eye opening but also heard similar from people who work in the civil service).

• Introduce a state pension that is dependent not just on number of years worked but how many hours you worked/what you earned. It doesn't make sense that someone who has worked 2 hours/week should get the same as someone who has worked full time.

• Make childcare cheaper so that more parents can work (which would raise tax).

I don't agree with taxing education. It's punitive, and goes against the grain compared with globally. It also doesn't make sense fiscally.

If you work for a big international corporation, you can still move anywhere easily.

I’m hoping they step up with a plan to get those who aren’t working (excluding the disabled) contributing to the system. Taxes have their limits, and while income tax hasn’t risen yet, I’m almost certain it’s only a matter of time

That’s ok then. No loyalty to the people or country of the UK. Who’d have thought.

Not in the EU you can’t.

So many, many reasons why this is happening but in a massively truncated nutshell:

Covid had a massive impact on forecast growth (there wasn't any) and the billions and billions spent on furlough/business support/testing/vaccine rollout. Some of it was well spent, some was appalling badly spent (hello PPE scandal). All of that combined created a vast hole in the budget.

A lot of long-term spending decisions are made on forecast (or simply assumed) economic growth. The UK economy has performed really poorly (for various reasons - some controllable, some not) and therefore growth has been minimal, netting HMT less money than it needs.

There are also a lot of working age people who don't work, and again that results in less money coming into HMT than one would expect based on demographics, so that's meant long term projections are wrong and there's less money than expected. These aren't necessarily people who are on benefits etc - they're often people who have just decided to pack in work earlier than they planned and are living off a private pension/savings etc.

Wages have stalled across all sectors while lots of costs (e.g. for medicines, for building supplies for schools, for contractors to work on roads, the cost of energy to heat public buildings) have spiralled. So there's about the same amount of money coming in, but a lot more going out.

Failure to invest in infrastructure for decades - under various governments - meaning that now huge projects are needed (e.g. RAAC remediation, hospital rebuilds, dangerously overcrowded prisons, poo in rivers).

Outright mismanagement in both the public sector and in the private sector that relies on public funding: HS2; train operating companies who cream off the profits then need to be bailed out by the taxpayer; PPE (see above); water companies doing similar to the train companies (see point above about poo in the rivers).

And there's the whole thing of very rich people paying comparatively little tax. E.g. Rishi Sunak (an extremely wealthy man) paid less tax than Keir Starmer (who's certainly got more than a few bob but not the eye-watering levels of Sunak). Such policies are meant to encourage investment in the UK to benefit everyone but there's not a lot of evidence that it really happens and mostly just benefits the rich.

There's much more, but that's a snapshot of why the economy is absolutely fucked.

Maybe go the other way about it - don’t publish speculation until the budget is out. It’s just worries people for no reason, and a lot of it is obvious nonsense designed to do exactly that.

Ahhh the loyalty argument.

No I don’t care.

I voted Labour and so far I am not impressed.

They have managed to:

• go for pensioners
• scare vulnerable, disabled people who now fear they will lose the little money they get from the state
• fail to keep the bus fare £2 cap (although buses are more likely to be used by the lower paid and are a lifeline for people in rural areas)
• leave small business with the real possibility of having to make some of their staff redundant, or at least put a freeze on pay rises, if the budget increases their national insurance contribution.

Meanwhile they:

• are still allowing utility companies to fleece us
• have failed to announce any measure to make big corporate companies and wealthy individuals pay their fair share of tax
• have failed to look at reforming MPs' expenses so that they are not getting all their bills and housing subsidised by the taxpayer while the average worker struggles
• are watering down their long awaited reform to workers' right
• agreed public sector pay rises that we can't even afford.

Basically I did not vote to get the Tories 2.0 in power.

Blaming the Tories for everything is also getting really old as an excuse.

If Labour wanted to do what's best for the country they would also accept that we can't afford to prop up foreign aid and the war in Ukraine endlessly while we have people in this country who don't have money to eat proper meals and keep warm.

Do better Starmer.

Probably got ways and means for ‘high fliers’. I’m not sure though but wouldn’t be surprised.

What are labour doing about illegal immigration - this is costing the tax payer millions per day. For me this is why the country is on its knee’s. I’m sorry but unless this government get a grip on this then no amount of increase in tax will make this country better.

Maybe we should just allow asylum seekers to work so, not only are they not costing us anything, but they’re paying tax.

Of course you can. Work sponsorship visas are simple.