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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Labour are going to crash the economy/jobs market.

210 replies

Batmanisaplaceinturkey · 15/10/2024 11:23

Just a few of the changes
-Making it harder to dismiss a bad hire.
-SSP a percentage of earnings, available from day one of sickness.

And now plans to raise employers NI.

All very well if the employer is Amazon or Google but not so much the independent coffee shop down the road, the plumbers merchant, the cobblers, the florist etc. More expenses and red tape for them but who cares eh. Even if they do survive their costs will have to rise.

Labours plans will have unintended consequences.

OP posts:
Leniriefenstahl · 15/10/2024 23:26

GoldenSunflowers · 15/10/2024 21:30

It’s been flat for the past 2 years IME

I know quite a few young graduates who can’t find work. They were unemployed before the GE. Especially IT ones.

Leniriefenstahl · 15/10/2024 23:27

Belle96 · 15/10/2024 21:46

I have my own very small business that heavily relies on the public spending their money, its already started to slow with the rumblings that have happened and the increases to keep my lovely 6 members off staff on would undoubtedly mean I would have to dissolve.
This is 9 years in the making and building to what was a lovely business and livelihood for my staff.
I do unfortunately worry about what Labour will bring in as this will take away a living for at least 7 families

That might mean nothing to you but that's 6 families I now have to start trying to plan for this not to happen for when I need to also ensure my own will get through this tough period

And just to add, when you advertise a salary which most people think is OK and will work for, there is atleast and extra 1k cost for the business to find to pay which ultimately has to be passed on to the customer. Yes the wages show the deductions on the payslip but the business has to generate enough work to then cover this and then more, let's not even bring in corporation tax and VAT costs. I suggest you educate yourself more on these percentages.

It's loose loose for small businesses, and this will almost certainly kill off quite a lot.

How did Brexit affect it ?

GoldenSunflowers · 15/10/2024 23:43

Leniriefenstahl · 15/10/2024 23:26

I know quite a few young graduates who can’t find work. They were unemployed before the GE. Especially IT ones.

Yep, same here. Young, old, lots are struggling to find a new job.

Contrastinggrassstates · 16/10/2024 01:38

I thought it had already crashed hadn’t it?

TempestTost · 16/10/2024 02:24

Making it difficult to fire people is a delicate balance. Workers do need protections. There are already some things you can't hire someone for, and I think there should maybe protections around workers social and political views to a greater degree than there is.

But, when you make it too hard to get rid of bad workers, employers respond by hiring fewer people, or in many cases by hiring temporary workers or contract workers so they are not tied to a person who is lazy or a troublemaker.

I saw an interview with a lady once talking about how difficult it was to fire someone in her country - you pretty much couldn't. She said it was a major problem for businesses there. You do see that in places where it can be so much work to fire people it's a huge effort - you get a high percentage of workers who coast. My sister used to work at a place (kind of a civil service type organization) where it was so difficult to fire anyone they would either a) offer them a big severance package (usually the higher ups) or b) stick them in a not-real position and try and make their lives miserable (more low level people typically.)

I do get the sense at the moment some of the proposals aren't realistic. The stuff about the right to WFH strikes me as odd too - of course people can try and negotiate this, but presumably a person who hires you gets to define what the job you are being hired to do is? They don't need to pay someone to work in a way they don't think is best?

rainfallpurevividcat · 16/10/2024 02:32

IDontHateRainbows · 15/10/2024 14:48

And how much less money was left for Labour after the Tories left this year?

We are more in debt in 2024 than we ever were in 2010.

Labour PM Ted Heath?

He was a Tory. Fucking hell, how embarrassing.

mumda · 16/10/2024 05:15

Drinas · 15/10/2024 21:36

How is the economy supposed to flourish if businesses keep exploiting people with zero hour contracts and poor conditions and expecting the welfare state to pick it up?

I don't principally agree with the concept of tax credits for working people. If employers can’t pay their staff a decent wage (which is way above NMW) they don’t have a viable business. It’s more complex than that as cost would be passed to consumers but is some ways thats true cost, not subsidised businesses.

It would be interesting to see a full list of all companies who have employees on tax credit s or UC.
I suspect part time work avoiding employers NI is partly to blame.

Pre tax credits (if anyone remembers that) overtime was common and was a way of filling a financial hiccup.
Did doorstep loans explode at the same time as tax credits jumped up?

The best way to have a healthy job market is to have less red tape and interference.

rwalker · 16/10/2024 05:30

They want business to grow then it seems they are going nothing more than making it harder for them

jen337 · 16/10/2024 05:34

I think what you’ll find is happening is the asset stripping that began in the 80s under that old hag is reaching its natural conclusion, we’ve run out of assets to strip. One of the few remains being the NHS, which has been given a stay of execution thanks to Labour winning. Turns out handing over national resources to deregulated private enterprise doesn’t result in better service and trickle down wealth, in case you haven’t traveled by train or passed by any sewage infested waterways recently.

VeronicaWouldntStandForThat · 16/10/2024 05:39

Labour won't be happy until we've all had our homes repossessed, and all living on fuck all universal basic income, in recession, while a certain few live it up at our expense. And I'm not talking about the rich.

VeronicaWouldntStandForThat · 16/10/2024 05:41

rwalker · 16/10/2024 05:30

They want business to grow then it seems they are going nothing more than making it harder for them

They don't want businesses to grow. The petty minded imbeciles want anyone with 'more than' to lose it to the state.

GoldenSunflowers · 16/10/2024 06:52

@VeronicaWouldntStandForThat as they say nowadays, are you ok? Or just got up on the wrong side of the bed?

Whatafustercluck · 16/10/2024 07:39

Mummyoflittledragon · 15/10/2024 14:45

I don’t follow politics as closely. Off the top of my head.

Under Labour PM Ted Heath - the 1973 the 3 day working week caused by a lack of energy with dwindling reserves of fuel exacerbated by the Minor’s strike of 1972.

Overspending in good times meaning there was no money saved for good times with the 2008 global financial crisis. The famous letter left for the conservatives “I’m afraid there is no money”.

Tony Blair’s PFI hospital financing scandal, the consequences of which is still felt to this day, 25 plus years on.

The lack of confidence in the current Labour government with their on the back of a postage stamp decisions just over 100 days in.

I agree your list is incomplete and Labour’s list will be shorter just by dint of them being fewer years in office.

Both parties are equally clueless imo.

An independent source I was looking at prior to the General Election had a good, fully evidenced comparison of how the UK economy has fared under governments of different colours. It found that Labour governments actually came out on top, notwithstanding they've had fewer years in power. The narrative that Tories are better with the economy is a false one.

But UK economies tend to go in circles of boom and bust, whichever way you look at it. Periods of relative stability, high employment, high house prices, good prospects wherever you turn, followed by (for a variety of reasons) what we're seeing now. I will judge Labour's handling of it at the end of their term(s) in office.

I have to admit, even as a lifelong Labour supporter, I am unconvinced about an employers' NI increase. I agree with their other policies to protect/ extend employees rights though.

GoldenSunflowers · 16/10/2024 07:48

Ted Heath was Tory PM. The 3 day week lasted from 1.1.74 to 7.3.74.

VeronicaWouldntStandForThat · 16/10/2024 08:32

GoldenSunflowers · 16/10/2024 06:52

@VeronicaWouldntStandForThat as they say nowadays, are you ok? Or just got up on the wrong side of the bed?

Nope, just a realist.
It was obvious this was going to happen.

GoldenSunflowers · 16/10/2024 08:38

VeronicaWouldntStandForThat · 16/10/2024 08:32

Nope, just a realist.
It was obvious this was going to happen.

What is “this” in this global statement? I don’t see anything yet to support “petty minded imbeciles”, or the next bit, which is nebulous.

PepoAmericano · 16/10/2024 09:34

WestwardHo1 · 15/10/2024 14:08

This is simplistic garbage.

If you were to think even a tiny bit about it, imagine what someone on the very first day of their job announcing they were pregnant would do to a tiny business employing four skilled, hard to find workers (including the employer who works twice as hard as any of the people s/he employs). Or someone calling in on their fourth day of work announcing they had been signed off with anxiety.

Edited

Those situations wouldn't be affected by this as the government pays for maternity pay (and also maternity does not equate to sickness, so not sure why you're bringing that up?). And to claim sickness you have to prove you are unwell with a doctor after a certain number of days off. Also sick pay is only a percentage of your pay, not all of it, and it also paid by the government. The hand-wringing on this thread is of a different nature.

PepoAmericano · 16/10/2024 09:36

People: (vote for the party of the workers)
Party of the workers: (strengthen worker's rights)
People: (shocked pikachu face)

PepoAmericano · 16/10/2024 09:41

Also, regarding NI hike, what they've basically done is said 'right, employers have had years to pay people fairly, since they won't, we'll make them pay' and seized the money themselves. If they won't give it to workers they can bloody well give it to the government. Greedy twats.

VimtoVimto · 16/10/2024 16:19

PepoAmericano · 16/10/2024 09:34

Those situations wouldn't be affected by this as the government pays for maternity pay (and also maternity does not equate to sickness, so not sure why you're bringing that up?). And to claim sickness you have to prove you are unwell with a doctor after a certain number of days off. Also sick pay is only a percentage of your pay, not all of it, and it also paid by the government. The hand-wringing on this thread is of a different nature.

Edited

SSP is not recouped from the government except in certain cases, but I agree with everything else you say.

WestwardHo1 · 16/10/2024 18:03

PepoAmericano · 16/10/2024 09:34

Those situations wouldn't be affected by this as the government pays for maternity pay (and also maternity does not equate to sickness, so not sure why you're bringing that up?). And to claim sickness you have to prove you are unwell with a doctor after a certain number of days off. Also sick pay is only a percentage of your pay, not all of it, and it also paid by the government. The hand-wringing on this thread is of a different nature.

Edited

You're missing the point I made.

Small businesses need reliable tight knit teams. Absence is very hard to fill.

What about the inconvenience and disruption? You can't just instantly fill a role, especially one which its occupant has only just been appointed to.

PepoAmericano · 16/10/2024 18:10

WestwardHo1 · 16/10/2024 18:03

You're missing the point I made.

Small businesses need reliable tight knit teams. Absence is very hard to fill.

What about the inconvenience and disruption? You can't just instantly fill a role, especially one which its occupant has only just been appointed to.

In the same way you can't just instantly fill a role though you should also not be able to instantly dismiss someone or not even offer them a proper working contract. It goes both ways, for too long employers have been having their cake and eating it.

WestwardHo1 · 16/10/2024 18:27

PepoAmericano · 16/10/2024 18:10

In the same way you can't just instantly fill a role though you should also not be able to instantly dismiss someone or not even offer them a proper working contract. It goes both ways, for too long employers have been having their cake and eating it.

Stop tarring "employers" all with the same brush!

They are not the enemy. They're providing employment. As someone mentioned earlier SMEs and micro businesses are 50% of the workforce.

Clavinova · 16/10/2024 18:42

SunriseMonsters
[Brexit] is worse than that. It's 4% of GDP. £124bn per year currently of GDP lost. The overall tax rate for the UK economy is 35.3% so that is nearly £44bn of lost tax revenue just this year as a result of Brexit. Getting higher year after year...
It's not just been "found". It's been well documented and analysed ever since Brexit. In fact, it was forecast surprisingly accurately beforehand. Hardly new information to anybody with a basic grip on economics.

The figures and studies you refer to are not 'surprisingly accurate' at all - they are simply another set of estimates which may or may not be accurate. The post-Brexit estimates use modelling to create a synthetic (or doppelgänger UK) and the media wrongly report this modelling as fact;

Full Fact
What Was Claimed
There has been an annual £40 billion tax drop because of Brexit.

Our Verdict
This figure is based on a counterfactual estimate of the extra amount of tax revenue that might have been generated annually had the UK not voted to leave the EU. The actual amount of tax revenue generated in the UK has increased.

This analysis is among a range of models which have attempted to estimate the potential impact of Brexit on the UK economy, many of which offer varying conclusions.

Crucially, this is not the same as saying that the UK’s tax revenue has actually fallen by this much since the EU referendum. This was not made clear in the Guardian’s article.

Inaccurate use of statistics without appropriate context can damage public trust in both the statistics and intermediaries like national newspapers. Caveats and context should always be included when claims are made, and oversights rectified when they occur. We’re grateful to The Guardian for correcting the article.

https://fullfact.org/economy/tax-revenue-Brexit/

PepoAmericano · 16/10/2024 19:03

WestwardHo1 · 16/10/2024 18:27

Stop tarring "employers" all with the same brush!

They are not the enemy. They're providing employment. As someone mentioned earlier SMEs and micro businesses are 50% of the workforce.

As another PP mentioned, employers don't create jobs, the market does. If they fail to comply with regulation they will be dealt with. Personally I don't really want to live in a country where people (usually the hardest working in the most essential of roles) are exploited so openly.