UK fertility rate drops by 18.8% in 12 years

[MidnightPatrol]

The UK has the fastest falling fertility rate in the G7.

2022 saw the lowest number of births for 20 years.

The current TFR is 1.49 births per woman.

What do you think the reason for this is, and what could be done to reverse the trend?

news.sky.com/story/amp/britains-fertility-rate-falling-faster-than-any-other-g7-country-with-austerity-thought-to-be-a-principal-factor-13232314

Have you saved enough to pay for all your medical costs between ages 70 and 90?

For example, in developed countries that may be the case but a birth rate of 2.1 in areas of lower survival e.g. Africa, its less likely due to less healthcare availability.

Yep higher mortality rates - less access to heath care in general and contraceptives - less or later urbanisation so vary need of child labour - less educational female population - lots of reasons that have nothing to do with the 18.8 % drop in UK fertility rates in last 12 years.

I think austerity cuts - less good maternity care - and rising prices are problem with UK.

What we'll do to deal with aging population is keep raising retirement age till it hits 70 or beyond - cut pensions in coming decades - keep high immigration rates and if we have any sense look at building more houses and childcare costs - most of which will be unpopularly with all or large sections of the population.

Some countries have tried pronatalist policies and do get slight bumps in fertility rates but do not get back up to replacement level but think Labour recently ruled these out. Lifting the 2 child benefit cap would alleviate childhood poverty and there is some evidence it's increased abortions.

https://www.bpas.org/media/5hejoy24/forced-into-a-corner-the-two-child-limit-and-pregnancy-decision-making-during-the-pandemic.pdf

Between 2016-2019, the number of abortions performed in England and Wales increased by 11.7%, from 185,596 to 208,384. Over this same period, the number of abortions performed to mothers with 2 or more existing children increased 16.4%, while for women with no existing children or one existing child, the numbers increased by 10.3% and 7% respectively.2 This disproportionate increase in the numbers of abortions performed to women with 2 or more children could be linked to the introduction of the policy.

So I'd say first thing would be getting UK governments to see any fertility decreases as an actual problem.

They solve the problem of relying on state pension

It's a bit like the opening scene of Idiocracy. All the feckless or poor people breed like rabbits and expect everyone else to pay for them, while the urban professionals might have 1 or 2 later in life once they've got all their ducks in a row, or might not bother.

@QuietlyConfident @DonnaBanana What scares me far more than not having a state pension is the future cost of services when there are fewer people of working age.

My Dad (86) needs a range of support to live independently-he has a cleaner/light housekeeper, lives in a retirement complex with a manager and a maintenance team. He doesn’t drive now so needs taxis and buses. He has a meal delivery service four times a week to cut down on cooking. With his health conditions, he also needs various medical services.

Obviously he pays for many of these services and the people providing them are under 60. What scares me slightly is how I’ll manage if I make it to 86 (I’m 50) and there are far fewer working-age people. Who knows what these services will cost when there’s a shortage of providers? How will we oldies afford them?!

As I said upthread, what the youth of today need to concentrate on is developing technologies such as driverless cars and buses to plug the human gaps.

The cost of housing is the main issue. Somehow we now need 2 x incomes and still struggle to buy something, rather than the 1 x income of the past. Governments and banks have done this.

Well then this is good news - as it poorer women in lower social economic areas who have started having fewer kids in last 12 years in UK where as previously it was more educated women in high income areas (which is still happening as well).

This is in many respects what 2 child cap and even austerity wanted to achieve.

Have you got your own hospital, ambulance, police force, road roller, street lights, army?

And do you actually want to live in a country where people without a comfortable private pension are left to rot? Would witnessing that not make your life a little less pleasant?

Yes exactly, people are so unrealistic, I'm not convinced that the young people today will have this all covered by AI in 20 years time.

Goodness, what a simplified and crass way to look at things.

Cost of childcare
lack of support
poor healthcare
pay is too low at all levels

Coat and abysmal maternal health services are the big ticket items
more broadly our attitude just sucks.

As a society in Britain we treat children as a nuisance not a joy.

we also treat women who have children like shit at every level of society from queuing to pay in shops to shafting them in divorce / sharing of assets and CMS payments

there is a very heavy price to pay and a lot of women don’t want to sign up for it.

Well, if £17/week is a decision making criteria for a family to have another child or not then it's probably good that they don't.

Argggg no they don't because they WON'T PAY OUT EITHER

I am sure you love it and fair play to you but I don't like children at any age. For me, it seems to go:

-Sleep depriving pooing potato
(Childcare expense kicks in)
-Sleep depriving pooing kamikaze with the blocks thing
-Mummummummummum stage
(No more holidays in terms time kick in)
-Endless homework support
(School trips expense kicks in)
-You still have to take them everywhere for some reason
-Mental health crises
-annoying know-it-all phase
-Standing on the side of sporting pitches in the freezing cold (or sitting in drafting orchestra/dance/drama halls)
-I HATE YOU MUM WHY DO YOU HAVE TO BE SUCH A BITCH
-Off to university (or drugs/drop out)
(University, flat deposit or on duty solicitor expenses kicks in)
-They leave and call you once a year to ask for money
-They put you in a home and you cry for your husband who died many years ago
-you die

Fertility rates are declining rapidly across the entire world, especially so in most developed countries.

If you take e.g. Germany or Hungary, the level of support they provide to families with children, silly low cost of childcare, taxation exemption, the list goes on, still their fertility rates are about 1.58.

Even in Africa it's declined from 4.7 to 4.1 in the same 12 years which is 13%.

Probably not a bad thing given planet's resources

I missed out having to "socialise" by hanging out with other parents awkwardly at extortionate parties

Well it's the cap and the cut in services and the rising cost of housing and living all at once. Rather than just one figure.

However the previous government did want people on lower incomes to have fewer kids and cost less in benefits and at same time cost of living increased and wages stagnated - so people do respond by having fewer kids.

It was predictable and in fact was predicted by some - and the current government clearly doesn't see it as an issue yet and hasn't made changes - so it is where we are - the consequences will be as I said earlier later retirement (with knock on effects) and more immigration to fill jobs we won't have people for.

We can't bloody afford them.

House prices + childcare costs. I'd have loved a second child, can't afford it, so I won't.

I am aware that plenty of people would have forged ahead anyway..

Immigration is only going to keep increasing. Particularly while there's wars and eventually climate crisis displacing people.

Many counties are going to need to rely on immigration - and we may have to compete with them for workers as well as not lose our own trained young people to other countries offering higher standards of living.

That doesn't look like it will be a problem for a while but it's something you'd hope someone in government was keeping a eye on for long term planning.

We already rely on immigration. 1 million people come in every year on various visas. The country wouldn't function if we had a net zero approach to immigration. But it's a ponzi scheme ultimately because they get old as well.

@OptimismvsRealism Being childfree is definitely a valid and often positive choice.

I’m taken aback at your description of how adult children treat their parents though:

They leave and call you once a year to ask for money
-They put you in a home and you cry for your husband who died many years ago
-you die

Is that how you treat your parents?!

They do quickly pick up on UK fertility rates ( as they face similar costs ) does mean a slump in population not a cliff - like Japan or other low immigration nations are facing - so we muddle along for longer with aging population importing workers and other tweaks.

However if we suddenly look unappealing to large number of immigrants then we'd already be in trouble and as more countries face same situation needing immigration we may well get fewer than we need.

The poor bashing has started. "Breeding like rabbits".