UK fertility rate drops by 18.8% in 12 years

[MidnightPatrol]

The UK has the fastest falling fertility rate in the G7.

2022 saw the lowest number of births for 20 years.

The current TFR is 1.49 births per woman.

What do you think the reason for this is, and what could be done to reverse the trend?

news.sky.com/story/amp/britains-fertility-rate-falling-faster-than-any-other-g7-country-with-austerity-thought-to-be-a-principal-factor-13232314

I don't really think it is just about being educated, I'm educated to Masters degree level/postgraduate as are many of my friends and siblings and sibling in laws but we all have teenagers now as had them in the 00s or early 10s. I am therefore not convinced of the argument that highly educated women equates to rejecting the lowly status of motherhood, is the whole picture. Equally, a PP stated young people have more choice but do they, in what way do they as it is certainly not the case when choosing where to live as they are priced out of many areas, they are having to settle with living parents way beyond the young adult years, a prospect that my friends and I didn't have to contemplate.! I think this just overlooks the fundamental problem which is 'money' and affordability. Where I live the fertility rate is well below the national average and the number of births has fallen by 30% since 2014. It seems a bit of a coincidence that it is now one of the most expensive parts of the country to live in. I don't think it is helpful to just state 'education' and imply motherhood is beneath you as some people do want children and they want to address the issues around that in this country.

But is has been proven that increased education of women correlates with faking birth rates. Why that is is probably more complex than educated women “rejecting the lowly status of mother” but what is clear is that as female autonomy and education grows, birth rates fall.

This is the point I'm trying to make. The demographics of my area have completely changed so it was a big family area in it's hey day and then families were priced out and lots of young house sharers now- we are one of two families on our road that is near a station where the trains go to London and in both our cases the children are teenagers. We have the infant/junior school system and infant schools are closing as the classes are half empty with current intake and projected.

It's a statistical fact that the more educated women are, the fewer children they have.

"it's the best thing I ever did"

I believe you.

Haven't RTFT so perhaps somebody has already mentioned it, but presumably the growing prevalence of fertility problems is also contributing to this. I know so many healthy youngish (early thirties) people, male and female, who have really struggled to concieve. Sometimes IVF has helped and sometimes it hasn't - and as the NHS only pays for limited cycles of IVF and it's very expensive, many of them can't afford to have many cycles.

The reasons for female infertility are well-documented, but male infertility is less talked about. However, sperm counts are currently declining by around 2.6% per year, and there is fewer things that can be done to help.

I'm not arguing that it isn't a factor, especially at a global level but it isn't just that in the UK, it is covering up economic factors caused by wealth inequalities that aren't being addressed. Housing is a huge problem, if you are a professional paying over more than a third of your monthly salary on rent as is the case in my city, how can you possibly throw in the cost of a baby. It is completely changing the culture and tone of the city and not for the better IMO.

The quality of available partners...

Some people do actually enjoy being a parent, I'm unsure why it would be so hard to understand.

I’m one of 4 kids, and I’m the only one who has had DC of my own (two).

Brother 1 (45) never really wanted them, ended up marrying someone who already had a child, they thought about having one together but she’s now infertile because of endo, they’re not too bothered as they like their lifestyle as it is.

Brother 2 (39) very shy and socially awkward, only ever had one gf and that was years ago, he seems to prefer cars and cats.

Brother 3 (32) was always very clear that he never wanted children and is now in a LTR with a 45 year old woman who has grown up children, so can’t see it happening.

So if you think that if you go by the old 2.4 children theory, there would have been 8 or 9 children in my family, and there’s just 2.

I think waiting until later in life is the main factor. Not only because of increased likelihood of fertility problems and less time for more than 1-2 pregnancies.. but also because it seems to me that the longer you've been childfree for, the greater amount of comfort and self-indulgence you've built up in your life. And that is hard to comprise or let go of.
If you have children in your early twenties you probably haven't had the income yet to get so comfortable and so used to lifes luxuries. So the going without and sacrifice perhaps doesn't seem so hard.

Yes but private pensions don't solve the demographic problem. They will also collapse. Plus the basic retirement age will continue to increase.

Surely parenthood looking zero fun compared to all the other options is the main factor.

I would agree it often doesn't look very fun.

And women get to 30 and have great lives of freedom and comfort and intellectual stimulation and putting blocks in holes over and over an over again just doesn't seem like the way to go.

Women have more choices.
Medicine is better as well.

The ability to have something to inherit to further improve life chances to some degree.

Because of those 3 things, people don't have 5+ kids like the olden days with an expectation of low survival.

They are leaning into 1 child families with the expectation of pouring everything into that child.

Quality of life. Not just money but time.

Many adults never got on with their siblings and don't feel the need to risk a similar thing happening.

Haven’t managed to read the whole thread, but can anyone explain why, if there’s such a drop in the birthrate, maternity services are overwhelmed?

Lots of reasons already mentioned
Cost of living
Cost of childcare
The UK generally being quite a hostile place for children

One thing I haven't seen mentioned (might have missed it tbf) is the very negative portrayal of motherhood. I'm 30 this year and for the past decade all I've seen on TV and heard about online and in oerson is how horrible it is to be pregnant, give birth, have babies, have toddlers etc. Only ever about the negatives. For a long time I didnt want kids as I figured yeah doesn't sound great, I think I'll pass probably. My partner really did though so I reexamined and we had one last year and what I've been most surprised by is the joy of it. I've never been happier than when I'm with him.
With a different partner I'd likely never had one. I can't imagine I'm the only one that was influenced by this.

I'd love another or two more but we can't afford it. Maybe one more in a few years.

The birthrate is below replacement level everywhere except sub-Saharan Africa, suggesting that it doesn't matter how much money is thrown at women, they're not budging. There isn't a government on Earth that's managed to get the birthrate above replacement level with money alone, and some countries have extremely generous policies.

It's not clear to me whether the issue is that the number of women having babies is the same but they're having fewer of them, or whether the number of women having babies is dropping and/or those that are having them are having fewer. I think that we do need to know this before we start throwing money at the problem. If men being useless is the problem, then money won't fix that. I don't know what will fix that, either, to be fair.

I can't have kids so no amount of financial incentive will work, but if I could, no amount of financial incentive would induce me to have a child as I just don't want one.

I'm not arguing with you but it is worth adding that 2.1 replacement level is unlikely to be the same across the board.

For example, in developed countries that may be the case but a birth rate of 2.1 in areas of lower survival e.g. Africa, its less likely due to less healthcare availability.

I would love to have had more kids - but no money!

I wish they wouldn't day the 'fertility' rate when people may well be fertile but choosing not to reproduce, for variety of reasons. 😬

Being a parent is not just putting blocks in holes. In fact the reward of being a parent is nothing to do with the performance of functional tasks by your toddler, for a start they aren't playing with blocks for a very long time, I am at the discussing politics stage with my eldest and believe me, he is much better informed and read up on the subject than probably 80% of the voting population. You don't have kids if you see growing up as a developmental stage tick box as that would just be a child without love. Having children suits me and my personality as I enjoy reading and I loved fostering that love of reading with them. I have a family that loves music and play instruments so the freedom to share that love with your offspring and putting on performances and plays was something I loved doing but obviously it isn't for everyone. I have a fairly straight job in privacy and IT so it is the contrast that I enjoyed/enjoy.

As long as we are prepared to axe the old age pension at some point, it’s not a bad thing. There will be more old people and far fewer workers eventually though so don’t expect those workers to be able to support the entire state as it currently stands. You will be more on your own but that’s fine by me as I’ve saved for my own pension.

I think many posters are talking about the general decline happen every where but Sub-Saharan Africa- and not 18.8 % drop in 12 years in UK.

Sky News :UK's fertility rate falling faster than any other G7 nation - with austerity thought to be 'principal factor'

CPP research also found that areas with higher deprivation saw faster falls in rates which "demonstrates the impact of government cuts to social security spending that occurred over that time".
Mr Franklin said that in previous decades falls in fertility rates have been about having "more educated, higher income women".

"This fall since 2010, and since austerity has happened, principally affected the poorer parts of the country."

12 years ago we'd had our kids - I had a master DH had a PhD - we could only afford to do it because we live in affordable pockets in UK and did longer commutes to work. Those pockets have dried up/got more expensive as many on our income did similar - I got priced out of where I grew up - and have in turn contributed to rising prices where I am now.

So while I image (haven't checked) women education levels may have gone up slightly in past 12 years I do know house prices and rents have gone up massively in that time span.

London is emptying out due to costs.

https://www.standard.co.uk/news/education/london-school-closures-falling-pupil-numbers-families-councils-b1135224.html

So totally get what you are saying yes generally rising female education levels do cause a decline in fertility but I don't think it's explaining the 18.8% drop in fertility in last 12 years in UK