Yeah, I hear you. I do peer support and I deal with that, too. LAs are increasingly brutal because of funding and expect primaries to cope with kids who need intensive and complex need support.
But with kids like mine, they mask and primaries genuinely don't see the needs. The damage really starts to show in secondary. I did with my second because my first was so harmed, so I got ed psych, SLT and OT, all of which identified very, very high needs. I was lucky and this was before Covid, and the LA worked with me to get the support in place to avoid the later high needs. She remains, for now at least, mainstream suitable, albeit independent. And as I say, I am not affected by this policy because her EHCP funds it all, so the exemption is already automatic for the LA.
I agree it won't mean flooded state schools. With my eldest, we "electively" (ha!) home educated for a couple of years, then had the assessments that found massive needs and then the EHCP was put in place. Home ed's what a lot of people do, and if they can't afford independent, I suspect the SEN kids similar to mine will see parents leave work to provide that. Again, I know a fair few. Costs of failing SEN kids are a lot wider than most appreciate.
We need a better model of school though. Designing them for the most robustly neurotypical, and then being surprised that they don't work for all and harm many, is just not workable. It costs the state way more down the track, quite apart from the human cost.
I am neutral on VAT for independents, as long as the exemption for SEN is stronger. I don't think it's a massive issue I will lose sleep on, given the state of education more widely, but at the same time I doubt it will raise much and it does seem red meat for the base as much as anything. But what does worry me is the way state education has been allowed to basically fall apart for so long, only a massive focus on improvement will change much - and where the money is to come from with the hit of Brexit and Covid, god only knows.