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Original poster

General Election Polling - completely off

598 replies

Rusty101 · 03/07/2024 02:45

Just been looking at the polling for mine and 2 neighbouring seats and I really do think it is way off the mark. I know the demographic pretty well and the prediction of Labour wiping out these conservative seats doesn’t really seem likely. It’s the shy Tory syndrome where people don’t want to admit that they will be voting for them. Anyone else feel the same when looking at the polling in their area?

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/newseatlookup.html

OP posts:
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9
justasking111 · 03/07/2024 10:09

I'm wondering how high the turnout will be. And no I don't worry about polls.

RufustheFactualReindeer · 03/07/2024 10:09

Have all those people saying "my seat is true blue, been Tory for decades" forgotten about the red wall in 2019

no, but even that website says conservative will win

mitogoshi · 03/07/2024 10:10

@GrantShappsOtherUserName

We are semi rural to, there are tractors with vote labour on their windows, never seen anything like it. Conservator since 1950 but nobody likes the mp and interestingly he didn't mention the conservatives on his campaign leaflet just that he lives in constituency and the labour candidate doesn't (yet, saw him viewing 4 door down from me which is for sale)

Isitsixoclockalready · 03/07/2024 10:11

iamtheblcksheep · 03/07/2024 07:38

One of the Suffolk seats. It’s the same across all of Anglia. Labour have no chance but keep peddling that propaganda wheel that there’s going to be a conservative wipeout. It’s keeping me greatly entertained.

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It's the Tories that are doing that. Labour haven't been complacent at all.

verdantverdure · 03/07/2024 10:11

WhereIsTheHare · 03/07/2024 06:19

Many, many more people are reportedly going to vote tactically this time, to remove Tory MPs - reportedly huge percentages than was the norm previously. The tactical voting website Carol Vorderman is involved with has had over 2 million hits as of yesterday, and there are several other tactical voting sites available. I think this will have a much bigger effect than in previous GEs.

One of Tuen's had 4 million hits. It might be the Best for Britain one if it's not Stop The Tories.

mickeymoist · 03/07/2024 10:12

I am in a new constituency (sort of) Bicester and Woodstock. near Oxford. Part of it was Layla Maran, millions of LibDem and two contentious local issues.

I think it will be between LD and Conservative.

Nicelynicelyjohnson · 03/07/2024 10:13

noblegiraffe · 03/07/2024 10:03

“Gloucestershire

Cheltenham
Current Holder: Conservatives
Majority: 1,421, 2.5%
Prediction: Safe LD
A slightly smaller version of the old seat, this should be one of the easier Lib Dem gains of the night in a seat they held from 1992-2015. It’s currently held by Alex Chalk, the justice secretary, which is a shame as he’s one of the better cabinet ministers. He’s a barrister who, amongst other high profile cases, represented journalists during the phone hacking scandal. His replacement will be Max Wilkinson, a councillor and local journalist, very much in the classic Lib Dem candidate mould.”

North Cotswolds
Current Holder: Conservative
Majority: 20,997, 41.5%
Prediction: Likely Conservative
The old Cotswolds seat has been split in two. This half has a quarter of Tewkesbury and a chunk of Stroud added in. It’s another one of those seats with a split opposition and a big enough majority that the Tories should be able to hold it. Though the veteran MP, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, did once come out worst in a survey of constituents asking about the level of support they got from their MP. He’s been there since 1992, and has always been a backbencher – an “old right” eurosceptic.

South Cotswolds
Current Holder: Conservative
Majority: 16,092, 30.5%
Prediction: Lean LD
This is the other half of the old Cotswolds seat with half of North Wiltshire added in. And of the two seats this is the one the Lib Dems are targeting, given they are a clearer second place here and hold many of the wards at council level. It’s one of their longer shot targets but, depending on tactical voting and the Reform vote, they might just sneak it. The MP is another right-wing veteran backbencher, James Gray, who was a SPAD to Michael Howard and John Gummer during the Major government and won the North Wiltshire seat in 1997. His opponent is one of the cooler Lib Dems standing this time – Roz Savage, who gave up life as a management consultant to become an adventurer – becoming the first woman to row all of the Atlantic, Pacific and Indian oceans solo. She’s also a very good marathon runner and an environmental campaigner.

Tewkesbury
Current Holder: Conservative
Majority: 19,443, 36%
Prediction: Likely Conservative
Three quarters of the old constituency plus wards from Cheltenham and Gloucester, this is another seat the Tories will probably hold due to a split opposition, meaning it’s not being targeted by either party. The beneficiary here would be Laurence Robertson, yet another veteran eurosceptic (lots of them in the south west) whose held the seat since 1997. This is someone who was campaigning for John Redwood to be leader back in 1995.”

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Thanks for this and not far off what I said - despite electoral calculus being much more bullish for Lib Dem.
I have friends in Cheltenham and Alex Chalk is well liked by both sides - I think he might keep his seat by nature of who he is despite the polls.
I have a track record of being quite wrong though!

BloodyHellKenAgain · 03/07/2024 10:14

HelenaWaiting · 03/07/2024 08:27

Not really. I covered the issue of very small majorities. With a majority of, say, 30, a government could pass laws unopposed. If that majority was 200, the position would be exactly the same. Objectively, therefore, "supermajority" is meaningless.

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I agree super majority is a pretty meaningless term. We tend to call it a landslide in the UK.

However, I stand by what I said. If you have a small majority you may have to rely on cross party support, if you have a large majority you don't. Unless your MPs revolt, but that's a whole other issue.

noblegiraffe · 03/07/2024 10:14

Peccary · 03/07/2024 10:04

I'd be interested to see this for High Peak

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You have the Labour for Largan fraudster! Grin

High Peak
Current Holder: Conservative
Majority: 590, 1%
Prediction: Safe Labour
Another unchanged seat, and Labour’s easiest gain in Derbyshire. They won it in 2017 and then Robert Largan won it back last time by a few hundred votes. He’s been running a valiant campaign trying to encourage other parties’ supporters to back him using their party colours. But it won’t save him. Labour’s candidate is Jon Pearce, an employment lawyer and a specialist in equality and discrimination law.

verdantverdure · 03/07/2024 10:15

iamtheblcksheep · 03/07/2024 07:03

Labour are predicted to take my seat. There’s honestly more chance of hell freezing over. I don’t know a single person voting labour.

Friday is going to be amusing on here

Want to say which one?

BIossomtoes · 03/07/2024 10:15

Aubaslice · 03/07/2024 10:03

What dangerous policies are you afraid they may enact?

Cameron didn't have a huge majority but inflicted enormous economic damage on this country in both his terms as PM and one of those was in a coalition government.

I do find this country a strange place. We've gone through 14 years of utter devastation and the gutting of almost every area of public service, ramped up national debt and left people significantly poorer and more miserable and angry. And yet... people are still terrified by what Labour may or may not do.

People are desperate for change but when it's offered they say it's too radical. IMO, England is going to be locked in decline for a long time because the electorate wants conflicting things: better public services but less taxes; lower immigration but cheaper services and stronger care and health sectors etc. Until we, the people, start to become realistic in our demands, governments will continually offer unworkable policies and promise nonsense like Brexit as the elixir to all our ills.

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Completely agree, they want Schrodinger's government.

VoteOutToHelpOut · 03/07/2024 10:16

.

General Election Polling - completely off
SnapdragonToadflax · 03/07/2024 10:17

Rather than looking at polls - which I agree can be very misleading - I would look at the bookies. They rarely get it wrong.

I don't think it will be the huge Labour landslide being touted, and I wonder if that's being talked up so the Tories can say Labour did badly even when they win.

I think Reform will, sadly, do very well, especially in poorer areas. Hopefully Farage will get bored with being an MP quickly and fuck off back to Trump.

BezMills · 03/07/2024 10:18

I really want to believe polls showing that the incumbent tory loses to Labour and in the next-door seat we get green. This is a place where the gambling money would probably go on Reform or the UKIPs before Labour or Green. We dare to hope, but honestly it's a bit of a stretch to believe the polls.

Isitsixoclockalready · 03/07/2024 10:19

SnapdragonToadflax · 03/07/2024 10:17

Rather than looking at polls - which I agree can be very misleading - I would look at the bookies. They rarely get it wrong.

I don't think it will be the huge Labour landslide being touted, and I wonder if that's being talked up so the Tories can say Labour did badly even when they win.

I think Reform will, sadly, do very well, especially in poorer areas. Hopefully Farage will get bored with being an MP quickly and fuck off back to Trump.

For sure, this 'landslide' talk is all on the part of the Tories.

BlueLimeRun · 03/07/2024 10:19

I know a lot of people who would vote labour but have decided not to mainly because of stance on women’s rights.
Plus their obvious irritation and dismissal when questioned about this.

BIossomtoes · 03/07/2024 10:21

BlueLimeRun · 03/07/2024 10:19

I know a lot of people who would vote labour but have decided not to mainly because of stance on women’s rights.
Plus their obvious irritation and dismissal when questioned about this.

I don’t know any. Everyone I know is sufficiently intelligent to recognise the culture wars as the Tory ploy it is and they’re not falling for it.

AnonymousBleep · 03/07/2024 10:24

BIossomtoes · 03/07/2024 10:21

I don’t know any. Everyone I know is sufficiently intelligent to recognise the culture wars as the Tory ploy it is and they’re not falling for it.

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Same here. Just as we're all sufficiently intelligent to spot Tory HQ when they're all over these boards.

BlueLimeRun · 03/07/2024 10:25

BIossomtoes · 03/07/2024 10:21

I don’t know any. Everyone I know is sufficiently intelligent to recognise the culture wars as the Tory ploy it is and they’re not falling for it.

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No need to be so rude and patronising.

Labour have communicated badly on this - that’s on them.

Viviennemary · 03/07/2024 10:25

I can't see a lot of difference between a landslide and comfortable victory. Except I suppose if Labour gets more seats than all the other parties put together then there will be no stopping them. I hope the SNP don't do well. they've been terrible.

RufustheFactualReindeer · 03/07/2024 10:26

cardibach · 03/07/2024 09:57

It why do you think they won't say it to a pollster? They won't get 'abuse' then. They won't even know the person. What reason is there to lie in a poll?

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I was referring to this specific quote If you are a shy tory stand up and say what it is they've to be proud of for the past 14 years. Pathetic party, hopeless leadership, ignorant supporters which was suggesting to me that the poster was requesting people on here to stand up

i was more than likely wrong about that but my point still stands for this forum

no idea why people lie to pollsters….🤷🏻

Iwasafool · 03/07/2024 10:27

We have a boundary change, been a Conservative constituency forever. I would vote Labour by choice but going to vote LibDem as they have the best chance of beating the Conservatives. I live in hope.

Wheresthebeach · 03/07/2024 10:27

I hope it's closer than the polls are saying and that the issue of Women's Rights is shown to have had an impact with left leaning women voters not supporting Labour. We need a change, but I'm not keen on a massive majority.

BlueLimeRun · 03/07/2024 10:27

AnonymousBleep · 03/07/2024 10:24

Same here. Just as we're all sufficiently intelligent to spot Tory HQ when they're all over these boards.

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People can have a different opinion and not be Tory HQ of course.

xxSideshowAuntSallyxx · 03/07/2024 10:28

Yes they say my area is going to Labour, it has never ever been Labour. It is one of those seats you could put a donkey out for the Tories and they'd get in. Our MP is actually pretty good and I'd be sad to see him lose his seat.

I've known two Labour candidates in the past, both local and they didn't get in. Even during Tony Blair's landslide.I don't see it happening.

But I'm actually quite nervous/worried about what's about to happen for the first time in my voting life.