Page 5 | If Labour get in, will house prices fall?

swimlyn · 20/05/2024 11:14

FancyBiscuitsLevel · 19/05/2024 07:30

@Democracymanifest - first homes are being bigger because that’s what people need by the time they are buying - a 1 bed flat in our town costs around £240k, but most young people need to save for several years for a deposit, and need to be established in careers to be earning enough to get a mortgage for that much. Most couples by the time they are in a position to buy have hit the late 20s/early 30s - so baby life stage. Given affordability checks for mortgages will take out nursery fees, you can’t as a couple assume you can buy a flat for now, then be able to borrow enough to upgrade in 4/5 years time.

stamp duty is so much now it’s not logical to buy a flat you know you’ll outgrow in a couple of years, compared to stretching yourself for the house now. And for anyone in their 20s, their life experience has shown that house prices just go up, drops are only for a couple of months max, so the difference between flats and houses grows faster than savings.

buying the 20 year house at 30 rather than the 5 year flat then the 15 year house at 24&29 makes logical sense- and few are in the position to buy flats in early 20s.

The housing ladder doesn’t exist for younger people. I’m in my 40s and I know very few who have done the traditional route of - buying a flat young, paying down the mortgage, using the equity to buy a small house, paying that mortgage down, buying a big house just before kids are teens.

An excellent summary of ‘best practice’ nowadays. Thanks.

I’m so glad this pain is all behind us.

Just arthritis to deal with now…

Hereyoume · 20/05/2024 11:21

DontCheetoTheCheetah · 18/05/2024 09:49

I guess my logic was they could bring in rent controls and AirBnb/BTL legislation, or threaten to do so, which would lead to people selling up

🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

You think house prices will fall if the tiny percentage of them which are rented are suddenly sold!

Rentals are a business, if you cap the profit, you kill the market.

The o ly thing that will drive down house prices is if we build over a million of them a year, every year, for the next decade. And then only if the population doesn't increase.

JJathome · 20/05/2024 11:22

The opposite I suspect. There will be panic in rhe markets, ultimately leading to constriction of demand till it settles down and prices rising.

DdraigGoch · 20/05/2024 11:38

Rent controls have failed spectacularly everywhere they have been tried.

Regulating AirBnBs and taxing second homes may improve matters locally in places like St Ives or Abersoch but it won't reduce prices nationally.

wombat15 · 20/05/2024 17:18

DdraigGoch · 20/05/2024 11:38

Rent controls have failed spectacularly everywhere they have been tried.

Regulating AirBnBs and taxing second homes may improve matters locally in places like St Ives or Abersoch but it won't reduce prices nationally.

Regulating Airbnb will reduce prices in quite a lot of places.

DdraigGoch · 20/05/2024 23:35

wombat15 · 20/05/2024 17:18

Regulating Airbnb will reduce prices in quite a lot of places.

Edited

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Places like Edinburgh, yes. The Home Counties commuter belt on the other hand has inflated for different reasons.

Porridgewithhoneyandbannana · 21/05/2024 02:00

House prices rose massively between about 1998 to the peak of 2008 when they went down by the recession caused by the banks. Labour were in power 1997 to 2010.

Needanewname42 · 21/05/2024 02:25

FancyBiscuitsLevel · 19/05/2024 07:30

@Democracymanifest - first homes are being bigger because that’s what people need by the time they are buying - a 1 bed flat in our town costs around £240k, but most young people need to save for several years for a deposit, and need to be established in careers to be earning enough to get a mortgage for that much. Most couples by the time they are in a position to buy have hit the late 20s/early 30s - so baby life stage. Given affordability checks for mortgages will take out nursery fees, you can’t as a couple assume you can buy a flat for now, then be able to borrow enough to upgrade in 4/5 years time.

stamp duty is so much now it’s not logical to buy a flat you know you’ll outgrow in a couple of years, compared to stretching yourself for the house now. And for anyone in their 20s, their life experience has shown that house prices just go up, drops are only for a couple of months max, so the difference between flats and houses grows faster than savings.

buying the 20 year house at 30 rather than the 5 year flat then the 15 year house at 24&29 makes logical sense- and few are in the position to buy flats in early 20s.

The housing ladder doesn’t exist for younger people. I’m in my 40s and I know very few who have done the traditional route of - buying a flat young, paying down the mortgage, using the equity to buy a small house, paying that mortgage down, buying a big house just before kids are teens.

The only thing you missed is the cost of moving.
So much money goes on stamp duty and legal bills that it puts people off moving. You can easily spend £10k moving house so people would rather avoid that if they can.

TheHateIsNotGood · 21/05/2024 02:33

Nope, as the 1st pp on this thread stated "why would they"? I was homeless with a toddler dc during the last Labour govt, nearly 20 years later I remember those times with horror.

Unless Labour get radical - eg: compulsory purchas all land-banked private developer-owned land and build 100% social homes to rent (built with Public Loan Board money - we';re all fucked and doomed

BlueJamSandwich · 21/05/2024 03:51

Bumblebee907 · 18/05/2024 09:50

I'm not sure they would do this, this would lead to a massive shortage of rental properties, and it's not as simple as people who rent just suddenly being able to buy.

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Actually, it would lead to the opposite and increase the number of long term rental properties. Having a similar, but bigger, effect to areas which massively increased council tax for holiday homes.

CharSiu · 21/05/2024 08:54

@Democracymanifest single occupancy of homes has risen and it’s at around 30% and has doubled since the 1970’s. It’s a huge factor overlooked. In my row of eight identical big three bed semi detached houses with big gardens and a drive each. Three are occupied by a single person and at one point five were occupied by a single person. I have two friends divorcing currently, that’s two households now requiring four houses all of a sudden.

wombat15 · 21/05/2024 13:02

DdraigGoch · 20/05/2024 23:35

Places like Edinburgh, yes. The Home Counties commuter belt on the other hand has inflated for different reasons.

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Obviously it wouldn't help The Home Counties commuter belt but not everyone lives there. It would help plenty of places in UK with expensive rental properties compared with the average salary.