If Labour get in, will house prices fall?

[DontCheetoTheCheetah]

Well will they?

Quite frankly we’d only see house prices coming down significantly if we had significantly higher interest rates and the associated repossessions.

Times are not hard yet, still record numbers of people eating out, flying off on foreign holidays and buying iphones. None of which people in their 20s used to be able to afford. When labour get in they do their usual trick of giving lots of money to everyone and fuel house price increases.

The current flat(ish) market of the past couple of years is pretty much a nominal price reduction playing out as it has happened at the same time as the general rise in inflation and all the massive pay-rises so many have been getting. i.e. in real-terms houses have been getting cheaper compared to energy/food/core-services. You are in the middle of your House Price Crash right now.

House prices will rise over the coming years. 20 years ago we couldn’t buy a better house in the part of the country we wanted so we had to relocate to another part of the country to get a bigger house.

It’s never been easy, when I was young (mid 80s) a sibling had a wife and small child, all living in a tiny 1 bed flat as that is all they could afford. My first NHS salary after college was £6k a year.

For the record when I bought my first house (1980s) it was a 2 bed terrace and cost 4 times the starting salary of an NHS RGN staff nurse. We had no furniture except a bed. That same house still costs the same as 4 times the starting salary of a staff nurse. This illustrates that not all areas of the country have housing that is more expensive than it was 40 years ago.

They just aren't building enough bungalows or smaller houses, I'm afraid, and when they do, they often cost far more than a larger house with more rooms!

It's the well-known 'single person penalty' that politicians ignore - and nobody wants to recognise that society has changed.

Just because you're 'on your own' doesn't mean that we want (or should settle for) a flat or apartment. Builders and politicians don't seem to realise this.

Yes, we need more homes. But we also need choices beyond the standard two adults and two kids model that builders and politicians think is the norm.

Times are not hard yet, still record numbers of people eating out, flying off on foreign holidays and buying iphones. None of which people in their 20s used to be able to afford.

Todays 20 somethings spend more on housing than previous generations. Eating out & iPhones are new but previous generations spend money on pubs, drinking & smoking.

The current flat(ish) market of the past couple of years is pretty much a nominal price reduction playing out as it has happened at the same time as the general rise in inflation and all the massive pay-rises so many have been getting. i.e. in real-terms houses have been getting cheaper compared to energy/food/core-services. You are in the middle of your House Price Crash right now.

who has massive pay rises? Not the majority & plenty of people are yet to come off fixes but I agree it’s playing out now.

Yes, we need more homes. But we also need choices beyond the standard two adults and two kids model that builders and politicians think is the norm.

Thats a good point as we don’t have enough suitable housing for the ageing population.

This is true. Even under the Tories, net social spending is actually higher in the UK than it is in Sweden. Sweden is just more sensible when it comes to spending (healthcare isn't completely free, you can't claim unemployment benefit if you haven't worked etc) which means better services overall.

I can't see Labour being any less wasteful with our money than the Tories tbh.

It’s not that simple. With first time buyer stamp duty exemption, people buying homes later in life (ie. Late 20s early 30s) and shortly after would be trying for a family - which causes your affordability to be screwed due to high childcare costs. It’s basically you buy a 2/3 bed or you just don’t bother and have to wait until the kids are in primary school and then you need to buy a 2/3 bed anyway.

Perhaps people need to manage their expectations then? If flats are all we have space for and a house is too much to manage as an older person then a flat is where you downsize to.

Yes, this is the issue. We need to Tax wealth rather income, but even Labour have said that they won't do this.

As a result there is huge generational inequality which is likely to remain.

I do think future governments are going to tap into the boomer wealth though more so because the country needs ££££ spent on a myriad of things. It will probably be by stealth eg the NHS hip operation has a 2 yr waiting list or there aren’t any council founded carers to come to your home etc. I know 3 older people who have gone private for OPs because the wait is too long & some relatives have spent 80k on private carers as they wanted to stay in their home.

As a result there is huge generational inequality which is likely to remain.

and it contributes to our low productivity. Work should pay

I suspect they will go up a fair bit in my area as it is a grammar area. The VAT on privates is going to keep demand high here - currently around the £700k mark for a 3 bed.

Some people might not be able to manage, and so that is a fair point for those people. But most over 55's can look after ourselves just fine, thankyou!

But there are a lot of single people who'd like to have the same comforts as families, and why shouldn't we?

After all, the 'single penalty' means that we contribute a higher proportion per person in tax, spending, etc. to society than a couple with kids.

This^

Since Blair, British politics has basically just been a game of the two main parties thieving one another’s more popular policies - or at least what is popular with the clueless electorate in any given year - regardless of whether it’s in the in short term interest of the country (never mind long term interest).

Starmer is just one of those “I think I’d be rather good at it“ types - like Cameron, Johnson and Blair. He doesn’t believe in anything beyond poll numbers. This type would even knowingly enact bad policy if it was popular.

They have no plans to stop visas and general levels of migration.
House prices will continue to go up until the demand stops.

The only thing that will stop prices rising is for people to stop paying. I've recently heard that some landlords in Bristol are having to cut prices for rentals as there's nobody who can afford the ridiculously high amounts being asked. Not because there's noone wanting to rent just noone who can afford it. Prices are only second to London but there's no Bristol weighting

Perhaps people need to manage their expectations then? If flats are all we have space for and a house is too much to manage as an older person then a flat is where you downsize to.

In my family they were all looking just before or just after retirement - they paid houses off - had money in savings and pensions and were fit and well but were considering longer term needs that might arise. They weren't being forced to move but trying to plan for future needs.

Moving comes with costs - risks of property having problems - and is a lot of stress and hassle under current system. If they'd been properties that tempted them expect they'd have all downsized - as there were not you end up with 2 or 1 person in 3/4 bed houses.

Then by mid 70 even if there current properties drawbacks start to hit as health declines they don't want hassle or expense of moving - will tend to dig in plus often cheaper to fit things like stair lifts or showers with seats than move.

So it'd often 10-30 years of under occupancy in private owned houses - because we don't build houses that appeal to potential downsizers.

Another issue with flats - lack of gardens and outdoor space but also service fees which can suddenly jump up - last thing on fixed income and set amount of saving you want in sudden increase in costs or lumps sums for work to be demanded. I think there are issue with service fee and amount they can go up ie few current limits - I'd always prefer outright ownership of land and accommodation. Also adaptations for aging like handles at doors harder to get put in if you have communal areas - also stairs as age or being in ground floor and easier for breakings.

As ever more people can't get on housing ladder and end up renting during retirement years unless we increase HA housing to accommodate I think private under occupancy will be a lesser issue.

A bit like the current shower then (enacting bad policy like the carers allowance repayments as just one example?). I think we've all seen enough of Rushi shoving things through to pander to the minority poll numbers.

This is nonsense - you are rewriting history.

House prices have risen far faster than wages.

Also rent has risen far faster than wages, making it harder to save for a deposit.

No they won’t. Not unless you want a monumental recession and people unable to remortgage their homes.

If what you are selling drops, what you are buying drops, so not really much different to where you are now, with buying/selling. If trying to get on the property ladder, prices ‘may’ drop, but it’s highly unlikely to be hugely significant.

The UK will be stale for a VERY long time now due to damage done by all of the mismanagement.

You’d need three or four terms of socialism to begin to turn the corner. That's unlikely, as Wannabe Fatcats will continue to vote Tory to desperately try and ‘make it’ in life. Recent history shows that that concept doesn’t work.

Watch the upcoming PPBs and see who focuses on money money money…

The UK Is not currently in a recession.

@Democracymanifest - first homes are being bigger because that’s what people need by the time they are buying - a 1 bed flat in our town costs around £240k, but most young people need to save for several years for a deposit, and need to be established in careers to be earning enough to get a mortgage for that much. Most couples by the time they are in a position to buy have hit the late 20s/early 30s - so baby life stage. Given affordability checks for mortgages will take out nursery fees, you can’t as a couple assume you can buy a flat for now, then be able to borrow enough to upgrade in 4/5 years time.

stamp duty is so much now it’s not logical to buy a flat you know you’ll outgrow in a couple of years, compared to stretching yourself for the house now. And for anyone in their 20s, their life experience has shown that house prices just go up, drops are only for a couple of months max, so the difference between flats and houses grows faster than savings.

buying the 20 year house at 30 rather than the 5 year flat then the 15 year house at 24&29 makes logical sense- and few are in the position to buy flats in early 20s.

The housing ladder doesn’t exist for younger people. I’m in my 40s and I know very few who have done the traditional route of - buying a flat young, paying down the mortgage, using the equity to buy a small house, paying that mortgage down, buying a big house just before kids are teens.

If it makes you feel any better, housing is a massive issue in the Netherlands and Ireland as well. It’s not just a UK thing.

Agree entirely re: broken home construction model.