To think good school places will be even harder to find next year because of the VAT on school fees

[Nesca1]

We are are looking at secondary schools for DS. We have our eye on a decent school bang in the middle of a solid middle class area . The school is always over subscribed; this year we would have gotten a place but last year we would have missed out because of how far we are from the school.
Usually, the school offers places to children living 1600m away, last year it was 1400m due to a large number of sibling applications.

Due to the whole VAT issue, i think more parents from the local area are going to be sending their kids to this school, rather than sending them to private schools.

Is this a reasonable assumption? I don't think parents will wait for the policy to be enacted, but they will move their year 6 children into this school.

The people who will be hardest hit will be those in Grammar school areas. House prices will increase, demand for housing will increase, green spaces will decrease, school spaces will decrease.

@DontSetYourselfOnFireToKeepOthersWarm

Complete nonsense. My DD15 is in private school because state sector provision for SEN is terrible.

Fix the shit state education for ND kids before bringing such stupid suggestions.

You do realise treating everyone the same is sometimes the most unfair thing to do.

Perhaps we should just get rid of the grammar schools as well, then?

I don't see it as a problem. In my area, the primaries are shrinking rapidly and some are closing. The secondary bulge has already passed. If anything, it'll stop the primaries closing due to the huge drop in birthrate.

@Didimum I t"hink it's simply a difference of opinion. The vast majority of fee-paying parents are not scraping by to afford the fees – most will simply absorb the increase. Many independent schools will also likely either re-address their fees to absorb at least some of the increase and/or increase scholarships, partial scholarships and improve sibling discount rates as they will not want to lose custom."

Can I ask what your basis for this statement is please? At out indie, many parents are just scraping by and the school certainly does not have the headroom in its budget to absorb the 20% without passing it on, nor to increase the bursary / scholarship programme. The 4 local state secondaries are of varying quality and oversubscribed. There will without doubt be an impact on those schools - and no, the indie parents will not have some magic affect of improving those schools by osmosis, nor will the pupils have some tranquilising impact on the less desirable behaviour. Many of them have SEN not met by the state sector hence them being with us in the first place. The policy is a poorly thought out, headline / vote grabbing disaster.

I'd say church congregations are going to be growing exponentially!!

In some areas such as grammar and top comp I agree competition will increase

This is so area dependent. Nobody from our Y6 going private this year, one did the previous year, nobody did the year before that.

In our area I think you’d be making a correct assumption, there will be increased pressure on good state school places as parents opt for state education.

I know a few families who have decided to stay state who would otherwise have switched to private.

I'm not worried, the number of school children in our local area - which is in striking distance of a couple of private schools - are shrinking as each year goes by. The shift is really marked from my older children who were born in surge years.

6.4% of children in England are educated in private schools. Not all will move to state schools with a less than 20% increase in fees (for most, this works out at around £300 a month more to find, although most pay termly).

at most you are looking at a 6.4% increase in demand. For it to be a problem for where you live, they need to live closer to your desired school than you.

so, is there a private school near you that generally caters for families who can barely afford the fees, that will pass all the increased costs onto parents with no flexibility in fees, and where the students mainly live between you and your preferred state school?

to put it into perspective- the government’s failure to cap electricity prices to sensible levels year before last put my annual bills up by more than this will put up fees at most schools. If that didn’t tip over the edge private school parents to all go state, then it’s unlikely most in your town are going to be unable to afford this.

Based on a few things – most of my friends and family privately educate their kids, that's over three east and south east counties. I also know three private school teachers at different schools in different counties.

I don't think there will be a 'magic effect by osmosis', but that doesn't mean I think the re-focus on state education shouldn't happen. Change is always difficult.

We'll have to agree to disagree on the merits of the policy. I don't expect everyone to agree with me and nor should you.

Yes, 2024 is the peak year for the secondary pupil population. The peak for primary has already passed and it will be 500k smaller by 2028; that will then feed through secondary. Next year, there will be about 18,000 fewer new year 7s than are starting this September.

But there are of course regional variations - we were shocked by the catchment sizes for the 24/25 Y7 intake in our outer London borough - every single school (including the outstanding/extremely oversubscribed options) were much bigger than previous years, and it doesn't seem to have had a knock on to surrounding boroughs. But we are probably the next wave after inner London to see the impact of affordability/Brexit/Changed working patterns.

It's going to be more difficult for years to come. We know people with kids in private who are not only in private but also having extra tuition (think years 3 and up) for the 11+. So there will be a grammar impact and a local decent secondary impact. And house prices near primaries will go up. Not everyone but many people do make massive sacrifices. If you've got 2 kids in plus the VAT, it's not affordable. If you live near a large private school (we do), yes I'd be worried.

Driving up the prices of houses near the best state schools and narrowing the catchment,
makes them essentially private by stealth.

Yes also this. This is causing some to reevaluate and think: OK one in grammar and one in private, makes the day to day a PITA but overall it's affordable. That kind of thing.

The VAT should also go on all education. Which includes tuition outside school (extra maths, piano etc?) and nurseries. Oh and Uni fees. Definitely.

It's going to be a big issue here. Lots of independent pre prep and prep schools are already in talks to merge to survive. The village primaries are going to be oversubscribed.

If it's not impacting you, then it won't impact anybody else, right? Nah, there's only like 2 people who will have to pull their child from the school that they worked their ass off to get the fees together for so that they could have an actual decent standard of education. But it doesn't matter because it won't impact you, right? 🙄

That 20% will stop us and most of DS' year from being able to afford it. Private school isn't just for the rich parents, most of the ones I know just want their child to have a decent education - which they certainly can't get in the state sector at the moment!!

The VAT should also go on all education. Which includes tuition outside school (extra maths, piano etc?) and nurseries. Oh and Uni fees. Definitely.

I keep seeing this sentiment on here and, while I can understand your frustration at being singled out, I don't think Labour have even hinted that this is the case, have they?

They have to win the election first.

Having supreme faith in the Labour left's ability to lose when they should win at a walk, I still say a minorty Tory Govt. is a real possibility.

I think it’s a reasonable assumption, yes. Grammar heads are already warning about this problem https://inews.co.uk/news/labour-private-school-tax-wealthy-poorer-children-grammars-2875633

Anecdotally, last year our prep school saw more pupils moving to the state sector at 11 than in previous years, largely because of the threat of VAT. Those pupils have now taken the place of another child who would have otherwise got into those state schools. That is reflected in the catchment area shrinking.

For those who think that the majority of parents at private school have thousands of pounds spare each year are mistaken. Many are already stretching themselves. Increased costs of living, mortgage hikes, big increases in school fees due to inflation etc means that many parents are now at a tipping point and simply can’t afford another 20% hike in fees. It’s not just the VAT which is the issue; it’s the cost of everything else which has increased hugely over the last couple of years.

It will affect some areas more than others. Larger wealthy schools with the bigger fees are likely to be impacted less. It’s the cheaper schools where parents are more likely to switch to the state sector at 11. There’s also the added problem where some private schools will undoubtedly have to close, leading to large numbers of children needing state places.

The state schools which are likely to be more affected are the selective schools and the higher performing schools, as they are the ones private school parents will be most interested in.

I didn't say we sent ours private. But how can this be excluded? I don't see how that works. Especially not for nursery costs which everyone bears and then breathes a sigh of relief when that cost is gone. It's also worrying about SEN.

And surely holiday camps are in scope as well? Also inspected by Ofsted I think. Only thing I could see a carve out for would be private 1:1 tuition. But it is education so...

Sadly, with all the cuts in education, good state schools are harder and harder to come by.

But of course, there are very many people who would like their children to have an actual decent standard of education, work their ass off and already can't afford private school fees.

I'd rather see more investment in state education for everyone rather than for the few that are already privileged (if you can afford private education pre VAT rise, then you can afford tutors and an awful lot of extras).

It depends doesn’t it. I think most families will do one less holiday a year and they’ll be fine.

I'm not sure if that was for me but I was only answering to say that some people will be insulated from the fall out because of the shrinking number of school children. We have a primary school that has receded from a three to a two form entry and the secondary catchment is on the march.

That doesn't mean that I don't think this is a change that won't have a social impact more widely.

I think a Labour government is inevitable at this point but they don't have my vote.