To think good school places will be even harder to find next year because of the VAT on school fees

[Nesca1]

We are are looking at secondary schools for DS. We have our eye on a decent school bang in the middle of a solid middle class area . The school is always over subscribed; this year we would have gotten a place but last year we would have missed out because of how far we are from the school.
Usually, the school offers places to children living 1600m away, last year it was 1400m due to a large number of sibling applications.

Due to the whole VAT issue, i think more parents from the local area are going to be sending their kids to this school, rather than sending them to private schools.

Is this a reasonable assumption? I don't think parents will wait for the policy to be enacted, but they will move their year 6 children into this school.

As has been pointed out already, many will only switch to state at natural transition points. They’ll be applying with everyone else at 11 for example. They don’t need to “quickly” do anything. Parents are already making those decisions because of the threat of VAT and have planned ahead.

I think a lot of people are missing the point that pushing more children (and their families) into the state school system is a good thing! The ability to pay your way out of the state system leads to a two tier unfair elitist system which means a lot of parents become removed from the issues in state schools. If their children are suddenly at the whims of the politicians and their spending cuts perhaps they might think more carefully about who they vote for? Perhaps they may be more invested in their local community and local school which will be for the benefit of everyone? If it means that the schools with the best reputations become oversubscribed then that will also push up numbers in the schools that were not so popular and with it bring interested and invested children and their families so raising the standards for all.
While those who hoped to buy their way out of using state provision feel aggrieved for their own personal situation, I think forcing more people to use it will be good for the state education system as a whole.

If they require further specialist sessions it seems more likely private schools are not just selecting children on academic ability.

It started here with lots of supply.

There are 4 school years between my eldest and youngest. Eldest was in classes of roughly 30 - then DS started having odd subject with larger classes - one being 60 in halls - now DD2 all but some of the options and nearer 40 than 30 with odd huge one - one teacher there admitted they can't fit the kids at desks in the room its floor and tables and they are aware DD2 struggles with it as it is so noisy. Seem to be considered normal now.

It was a good school when we applied for DD1 - now considered much less so which probably isn't helping it. Though some of the larger classes with experience teachers are fine for DD2 and some normal sized ones with very new teachers at least one who is outside teaching area cause her issues.

DS did well despite it all - fingers crossed DD2 does well enough to put it behind her as well.

That isn't going to be everyone and isn't really a "switch". I don't think it will be a bad thing.

Absolutely true, but in there has to be a pressure point and if your children are there during the transition it’s not ideal. I’d rather mine weren’t.

Even if they do put VAT on fees it doesn't mean it will be 20%.

One school near me has gone from being private to being a 'free school' to whatever they are now called.

Obviously they can't charge fees for tuition but they can for boarding and as they have boarding there is a certain amount of flexibility if you work long hours children can stay, have an evening meal and be collected for bed time.

They also rent out their facilities, swimming pool, dance studio and they run holiday events.

I can see other smaller local independents doing similar.

Many are, especially the more academic schools. Some private schools have specific science exams at 11 for example. The exams are far more detailed and lengthy than the grammar tests in many cases. The exams for some local private schools take around double the amount of time than the grammar test.

No one said it’s going to be everyone. Some will though. Prep schools are already seeing an increase in the number of children switching to state. The threat of VAT is a step too far for many families’ finances.

I've spoken about it on other threads - my kids are in state I'd rather the focus on was on improving state school and dealing with inequalities with that system and dealing with the teaching crisis.

It what I mean by a distraction - lets face it private school kids have economics and social capital to do well whatever - kids in schools already struggling in with teacher shortages well dismiss those concern and pretend they don't matter - it banging on about betters being allowed less while really not giving a shit about actual poorer kids.

Well for whatever reason that’s not an option that anyone I’ve spoken to has ever mentioned (nor do I know anyone who boards). I am just explaining that for a lot of people I know private school has been a route to having 2 ft professional jobs and the lifestyle they want. The maths is already getting tighter given frozen tax thresholds and VAT is a significant enough sudden change to make lots reconsider. I don’t have any direct skin in this game but it’s another factor putting pressure on recruiting and retaining ft professionals.

I don't see a problem with a small number choosing state in the immediate future.

The problem is that a 5% drop in pupil numbers in some private schools will cause the entire school to close. 5% make the choice - fine, but 100% then have no school. That's the problem in the school a relative of mine works at (with very precarious finances).

The grammar heads do……

Do you think your children are going to even be noticed once the state classes swell, hot dinners are removed because the catering staff can’t cope with the pressure of so many extra children.

How do you think already over stretched schools will cope?

Every child will be negatively affected - there will be even less to go around.

Mine went to a private primary followed by state grammar. We had no intention of private but she didn’t get a place at school we picked (you could only put one) and allocated school was inconvenient, poor outcomes and zero wrap around.
School cost me £500 a month all in. I’ve just checked and it’s £704 a month now.
That includes extended day, activities, 11 + prep, small classes and very working parent friendly.
When you added up what offering as an easy all in one package it was good value. My dc thrived academically and was happy.
At time it cost same as I was paying for nursery.

It is definitely going to be one of those situations where no one thinks it will affect them or their dc, until the day arrives and they are screaming blue murder that their child has gone from being a class of 33, to a class of 70 or 80 overnight and they are being taught in marquees in the freezing sub zero temperatures and taking in a picnic lunch.

I am keen to come on here when this crisis unfolds, and hear the same cheerleaders lament that their kids future lies in tatters, and only agency teachers are willing to take it on as most teachers have been signed off with stress.

The academic fall out will be horrendous but just keep clapping.

The combined classes was mentioned in a thread a while ago. If I find it, I'll link it. Meanwhile, here's an example of unqualified an cover supervisor being used to routinely teach classes rather than covering short-notice sickness: https://www.mumsnet.com/talk/primary/4846040-cover-supervisor-for-1-2-days-a-week-in-year-4is-this-ok

I thought that the number of children are dropping and some schools in london are closing. Seems unlikely that there will be a sudden "swell".

@Polishedshoesalways "It is definitely going to be one of those situations where no one thinks it will affect them until the day arrives and they are screaming blue murder that their child has gone from being a class of 33 to a class of 70 or 80 overnight"

Yep. That is definitely going to happen. Vote Conservative- it's the only hope.

I very doubt that classes will go from 33 to 70 or 80 overnight, especially if the VAT was introduced gradually.

I don't think it's organised scare tactics. Many people have stated it won't affect them.

Personally it wouldn't make a shit of difference to me if every private school in the land was closed down. I just think that it is the wrong thing to do - in practical terms, for all the reasons on this thread.

Of course, ideally, everyone would get the same education. But that is a pipe dream. Like literally someone smoking crack thinks that's possible. Do you remember Labour trying that in the 60s? Abolishing the grammar/secondary modern divide and replacing with comprehensives? It kinda fucked up. So I feel this is mark 2 of it.

It's always a case of unintended consequences with stuff like this. But whatevs - I'm not even going to vote as I think they are all a bunch of egotistical liars.

@wombat15 sorry-there really should be an irony font.

I didn't spot the irony as it is pretty much what some posters are trying to convince everyone will happen.

I think the first thing to go will be bursaries for new pupils in Independent schools. So a direct impact to incoming Year 7's and Year 9's for families without the means to meet full school fees.

Schools will do their level best to support kids who are already there, and in particular in exam years. If there is no tax benefit to the "charitable" status of the school they will remove anything that costs them money if they don't have the funds to maintain it.

If you are in an affluent area with oversubscribed state schools and a decent independent provision I would expect pressure on school places yes. If nothing else it's excruciatingly expensive to put kids through private school for most parents and most of those families are already making choices to support that decision. So if it were me, and I hadn't set a precedent with an older child I'd be hedging my bets, aiming for state for year 7 & 8 and saving for the exam years if that looked achievable as a contingency.