Does Trump increase or decrease ww3 risk?

[ChedderGorgeous]

NATO chiefs said Europe should prepare for world war 3 with Russia within 3 years. Trump famously wants to pull put of NATO, however, last time round he actually increased spending of US for NATO. It's all very hard to predict, but you could argue Putin would see Trump as a "stronger" leader than sleepy Joe and that's all that Putin respects. AIBU to say that Trump could be better for global stability despite all his huge negatives.

Here’s how I see it.

Putin’s plan was to conquer Ukraine in a few days in 2020, build up an army and resources there for a few years, then conquer the rest of the ex Soviet bloc, then use the conquered peoples as conscripted soldiers to conquer/dominate the rest of Europe.

As part of this, Putin’s intelligence services put huge effort into

1. weakening the EU (Brexit and causing constant waves of illegal immigration)

and

1. getting Trump elected, for two reasons: (A) Trump would not have helped Ukraine / Europe, making a Putin victory there likely, and (B) Trump weakens NATO and confuses domestic America, making it easier for Russia-China to become the world powers instead of America-Europe.

Unfortunately for Putin, covid happened in 2020, and so he had to delay the invasion of Ukraine. By the time Putin was able to invade Ukraine, Trump was out of power, and Biden/Europe rallied around Ukraine (because they know that if Ukraine falls that is the beginning of America-Europe falling).

But Putin can’t just shrug and give up, he’s under huge pressure from his people to win. So what he wants now is Trump back in power, so that Trump (who is well aware of the favours he owes Putin) will stop sending weapons and money to Ukraine and look the other way on Europe.

If Trump gets in, he’ll abandon Ukraine/Europe to Russia, and rule a much less powerful America, which is fine with Trump as the price of power. Ivanka would probably be President after him. So that wouldn’t exactly be WW3 (as America wouldn’t be involved) but it does mean a Europe controlled by Russia and a family dynasty of questionable ethics ruling America.

If Trump doesn’t get in, America will continue to support Ukraine and resist Russia’s attempts to control Europe. Which might mean WW3 unless a deal can be struck with Putin or he gets removed by his own people.

So whether or not Trump gets in, neither scenario is good for Europe.

China has been increasingly aggressive with Taiwan (and Hong Kong) and so is presumably waiting until Europe/America are completely bogged down fighting Russia before China invades Taiwan.

What I’m not sure is where the sudden increase in Middle East violence fits into this. But it will fit in. Perhaps the purpose of the attack on Israel (which we’re told was sponsored by Iran, but which certainly came at the perfect time for Putin 👀) and the inevitable horrific reprisal, was to prevent Biden getting his next chunk of money to send weapons to Ukraine. In which case it worked.

Ive got about a year left pushing it if i keep up with the pills thanks petal.

What i mean is i dont care i have already quoted on someone else taking pills i think that says it all.
Live while you can life is not promised.

Your previous post wasn't exactly explicit, the above even less. Care to elaborate on what it might actually mean?

What it means is i dont care.

You know last time around when everyone was gobsmacked about Trump becoming POTUS? Well if it happens again, it will be seriously, very bad news for Europeans, not just an opportunity for silly memes and virtue signalling.

Putin’s plan was to conquer Ukraine in a few days in 2020, build up an army and resources there for a few years, then conquer the rest of the ex Soviet bloc, then use the conquered peoples as conscripted soldiers to conquer/dominate the rest of Europe.

Did he tell you that?
If Putin wanted to conquer Ukraine in a few days he probably could have.

Putin wants Ukraine to stay neutral and not join NATO, he wanted the Minsk Accords upheld.

If Trump cut funding for the Ukraine war then that's in the best interests of the American tax payer who's money this actually is. Leaders are supposed to serve their own nation first. Americans don't have health care, their cities are struggling, they have a massive homeless problem, high crime rates.

The tax payers of Lahaina, Hawaii had fuck all help after their town was incinerated in a fire last year, the residents of East Palestine, Ohio had a really insulting amount of compensation something like $200 each when a train derailed spilling toxic chemicals known to cause cancer and contaminating their land. Animals half a mile away were dying and the residents didn't have the means to leave. These are the people who's taxes people think Ukraine is entitled to.

Does nobody wonder if Biden sending the American peoples money to the most corrupt country in Europe, when America badly needs investment is one of the things that makes Trump such an attractive option to them?

Trump wont save the world, some people are bonkers about him and think he will bring about world peace or something, but he will invest in his own people. That's what I would be looking for if I was a voter.

Yeah but……exceptionalism doesn’t really cut it in todays complex world.

Difficult to say really. Not sure about his NATO withdrawal noises but he seemed to do well with North Korea. I do think Biden is physically unfit to be president though. Surely the US can do better than another run off between Biden and Trump.

Yeah you’re right, I’ve seen the error of my ways.
Best to keep funnelling those peoples cash into a corrupt proxy war.

Yes, because that obviously means Trump can’t do anything beneficial to help ‘his people’, doesn’t it 😐

I think both increase and decrease likelihood of war.
I think he'll make a deal with Putin that Russia can have half of Ukraine. Trump will call this peace and hail it a big success. Most of the rest of Europe will go along with it because its too much bother not to. I don't think Putin will then try to expand further. He got his fingers massively burnt in Ukraine and I don't think he'd want to risk it again. I think he'd be relieved it's over.

Israel/Gaza is a much bigger challenge for Trump and I think this is were things could go badly wrong. People have described Trump as antisemitic, I don't think he is, I actually think he's a big supporter of Israel and he favourite child is a Jewish convert. I think he'll throw US weight behind Israel (in Israel, Iran, Yemen and Red Sea), partly just to action out his hatred of Muslims. Of course the UK will lap dog support him in this although I think few other countries will. This could turn into a real mess and massively increase terrorism around in the west.

In China/Taiwan and Korean peninsula, I think he'll lose interest so they can do whatever they want. We'll speak big words, maybe some sanctions, little else.

That’s an interesting post Kendodd and the sort of outcome I can see happening, as awful as it is.

I can't imagine Trump speaking "some big words"
I heard him on the radio rambling about corn. He apparently renamed it "liquid gold" (why use one descriptive name when you can confuse with two?) which everyone thought was very very clever, of course, and we are all going to start calling it that now, even though he knows really liquid gold is actually oil, OK?
He's batty and can barely handle a full sentence, rarely one that makes sense. Long words will not be happening.

Maybe one day you too will make something approaching a salient point 🤞

I’ve never felt the need for MN to have a “haha” react emoji until I just read this post

Read the responses to your posts CoatRack and reflect on them. It will be what they call a learning opportunity.

You wouldn't say that if you saw how many likes I get. But when the 'responses' boil down to "lol", and "hur dur your bad person", I'm inclined to call it an audience problem.

I'd far rather you look again at what I say, and then ask yourself why all you have in return is the equivalent of an Inca being told that there isn't a sun god.

Increase.

Trump's a massive willy waver with no brain and reactionary

Say what you want about trump
but he is definately not a war hawk. When he was in power there were no new wars and he did the Abraham accords causing a lot of stability in the Middle East. He is very anti war if you actually decide to listen to what he actually says rather than what the headlines tell you. I encourage you to actually go and check if he says what the media tells you. I was very anti trump until I started checking everything the media was accusing him of and so much was just flat out made up that it changed my opinion. Ye he isn’t the most polished person and he can say some very questionable things but as a president he was probably the best America has had in a long time if you just look at the results. Biden by all
metrics has been a shitshow and even 90% of dems would agree with that hs made the US a laughing stock and makes the US look weak.

It's also well established this election meddling had very little effect.
Very much overplayed.

Will Trump accelerate or decelerate a war spreading? No one knows.
The facts atm are the US and Russia are involved in proxy wars with each other in the Middle East and Europe.
I believe NATO will eventually enter a land war with Russia shortly. Trump or no Trump.

Ukraine's gonna fall anyway unless they get round the neogitating table and agree to give up the Donbas - just like Zelenskyy wanted to do in Easter 2022 but Biden talked him out of it.

Militarily the war is at a stalemate and Zelensky's approval ratings in Ukraine are dire. He's increasingly isolated and many of his closest advisers have faded away form his circle.

Ukraine War, so easy for us in the West to wear the flag and cheer on freedom blah blah blah but unless a person has actually experienced a war, theyire opinion and their flag waving is bullcrap.

Poland is re-arming itself, quickly. It's been doing that for about a year now. Poland isn't stupid.

@CoatRack you are backing up your position with how many ‘likes’ you get? How old are you? 5?

Oh yeah, and on his interest at home not abroad, that's nicely encapsulated by his attempts to bribe Zelensky and promote Russia narratives about the US election that suited both him and Moscow. His "peace keeping" is actually complete self-interest at the expense of his own country, let alone Europe

A reminder of the below, summed up here: www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/nov/30/trump-ukraine-alleged-bribery-impeachment-inquiry