To think we’ll have a new PM/election sooner than expected?

[Chocolatefrogs]

Have seen lots of stuff in the news this week about plotting to replace Rishi Sunak with a new Tory leader. I know there’s always lots of talk in the news about Tory in-fighting (especially given all the govt leadership challenges we’ve had in the last few years) but I think we are actually quite likely to get a new leader in the next few months, before the planned general election. AIBU?

I think a PP who seems to think labour are going to swan in and fix things overnight is hugely naive, but that doesn't mean there isn't plenty they CAN do.

Plus, if we could cut back a little on the corruption and ennui, that would be great. Perhaps start taking decisions based on an understanding of real life rather than their rich, privileged perspective. Some basic moral standards would go a long way to getting the public to be a bit more supportive of government efforts too.

This exactly echoes what I said earlier. There is plenty they can do but they can't do it all so we cannot expect services at the level they used to be. Corruption is also a big problem but that is the case no matter who is in charge. None of the parties have been able to achieve long term goals.

@Tomorrowillbeachicken et al,
Rishi’s seat is very, very secure. I can’t find the source but I’ve definitely read that Richmond is one of the safest conservative seats.

I think it will end up a Labour government who will need to tread water for their first term to stop anything getting worse and hope to win a second to make improvements. They will be reliant on their ability to convince the voting majority that change can come given time rather than an instant gratification ideal.

I’m over the border with our own host of problems but have a vested interest due to where my family are.

Sunak has no chance of losing his seat. If 25% of those who voted for him switch to Labour, and a further 20% stay at home, he would still win.
2019 election results in Richmond:
Con 36,693 (63.6% majority 27,210)
Lab 9,483
Lib 6,989
Others 4,538
Majority 27,210

I'm not sure it'll matter tbh.

They e us so much infighting, have lost direction and screwed the country putting someone else as leader for the GE alone isn't going to be enough.

They need to stop, take stock, find their way and find their way back to those who would usually vote for them who they have lost.

I suspect the timetable for the election will be
In the first week after summer recess (Monday 2nd September to Friday 6th September) - Announcement, followed by wash-up period and preparation of writs.
12th September or 19th September - Dissolution of Parliament (by Charles III)
Election to be held exactly 5 weeks later (17th October or 24th October).

So you think my passion for returning to the EU is misguided? Seems to be a lot on here that think that. I am pro-EU and never wanted to leave. We had it good with our old deal and that is what I want to return to.

I will stick to my guns and say we could strike a deal to sort us all, but currency would be a red flag. I am also pro-UK - not just England like you implied but the whole Kingdom. I want us to succeed and be a rich island with prospects as well as having a successful EU on our doorstep who we trade easily with.

I always try and listen to other people's opinions and learn from it. I want to rejoin but cant get my head around why we should take the euro. It would not be beneficial for the UK. Now if Keir suggests it, I could not vote for him. Lord knows what I would do then!

I think late October is a possibility, not before. November could be a bad choice because many people are often affected by the outdated practice of GMT in winter and so mood is down.

I hope it's Kemi not Penny. Kemi is amazing, if you saw her in the Equality commission she had all her facts to hand and out hrt points through clearly

I wouldn’t describe Kemi Badenoch as amazing. She might be a clear communicator, but she has very extreme views. I think I’d prefer Penny, as I think her views (or as much as I know of them) are less extreme. I don’t vote Conservative though.

@2016MyLove yes I do think it’s misguided to have rejected the best deal that benefitted the U.K. as a whole and basically taken a giant shit on the EU table by lying about them, insulting them and taking every opportunity to crow about how we didn’t need them and now expect they’d have us back on any terms, much less the same favourable ones we had because we think we’d be doing them a favour.
You really need to understand how damaged the UK’s reputation is in Europe thanks to this government. No one is interested.

We will never have that relationship again and we don’t deserve to. I voted remain but in the years since hearing leave voters complain about loss of freedom of movement, loss of subsidies, loss of job and education opportunities and all the rest simply because they wanted to stick two fingers up at Johnny Foreigner, the more I think we deserve to be in this shit because why would anyone reward that kind of behaviour.

The population has exploded since that time yet we have fewer GP’s as many can’t cope with NHS chaos and are retiring or moving to Australia etc.
How will Sir Keir magic up more GP’s, especially since he believes like Sunak in mass immigration and open borders?

One way to increase the number of GPs is to increase the number of medical school places. I know that’s a very long term solution, as it’s affected by lots of variables, all of which take time to happpen:

• create a policy to increase medical school places
• find the students to fill those places
• students will need to graduate and qualify as doctors
• will then choose a GP-related training route and to qualify as a GP
• then stay working as a GP for several years at least (need to think about the retention challenges for GPs too, and how to solve these)

However, it’s an option to consider.

I will hark back to the now infamous tweet of 2015 by David Cameron.

“Britain faces a simple and inescapable choice – stability and strong Government with me, or chaos with Ed Miliband”.

I'd love to see the UK back in the EU but @Over40Overdating is right, it wont happen.

Because we are a very divided nation, we wont even re-join the SM as that means FOM.
The EU don't need the UK changing its mind and leaving again.

Your refusal to accept EU rules of membership over the euro, shows this division very clearly and why we'll never be re admitted, that you'd rather have a Tory Govt than Labour draws into question any EU commitment, they are an anti Europe party because if you don't vote Lab, thats what we'll get.

Anyway, Sunak will hold on, GE in January 2025, he craves power and wont want to lose it a day sooner than he has too Plus January, few boats crossing, he wont need people reminded of his failure on this

The Conservatives can't win with Sunak as leader. He's universally disliked and even many Conservative voters won't vote for him because he was not voted in by members. Starmer is not popular either. Not Davies. We have shit politicians at the moment. I simply won't vote for any of them.

I actually think Trump will be President of the US again. It baffles me why Americans like such ancient Presidents.

'However I cannot support adopting the Euro. That would be a deal breaker and I say that as someone who is very pro-EU.'

• Why would it be a deal breaker? Personally I wouldn't mind either way, if we had to adopt the Euro so be it. I realise many people are not in favour

All public services still waste far too much money. I was listening to some news on the radio in the car a few days ago and heard the Met had spent tens of thousands on finding out the colour of the personality of police officers. Yes, you read that correctly. Biggest bullshit waste of money ever. It's stuff like this that we simply don't need and can't afford. The amount of money spent on inclusion and diversity zhars is outrageous. Whatever is wrong with issuing each candidate a number so no pro nouns or candidate name used and simply picking the best candidate for the job?

I don't know, research suggests the NHS is comparably very efficient.

But from my experience, the private sector involvement seems to just make matters worse, companies bought in, using NHS staff but new contracts, different HR and IT all duplicating what the NHS was doing but know badged with a new name... all in the name of "Reform"

On your specific point, the racism/homophobia people experience and the misogyny women face, is why we have these managers etc.

I agree, it's a poisoned chalice. Anyone with any sense would be running as fast as they can away from this mess, the last thing any serious politician would want is for their name to be associated with this administration.
Any up and coming Tory MPs will be hiding away for a few a years until they can form a credible opposition, untarnished by any connection with the shitshow of the last decade.
Even CallmeDave won't want the job, unless it's to raise his profile a little to ensure the next round of after dinner speaking is assured. It's probably quite fun for him , being able to swoop in to rescue his mates, then zap off again when it all gets too tedious, or, y'know, blame-y.

PictureFrameWindow · Today 12:55
**
They are deluded if they think a change of leader can turn things around now. On Question Time the audience were laughing at the Tory MP on the panel in pure contempt”

Indeed and wasn’t he embarrassingly petulant about it?

GreekDogRescue

If you think sir Keir will do any of this you need your head examined”

In the first term, no. The one single best thing any PM could do though would be to instigate another referendum on EU membership. I suspect there would be a very different result if they had the courage. (Though of course whether we would immediately meet the conditions is debatable).

WallaceinAnderland · Today 15:03

It makes no difference who is PM or which party wins an election. There is no magic fix.”

There is a magic fix to one immense problem, which is to allow councils to build housing for sensible rents again. It’s really not that difficult with political will.

Agree we desperately need more social housing.. I dread to think how we will end up if we don't do this.

Imagine going to the supermarket to buy three things. They each cost £2. You only have £5. You can't afford all three, so you have to prioritise.

If you gave that £5 to your friend and asked them to get the shopping because they are better at maths than you, they would still face the same problem and would still have to prioritise

You haven't factored in that currently, we give the friend £5, they distribute £4.50 to their family and friends, spend 50p getting a tiny piece of everything you need and tell you that you should be grateful.

There won't be more money in the pot when Labour are in charge, we can only hope that by spending all of what they wisely, might be enough to put the breaks on the downhill run we are currently on.

Things I hope Labour can do:

Set up a refugee processing station in France, working with the French authorities to process applicants (run the pre processing checks there) and then bring successful applicants over by ferry or plane.

Revisit the vet agreement with the EU and bring this back into line, meaning we can move food across the borders again unchecked, avoid cheap, chlorinated chicken from America and as an individual citizen, travel with pets easily again.

Rebuild the trade agreements with the EU. Negotiate in good faith.

Bring employment rights back into line with EU standards on things like breaks, allow employees access to employment tribunal sooner than 2 years.

Stop free ports (or ensure employees there have the same rights as elsewhere).

Attract doctors and nurses back into the NHS. Look at ways to retain them.

Recoup the money stolen from us with dodgy ppe through covid, back room deals and dodgy contracts. Ensure that public servants that have received kick backs have to repay them.

Tax the billionaires properly and scrap non dom status.

I could go on.