To think we’ll have a new PM/election sooner than expected?

[Chocolatefrogs]

Have seen lots of stuff in the news this week about plotting to replace Rishi Sunak with a new Tory leader. I know there’s always lots of talk in the news about Tory in-fighting (especially given all the govt leadership challenges we’ve had in the last few years) but I think we are actually quite likely to get a new leader in the next few months, before the planned general election. AIBU?

It makes no difference who is PM or which party wins an election. There is no magic fix.

Our country is poorer now. Services cannot go back to the levels they were. There is a lot that can be done but not all of it so they will have to choose where to spend. It's not a job I would want tbh.

I expect whichever party wins, they will prioritise different services each year. Probably health and education first. Then cuts will be made to health and education in order to fund defence and climate change. Then cuts will be made to defence and climate change in order to fund transport and social services. Then cuts will be made to transport and social services in order to fund health and education. And round and round we go until the next GE when everything is still fucked up.

Excellent point - lots of food for thought there. I wouldn’t want to inherit the current situation we’re in - whichever party gets in has a lot of work to do. I agree they will have to prioritise different areas for investment even more ruthlessly than usual - the next few years will certainly not be easy.

I have never voted Tory and will be voting Labour this time - but it is beyond delusional to imagine we would be back in the EU in 2 years - or even 5 or 10, that just isn't going to be possible, however much people want it.

Oh, and as for We need to rejoin the EU who will take control of our water and stop the poo in it The poo was in it during the entirety of our EU membership - it didn't suddenly appear in 2016. The EU didn't stop it then so it's not clear who you think they'd stop it now.

We need Labour in power with all the freshness it brings and goodness they can do for us all.

Love your optimism but where is the magic money coming from? Do you really think things will change that much under Labour. There's not a lot they can do.

If they just don't steal and lie, that would be an improvement but the days where civil servants worked for the public good are long gone. They are all feathering their own nests, regardless of which party is in charge.

😂😂 just finding the imagery funny - the idea of sewage just magically appearing in British waters the minute the EU referendum result is announced, so it can ‘take back control’. British sewage in British waters. If you have any good scatological puns to share, please do - answers on a postcard.

No I am not pulling your leg. Ok maybe I am a bit naive to think Keir will sort out all our ills and deep down I know its tough. My dad's workmate always calls me naive when we talk about politics and ok I get it, maybe I am!

But Labour will prioritise our health service, this is a no brainer and we can get that great service again. Get more staff in by renegotiating with the EU - its a huge pool of people to fill the staffing void, get people seen and the lists down, leaving more fit people to work and improve the economy - why is that so impossible to achieve? Why all the negativity?

I am scratching my head as to why anyone would vote Tory because they are not managing the NHS very well are they? I want to experience a Labour government, just as my parents did. I still believe I am right and things will improve.

Some things will improve, but not at the rate you suggest.
It will be good to have a government that tries to look after more than just millionaires who don't pay any tax.
We won't be able to rejoin the EU so quickly and easily as you think - just asking nicely and paying the entrance fee won't work - there would be a lot of wrangling over terms and we'd probably have to adopt the Euro as every other new joiner has had to - and that would not be a trivial undertaking.

I knew Sunak would be a terrible PM. He has less than zero political instinct. Surely he’ll lose his seat?

Cameron met his FIL on a trade tour in India, the next minute, Sunak was parachuted into a safe seat. He was there 5 minutes before agreeing to be Cummings puppet in the Treasury, where he wrote off billions in Covid debt. Now he’s PM and still useless. He’s shit at everything but has unshakable self confidence.

And did anyone really call him ‘Dishy Rishi’ outside of the right wing media? Can’t wait for him and his thieving wife to fuck off to California.

Rishi’s seat is very very safe, unlikely he’ll lose it. I’d pay to see it happen though.

With the raging conflict worsening by the day, I don’t think either party are desperate for an election. That would require an election campaign and politicians on both sides aren’t able to carry out talks with their own paid up members without being heckled.

A late autumn election would be my bet.

👏👏👏😭😭😭

We won't be able to rejoin the EU so quickly and easily as you think - just asking nicely and paying the entrance fee won't work - there would be a lot of wrangling over terms and we'd probably have to adopt the Euro as every other new joiner has had to - and that would not be a trivial undertaking.

I think the EU will listen as the UK is still very powerful. Arent we the 5th largest economy - or maybe 6th? I'm not one for queue jumping, but to have the UK as part of the EU instead of Moldova, well no brainer. We bring a lot to the table.

However I cannot support adopting the Euro. That would be a deal breaker and I say that as someone who is very pro-EU.

I really don’t think we’ll rejoin the EU any time soon.

I think it would be politically impossible because, firstly, there is so much opposition in this country to EU membership (some of it is based on valid reasoning and some based on the incorrect info we were given by the Leave campaign), and secondly, it will require so much careful diplomacy and take so much time to negotiate re-joining with the other member states.

I’m sure lots of people - members of the public and politicians in the U.K. - who would like to rejoin the EU are opposed to adopting the euro as a condition of membership, so negotiations to rejoin would be so time-consuming - and diplomatically difficult- because of this.

Practically guarantees the new leader will be a woman then I'd say!

It is morally bankrupt that we are on who knows how many prime ministers since the last election. I think it should be legislated that if the leader changes more than once, an election must be called. It's bloody outrageous. I am not sure I'd even heard of Rishi Sunk or Liz prior to the last election.

Also, given that we decided to leave the EU in the first place, we really don’t have any negotiating clout in our favour if we want to rejoin the EU. We won’t be able to ask to re-join and then set conditions for that ie. ask to rejoin but keep our own separate currency.

My money is that the new leader - whenever they are elected - will be someone very right-wing, because the current party has been criticised for not being right wing enough - and not following through on their right wing rhetoric.

Perhaps it’ll be Boris Johnson again - if this is possible - or Suella Braverman/Kemi Badenoch. I’d say it’s more likely for it to be SB or KB, as they have the ‘right wing credentials’ and it seems they have plenty of support from the right wing of the party.

I want to experience a Labour government, just as my parents did.

The next Labour government won't be anything like the government your parents experienced.

What you need to understand is that it's not the party in charge in the UK that changes things, it's global economics. War causes inflation. Climate affects crops which affects inflation. Increased borrowing is also a problem.

Labour cannot fix our economy. It's not like they are just sitting there with a huge pot of money waiting on the sidelines to spend it. It's the same people, the same taxes and increased social needs.

Imagine going to the supermarket to buy three things. They each cost £2. You only have £5. You can't afford all three, so you have to prioritise.

If you gave that £5 to your friend and asked them to get the shopping because they are better at maths than you, they would still face the same problem and would still have to prioritise.

The problem, for the country, is that a new leader for the Tories now would be someone who just wants their name in lights.

They know they’re heading for a loss so nobody with serious political ambitions wants in. That kind of politician wants to be the one after the election that brings them back popularity.

Anyone taking over from Sunak now will be a nest feather extraordinaire imo

No matter who is in charge, there is no way of making the NHS great again without drastic changes that no political party will make.

There are too many managers covering arses and too much waste and inefficient but headline making initiatives that get quietly canned after 6 months.

@2016MyLove We have brought very little to the EU table in recent years - Farage as an MEP who drew a salary and pension for nothing more than turning up to sneer at everyone and then put two fingers up with Brexit. He said the EU didn’t work yet did nothing as an elected rep but feather his own nest then blamed everyone else. Who would want to subject themselves to that again?

The opinion of the UK in the wider EU bloc has never been lower.

And you’ve demonstrated why - you think the EU would be clapping its hands in delight to have its toxic ex back, because we’re so important, and they will push us to the top
of the queue to sort out all of our self inflicted damage. But if they ask we follow the conditions some of the other countries have like common currency? Absolutely not! We want everything for nothing and expect them to be grateful.

English exceptionalism and arrogance will continue to be the downfall of this country. The EU have not suffered for losing the U.K. The UK has ruined farming, the economy and international trade by leaving the EU. They do not need us, we need them, and they don’t want us back.

Of course there are global issues at play. But there are lots and lots of things that a better government can do.

In your supermarket £5 example alone, there's obviously the fact that perhaps your friend is better at prioritising or making better long term decisions. Which is part of how we choose our governments - we want ones that will make better decisions within the framework of the existing realities. I think a PP who seems to think labour are going to swan in and fix things overnight is hugely naive, but that doesn't mean there isn't plenty they CAN do.

Plus, if we could cut back a little on the corruption and ennui, that would be great. Perhaps start taking decisions based on an understanding of real life rather than their rich, privileged perspective. Some basic moral standards would go a long way to getting the public to be a bit more supportive of government efforts too.

I have feeling that Suella Braverman will be leading the GE campaign promising to machine gun immigrants and putting the disabled in workhouses. And the Daily Mail will be backing her to the hilt

The government may not be able to fix or change things, but their job is to manage things well. That is literally what we are paying them to do. For example, the way this government has managed Covid and inflation has been terrible - it’s been panicked, slapdash and has felt un-empathetic.

Whenever I watch government ministers or the PM answer questions about inflation in interviews, I cringe. The PM in particular has a horrible habit of doing a slight smirk and saying things like, ‘oh I wish I could help with X/Y/Z but factor A/B/C is stopping me…’ It comes across as lazy, uncaring and downright disrespectful, given that it is his job to manage the country. A better answer would be to say something like ‘yes, factors A/B/C are making it challenging to resolve X/Y/Z, but we are doing this, that and the other to help resolve the situation, and are also looking at other plans as well’.

I think being in government is an impossible job - even being an MP - but people shouldn’t put themselves up for that job if they cannot do it. I know that is so so much easier said than done, but it is the answer.

We'd never get the deal we already had. We got to have our cake and eat it and still voted out.

Exactly. I think it would have been much more strategic if we’d tried to reform our relationship with the EU (easy in theory - difficult to achieve in practice though!) rather than ending it completely.

It’s also been such a messy ending that is still open-ended and not really concluded in some ways. This is making things complicated for us (although I know it’s self inflicted!) and complicated for the EU.