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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

To think that preparing for war with Russia is total madness?

297 replies

Newbutoldfather · 21/01/2024 19:37

General Patrick Sanders, our top general, warns troops ‘must be prepared to fight Russia in the battlefield’.

There is increasing acceptance of the idea that we could somehow fight a limited war with Russia. I just don’t believe this.

Leaving aside that our military consists of a toy battleship and an old man with a wooden gun (only slight hyperbole), have people wished nukes away?

I am very curious as to what this war would look like. Are they envisaging that there would be a limited battlefield and a list of allowed weapons and that the loser would shake hands and walk away?

I think we are perilously close to the total annihilation of Homo sapiens (which would happen in a nuclear war). We, meaning the west and, especially, the increasingly jingoistic UK, need to dial back the rhetoric and look for a way to find peace, even if we have to compromise on our principles.

Interested in what people think and whether people do think that AIBU.

OP posts:
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EasternStandard · 22/01/2024 13:33

Going back to your op I don’t think it’s mad to realise the threat of escalation is there and plan accordingly

Missamyp · 22/01/2024 13:35

MagicFox · 22/01/2024 13:13

What would Russia gain from attacking Poland? Why would Russia want to pull NATO into a conflict? Yes, it's very dangerous because war is unpredictable and there may be black swan events. But barring this let's hope that the red line is recognised and respected by both sides precisely because of an awareness of the consequences of a 21st century great power war. China too.

Iran and NK, who knows

NK and Iran are currently supporting the war (Russia) in Ukraine and the conflicts in the Middle East. China is also supporting Russia by supplying vast amounts of resources in the form of non-lethal aid.
Poland is quite rightly worried as they have the strategically important Suwałki Gap to defend. Russia may well capitalise on the distraction of Western elections to further test NATO's resolve in this area.

MagicFox · 22/01/2024 13:36

And even if that line is kept, it doesn't mean something unpredictable can't happen, for which we need to be prepared. Remember those near misses eg when a missile meant for ukraine hit the polish border? That was managed but it was a dangerous moment. And you can see how easily and even unintentionally escalation would happen

SerendipityJane · 22/01/2024 13:36

It doesn’t take long to retool factories to produce weapons. America already have plenty of capacity and Germany could turn their auto factories around in weeks if they really wanted to, which they don’t for Ukraine.

For people who like history and facts, there was a fascinating documentary series "War Factories" (UKTV History) which looked at WW2 from a purely economic and industrial viewpoint. Basically the war was lost for German in 1942. And each month saw the allies make more and more and more and more and more and more guns. bullets, cars, trucks, planes. ships (they were launching 3 a week for gods sake) - you name it,.

MagicFox · 22/01/2024 13:37

Russia may well capitalise on the distraction of Western elections to further test NATO's resolve in this area.

Exactly why it has to be made clear that the resolve is there

SerendipityJane · 22/01/2024 13:39

EasternStandard · 22/01/2024 13:33

Going back to your op I don’t think it’s mad to realise the threat of escalation is there and plan accordingly

Well the OP was predicated on some bellyaching from a soldier. And using the legal precept of "cui bono", it should be remembered that for them, a successful outcome would be more money for the military.

SerendipityJane · 22/01/2024 13:40

Russia may well capitalise on the distraction of Western elections to further test NATO's resolve in this area.

Maybe we should cancel the election then ?

FloorWipes · 22/01/2024 13:43

Newbutoldfather · 22/01/2024 13:27

America is incredibly good at taking nations, just not holding them against the wishes of the people, which is always tricky and not merely about the military.

It doesn’t take long to retool factories to produce weapons. America already have plenty of capacity and Germany could turn their auto factories around in weeks if they really wanted to, which they don’t for Ukraine.

Russia is a tiny economy globally speaking.

I don’t think they have any desire to come into conflict with NATO. They know how it would go, either absent of nukes or, even worse, with them.

So, going back to my OP, why the stupid and risky jingoism from the UK (and my post was about the UK, not the U.S, who are a genuine player) political and military establishment?

Which UK political and military statements did you find to be jingoistic?

Newbutoldfather · 22/01/2024 13:43

@MagicFox ,

I know, Biden was desperate to hear Schapps words, without which Russia would March straight into Lithuania without a second thought. The might of the Royal Navy (68 ships, 2 aircraft carriers, only one currently fully operational) and our army of 70,000 troops is the only thing stopping Vlad in his tracks.

Seriously, do some people lead such insular lives that they don’t realise that we have become a second rate power posturing as a superpower?

Our one ship in the Red Sea which took out one Houthi missile, guided by command on a U.S ship, is national news.

We are currently living in a bipolar World with the U.S and China the only military forces that matter. However, nukes have changed the game. Russia (and Israel, Pakistan, India, North Korea and soon Iran) cannot compete in a conventional war, but they can all wreak horrific destruction (especially Russia).

They this need to be dealt with carefully and diplomatically…

OP posts:
Missamyp · 22/01/2024 13:45

MagicFox · 22/01/2024 13:37

Russia may well capitalise on the distraction of Western elections to further test NATO's resolve in this area.

Exactly why it has to be made clear that the resolve is there

Indeed the military knows that.
But the liberal societies of the West just see it as a problem that's over there somewhere. The idea that we'll just turn the factories into a war effort overnight is nonsense. We couldn't even supply our island with masks during the COVID-19 pandemic.
That's the issue.
Realism vs Liberalism (International political relations).
I'm writing in shorthand as the topic is broad. However, I believe Western peace is over.

MagicFox · 22/01/2024 13:48

I'm not saying you're wrong about the threat estimate but I'm surprised you can't see why posturing is part of all of this.

The UK is part of NATO so I don't think the UK as a single actor vs its role as part of NATO is so easily separated out

EasternStandard · 22/01/2024 13:50

Newbutoldfather · 22/01/2024 13:43

@MagicFox ,

I know, Biden was desperate to hear Schapps words, without which Russia would March straight into Lithuania without a second thought. The might of the Royal Navy (68 ships, 2 aircraft carriers, only one currently fully operational) and our army of 70,000 troops is the only thing stopping Vlad in his tracks.

Seriously, do some people lead such insular lives that they don’t realise that we have become a second rate power posturing as a superpower?

Our one ship in the Red Sea which took out one Houthi missile, guided by command on a U.S ship, is national news.

We are currently living in a bipolar World with the U.S and China the only military forces that matter. However, nukes have changed the game. Russia (and Israel, Pakistan, India, North Korea and soon Iran) cannot compete in a conventional war, but they can all wreak horrific destruction (especially Russia).

They this need to be dealt with carefully and diplomatically…

This second rate power stuff is irrelevant, we’re part of NATO, we don’t have to be strong to go it alone

But all NATO allies will have to put their hands in their pockets, especially if Trump gets in and stops

MagicFox · 22/01/2024 13:51

@Missamyp but isn't this exactly a pitch for an increase in defence spending and the ability to respond if/when necessary?

SerendipityJane · 22/01/2024 13:52

The idea that we'll just turn the factories into a war effort overnight is nonsense.

The UK looks set to lose all steel production. Back to wooden ships and planes then.

FloorWipes · 22/01/2024 13:54

We are currently living in a bipolar World with the U.S and China the only military forces that matter. However, nukes have changed the game. Russia (and Israel, Pakistan, India, North Korea and soon Iran) cannot compete in a conventional war, but they can all wreak horrific destruction (especially Russia).

But OP this is evidently false if you just look at what is happening this week, let alone what could happen.

Further more, the very problem that has arisen is that we no longer do live in a bipolar world.

Bit rich to call others insular and needing to catch up.

EasternStandard · 22/01/2024 13:58

MagicFox · 22/01/2024 13:48

I'm not saying you're wrong about the threat estimate but I'm surprised you can't see why posturing is part of all of this.

The UK is part of NATO so I don't think the UK as a single actor vs its role as part of NATO is so easily separated out

I think this is where the op is getting it somewhat wrong

The UK may be drawn in via our defence pact and it makes sense to be aware and get more prepared

L1ttledrummergirl · 22/01/2024 14:00

The fantasy of tank battles across the plains of Eastern Europe is just that-a fantasy.

Does Russia even have that many tanks left? Ukraine seems to be doing a damn good job of blowing them into pieces.
Weren't their latest batch in service from the 1950s?

SerendipityJane · 22/01/2024 14:00

The UK may be drawn in via our defence pact and it makes sense to be aware and get more prepared

We could always ... not honour it. No one would be surprised really.

CantDealwithChristmas · 22/01/2024 14:01

I don't think we need to fight physical wars so much anymore. There is a war being fought out for our hearts and minds via social media and it's winning.

biggest near term threat is cyber attack by a bad actor (whether state or parastate or terrorist) which takes out our infrastructure.

However physical war is not beyond the realms of possibility. Poland and the Baltics are certainly rearming very quickly and spending lots of money on doing so.

If I look at recent public pronouncements from political and academic figures, I believe we are being gently prepared for a cyber or real world conflict within the next five years.

EasternStandard · 22/01/2024 14:02

SerendipityJane · 22/01/2024 14:00

The UK may be drawn in via our defence pact and it makes sense to be aware and get more prepared

We could always ... not honour it. No one would be surprised really.

I’m glad you’re just posting on mn not deciding ;

SerendipityJane · 22/01/2024 14:03

L1ttledrummergirl · 22/01/2024 14:00

The fantasy of tank battles across the plains of Eastern Europe is just that-a fantasy.

Does Russia even have that many tanks left? Ukraine seems to be doing a damn good job of blowing them into pieces.
Weren't their latest batch in service from the 1950s?

There was a spoof comparison of USSR and NATO forces in the 80s that noted Russia had tanks capable of going 0-180mph in less than a second with a footnote

"...Admittedly dropping them out of planes may seem unconventional, but they have 150,000 of the things to get rid of ....

SerendipityJane · 22/01/2024 14:03

EasternStandard · 22/01/2024 14:02

I’m glad you’re just posting on mn not deciding ;

Quite. I leave it up to our government to stick to the treaties we have signed.

EasternStandard · 22/01/2024 14:11

As long as people don’t think the NATO pact is optional fine by me

Although I do find it ridiculous when people scoff at US funds, it’ll only cost us more if they leave

And hopefully only costing more money - not more than that

I think we’re removed, luckily for us, and have been for a while but it makes people draw bad conclusions

Missamyp · 22/01/2024 14:15

MagicFox · 22/01/2024 13:48

I'm not saying you're wrong about the threat estimate but I'm surprised you can't see why posturing is part of all of this.

The UK is part of NATO so I don't think the UK as a single actor vs its role as part of NATO is so easily separated out

I agree this may all be political/military posturing. However, to posture convincingly the opposing side needs to see real substance to this.
The reason for singling out the UK is our society does not have either the right frame of mind nor does it have the industrial capability to fight a war. We have a small professional army, with limited resources.
The rest of the general pop is hardly resilient.

SerendipityJane · 22/01/2024 14:22

As long as people don’t think the NATO pact is optional fine by me

All international treaties are optional. Why else talk about ignoring them ?

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