To think that preparing for war with Russia is total madness?

[Newbutoldfather]

General Patrick Sanders, our top general, warns troops ‘must be prepared to fight Russia in the battlefield’.

There is increasing acceptance of the idea that we could somehow fight a limited war with Russia. I just don’t believe this.

Leaving aside that our military consists of a toy battleship and an old man with a wooden gun (only slight hyperbole), have people wished nukes away?

I am very curious as to what this war would look like. Are they envisaging that there would be a limited battlefield and a list of allowed weapons and that the loser would shake hands and walk away?

I think we are perilously close to the total annihilation of Homo sapiens (which would happen in a nuclear war). We, meaning the west and, especially, the increasingly jingoistic UK, need to dial back the rhetoric and look for a way to find peace, even if we have to compromise on our principles.

Interested in what people think and whether people do think that AIBU.

Ps typo above, further west of Ukraine of course, not east!

I wonder the motive to war monger on forums. Now let me think…..🤔

Repeatedly Posting. And yet no one seems to care. 🥱

The op said insular in a pp but this is what they are missing - a wider view

@Newchapterbeckons ,

Well, clearly I started the thread and contribute because it interests me.And the vote is enlightening too, as it is fairly split. More interestingly, why are you so worried as to be posting on it pre 6AM?

@EasternStandard ,

Military will always want to prepare for war. It is their entire raison d’etre. It means more money and power for them.

Russia ‘thinks the US wouldn’t dare respond to nuclear attack’

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/567e750a-b1be-40b5-b171-04ce546d8598?shareToken=bdcb82a94a06f9a1f62ba1c77df2b7dc

And, interestingly, in the Times this morning, more talk of how we could limit a nuclear war should Russia use tactical nukes, without it escalating to Armageddon.

I think every time they have war games nukes being used, Armageddon has always been the end point. Hopefully Putin realises this.

That wasn’t the point. I meant you are using insular incorrectly as you have missed wider news not pp

Yes this was reported yesterday in some other publications and here is the original report https://www.iiss.org/research-paper/2024/01/russian-military-thought-and-doctrine-related-to-nonstrategic-nuclear-weapons/

I've read the times article and I still don't get why Russia would attack a nato state. I can see why there might be concerns about Russia attacking another non nato state if it wins in ukraine. But why would russia put itself into a position where a conventional war with Nato (meaning nuclear escalation it can't guarantee won't endanger itself) would happen? If the objective is to conquer land, why would they choose a nato country?

@Livida ,

You are assuming that Putin is a rational actor, and his decisions are made in Russia’s interests and not his and his cronies.

People also forget that Russia gave up its empire in return for a NATO promise that parts of the old USSR would remain neutral and not join NATO. One e one they have. From Putin’s perspective, the idea of an at least partly Russian speaking nation joining NATO was the last straw.

The West is a little hypocritical here, in that we have protected our sphere of influence militarily whenever we felt it necessary. The US and UK have not been squeamish about thinly justified Middle Eastern adventures.

A lot of this is about resources, and not great principles. Biden gave up Afghanistan to the most horrific regime at the drop of a hat (and, let’s face it, the EU really doesn’t care at all about anything outside its borders)

We also gave up Hong Kong to China without trying hard but, Taiwan, which fabricates 80% of the world’s chips is another matter.

The current calculus regarding Putin is that he is greedy and cowardly and wouldn’t risk him or his loved one’s lives, which he has assuredly been promised in private should he use nukes or attack NATO.

But he needs to be dealt with carefully, by people who understand him and not stupid British politicians trying to publicly humiliate him for the sake of an election.

NATO generals are saying prepare for war, it’s linked in pp.

We are too. It doesn’t change things if we are too worried to talk about it.

I think I am assuming that Putin is a rational actor. Your explanation supports his position and suggests he's acted rationally in invading Ukraine (ie because of NATO expansion.) So on one hand you're saying he's a rational actor, but this might not extend to higher level decisions? I'm not trying to be antagonistic, just to understand the contradictions

I don't think the rational actor theory really is one that understands dynamics.

Putin is a rational actor but he isn't governed by the same rational as the west. To him civilians are to be used and serve a purpose. And by extension are disposable.

Western ideas about acceptable loses and acceptable risks are totally different. A marginal gain at a very heavy cost is an acceptable cost to Putin if it has strategic benefits both domestically and internationally.

So he is rational but playing by a totally different playbook.

Thanks, that makes sense

Trump will almost certainly win in November, arguments over NATO, prepping for war, will vanish, as will NATO, he cannot have a 3rd term, so will have no limiters to what he will do, so no to climate change treaties and no to NATO.

Without the Americans, Europe will have to fall back on the French and British Nuclear deterrents & the sacrifice made by Ukraine will be all for nothing.

I also find it incredible that the Govt will not commit to even 2.5% of GDP on defence and are planning to reduce the size of our armed force, even that figure includes non military spending i.e pensions.

Do you have a source for your claim about Russia giving up its empire in exchange for non expansion of NATO

I'm presuming you mean something other than the discussions around the reunification of Germany.

There were assurances which were not upheld by the West
Article which gives some background

But he needs to be dealt with carefully, by people who understand him and not stupid British politicians trying to publicly humiliate him for the sake of an election.

OP you seem obsessed with this part, but I don't think you are interpreting it correctly. This isn't particularly an election winner for the Tories. And as many have pointed out, the statements are similar to those made by NATO and other governments. Only if you haven't been paying attention would you feel that this statement has come out of the blue.

I his recent essay on idealism and realism in international relations, Aris Roussinos opened by saying the following:
"Last week, the Defence Secretary, Grant Shapps, warned that we are “moving from a post-war to a pre-war world” where, “in five years’ time, we could be looking at multiple theatres [of conflict] involving Russia, China, Iran, North Korea”. This can hardly be seen as the mere electoral ploy of a flailing government: there must, by this stage, remain very few voters who would entrust the Conservative Party with steering a globe-spanning conflict to a successful conclusion. Shapps’s warning was, unfortunately, merely a description of objective reality. We are on the brink of a conflict for which Britain is woefully unprepared."

I think he correct and it would seem it would be a lot stranger not the mention it at the stage.

It does remind me of the run up to the invasion of Ukraine where the US and UK were clear that the intelligence all showed that an invasion was imminent. We saw a lot of similar denialism at the time but it did prove to be a mere statement of reality.

After everything we have been through in the last few years, it is really not a nice thought that this was not an unfortunate blip after which we all will return to our previous lives but actually we can reasonably look ahead to much worse on the horizon.

I personally think it is best to accept and prepare though. It's going to be very hard.

This is most certainly the thinking.

It's preparing Europe for a post NATO world where the US disappears as a world force.

It would create a massive political vacuum and that's always destabilising.

personally think it is best to accept and prepare though. It's going to be very hard.

But what would this look like for us? Is it a case of more proxy wars or a direct conflict that becomes a world war? How would that be fought between superpowers?

@tandt5 I won't be clicking on any random links, thanks but discussions (no agreements or assurances) about east Germany to the USSR are totally irrelevant and completely misrepresent the situation

People who parrot "promise never to expand NATO" always miss the points

The conversation was only that
The conversation was in the context of the reunification of Germany
The USSR doesn't exist anymore
Countries CHOOSE to join NATO.

I wonder why some people forget these bits.

By that premise if Mexico one day decided to join say Chinese military alliance (all completely made up for illustration purposes) United States should be completely fine and chilled about it. After all Mexico is free country and can choose their path.
Somehow I think that would never be allowed to happen

By the way the link provided was not some random link, but from Der Spiegel.

It was a random link to me as you hadn't said what it was

Re Mexico. Eh? What does that have to do with anything, other than being one of the sound bites we see on Twitter 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣

It is difficult to pin down exact scenarios but I don't think we can rule out direct conflict. I also think it's likely our military is pulled into draining proxy wars.

From the non military side I think we need to be prepared for horrendous supply shocks and things like cyber warfare. So I think there is a lot of work to do to build up the resilience of our infrastructure and our population which is diminished with the ongoing effects since 2008, followed by Brexit, pandemic and the Ukraine war.

So my personal preparations are in the realm of looking at household and community resilience. (I am not a prepper with freeze dried foods and ammunition in the basement or anything!)

It's just such a shit world and future to contemplate. I feel thoroughly depressed about it