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AIBU?

Share your dilemmas and get honest opinions from other Mumsnetters.

Original poster

To ask if you think there will be a Tory Leadership change before the election

79 replies

Fieldofbrokenpromises · 07/12/2023 11:02

I never thought the Tories would elect Boris as their boss so my crystal ball is fucked.
Do you think the Tories would risk a change of leadership?

OP posts:
AnneLovesGilbert · 07/12/2023 11:02

No

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 07/12/2023 11:03

It would be interesting purely from the perspective of seeing who would throw their hat in the ring, given that they wore a hole in the bottom of the barrel the last time around.

EzraJones · 07/12/2023 11:04

No, seems more likely there'll be a leadership contest once the Conservatives are kicked into touch at the next GE.

heldinadream · 07/12/2023 11:07

I don't know I think there might be.
I seem to have reached some kind of place (madness probably) where I look favourably at Gove.
Clearly I've lost the plot.

MaryMcCarthy · 07/12/2023 11:08

They don't have the numbers to force a vote of no confidence, and even if they did they wouldn't have the numbers to vote it through the Commons.

Braverman and her ilk might think the only way to win the election is on immigration and culture wars but there are still enough rational Tories around to prevent an election being contested purely on those issues.

They'll lose whatever happens, obviously, because what they've achieved in 13 years is starkly apparent to voters.

ilovesooty · 07/12/2023 11:08

No idea but I doubt if it will make any difference anyway.

Cattenberg · 07/12/2023 11:10

Well Gove did strengthen animal welfare legislation, so he actually achieved something positive. Let’s not talk about schools, though.

ElleLeopine · 07/12/2023 11:10

I really don't think that they could get away with another leadership change. It should go straight to a general election now.

KitchenSinkLlama · 07/12/2023 11:12

I don't think Sunak will be PM at the next election because I don't think he will stand for re-election as an MP. I think he is done with politics. He has achieved what he wanted for himself and his cronies. He knows that in 2024 it will be a Labour government so nothing in it for him.

I see a leadership election in the new year.

Rouleur · 07/12/2023 11:13

If there are more resignations, then yes, or maybe he will just throw in the towel and call an election to scupper the chances of his colleagues in the cabinet who are currently lining up to stab him in the front.

Cattenberg · 07/12/2023 11:13

I would like to see a change in the Labour leadership before the next General Election. My impression of Keir Starmer is that he’s competent, but a bit of a fence sitter.

Original poster
Fieldofbrokenpromises · 07/12/2023 11:17

Cattenberg · 07/12/2023 11:13

I would like to see a change in the Labour leadership before the next General Election. My impression of Keir Starmer is that he’s competent, but a bit of a fence sitter.

And I’d love just one thread about the Conservatives that didn’t veer into “but Labour” but we can’t all have what we want 😂

OP posts:
the80sweregreat · 07/12/2023 11:17

Cattenberg · 07/12/2023 11:13

I would like to see a change in the Labour leadership before the next General Election. My impression of Keir Starmer is that he’s competent, but a bit of a fence sitter.

I agree, but many mumsnetters don't agree with you or me

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 07/12/2023 11:19

Labour changing leader right now with the Conservatives falling apart at the seams would be the biggest electoral own-goal imaginable... so it can't be ruled out.

ACynicalDad · 07/12/2023 11:29

I can't see either party changing before the next election. I think the Tories will come back up a bit in the polls but ultimately lose. Who replaces Sunak will be interesting as several senior Tories could lose their seats (Hunt has said he doesn't want to stand as leader again but could go) and Penny Mordaunt come off the top of my head as ones that will probably go. But it's not just the candidates but the backbenchers that will vote - sadly there are some crazys in safe seats that will have a big say on the next leader. I'd no more like an extreme tory in opposition than an extreme like Corbyn; many people felt they had no choice last time.

EzraJones · 07/12/2023 15:33

XDownwiththissortofthingX · 07/12/2023 11:19

Labour changing leader right now with the Conservatives falling apart at the seams would be the biggest electoral own-goal imaginable... so it can't be ruled out.

This.

I imagine it's why Starmer (tried) to stand firm against the resignations over Gaza.

LlynTegid · 07/12/2023 16:11

A confidence vote perhaps, but if so it will be defeated. So no.

SnapdragonToadflax · 07/12/2023 16:20

I don't think so, but I do think the General Election will be this spring. I reckon Rishi Sunak never really wanted to be PM and would like for it to all go away, so he can slope off to the business world and make the most of the contacts he's made while in the job. I very much doubt he'll remain an MP.

Not sure why Starmer being competent but fence-sitting is a bad thing? It'll be a novelty to have someone intelligent and pragmatic in the role, the last few PMs have been an absolute shitshow.

Original poster
Fieldofbrokenpromises · 07/12/2023 16:29

To a casual observer with an interest in politics like me it seems inconceivable that the Conservative Party would change leaders now - but as I said, I didn’t foresee Boris as PM.
As for a vote of no confidence - I don’t think that whatever formal process they have in place will mean anything if they decide they need a change. If for example enough MPs and party grandees think Sunak must go he’ll just be invited to resign, as Truss was.

OP posts:
stepintochristmas1 · 07/12/2023 16:31

Going by the history of this lot the chances of them having another squabble , I'd say the chances are quite high ..maybe Feb .

EasternStandard · 07/12/2023 16:31

the80sweregreat · 07/12/2023 11:17

I agree, but many mumsnetters don't agree with you or me

Show quote history

I don’t rate him particularly but I don’t think there’s much possibility of a change pre GE

Original poster
Fieldofbrokenpromises · 07/12/2023 16:33

EasternStandard · 07/12/2023 16:31

I don’t rate him particularly but I don’t think there’s much possibility of a change pre GE

Show quote history

Why do people always want to discuss Starmer on every thread about the Conservative Party?

OP posts:
EasternStandard · 07/12/2023 16:34

Fieldofbrokenpromises · 07/12/2023 16:33

Why do people always want to discuss Starmer on every thread about the Conservative Party?

Show quote history

I really don’t think it’s on the cards so it stuck out as very unlikely

On your op I’d say probably not.

Cosywintertime · 07/12/2023 16:34

Yes, I think they will. I don’t think sunak has the gravitas or charisma to take them through an election and they know it. So I would estimate by early spring they make a change.

Original poster
Fieldofbrokenpromises · 07/12/2023 16:36

Cosywintertime · 07/12/2023 16:34

Yes, I think they will. I don’t think sunak has the gravitas or charisma to take them through an election and they know it. So I would estimate by early spring they make a change.

Interesting - I wonder in that case who would have the gravitas and charisma - hard to see a unity candidate.

OP posts: