To ask if you think there will be a Tory Leadership change before the election

[Fieldofbrokenpromises]

I never thought the Tories would elect Boris as their boss so my crystal ball is fucked.
Do you think the Tories would risk a change of leadership?

As much as this is true, there is still a degree of wisdom in an approach that puts off a certain electoral defeat now, for a possible electoral defeat at some point later in time.

There could be any number of unforeseen circumstances pop up in the potential last 6 months of this term of government. It's unlikely any of it would provide enough leverage for Sunak to save his neck, but you just can't tell. Venezuela is sabre-rattling in Guyana's direction right now, and having British aircraft carriers sailing off to put tinpot nations back in their place tends to go down well with a certain demographic.

Again, I doubt there is anything that could happen to turn around his fortunes, but one thing is certain, and that is if he were to call an election in the next few months, his party are staring down the barrel of complete annihilation. Hopefully he's stupid enough to do it and we are rid of them sooner rather than later.

The defence budget has been cut to the bone @XDownwiththissortofthingX, no chance of sending troops anywhere.

Are there any British planes to fly off the aircraft carriers, or do we still lend them out to the US Marines?

I think the rabid right wingers (ERG, Braverman ect) will vote against Sunaks Rawnda bill, as will Labour,Lib Dems and SNP.

Which could leave Sunak very exposed. He only needs 29 (I think) votes from torys against him in order to loose the vote

I think One Nation torys will see this, and choose to vote with Sunak to stop either another leadership challenge,or what would be worse, for them, an election
I don't think a third unelected Tory PM would go down at all well with the public.

But who knows. Stranger things have happened.

Isn't that why Nigel Farage is on I'm a Celeb at the moment?

I think if the right wing of the Tory party start sending letters to the 1922 committee to trigger a leadership election or do anything else to trigger one Sunak will call a general election.

No, I don't think they will.

If Braverman has any fantasies about leading the Tory party she needs to give her head a wobble. She would lead the Tories to their greatest loss in history.

As a proposition, she makes Jeremy Corbyn look popular.

I assume that Grant "many names, many hats" Shapps starts every weekday with an episode of "Yes, Minister", and Sat and Sunday with an episode of "Yes, Prime Minister" - just to be prepared in case The Spreadsheet ever bears fruit.

I bet he'd quite like being PM for a couple of months haha.

If the election is late 24, then it wouldn't suprise me at all, given the parties recent history, if we had two changes of leadership !

Difficult one isn't it? Do they give up on Sunak and find a replacement in a pool of lightweights like him? There's no real need for it. Yes it's a mess but it has been for so long that no one can remember what a coherent government or tory party is. Do they keep their powder dry for an emergency and spring a big guy? Possibly. And if so who do you think the contenders might be OP?

I think if the right wing of the Tory party start sending letters to the 1922 committee to trigger a leadership election or do anything else to trigger one Sunak will call a general election.

That'll learn 'em !

You'd think not, but they'll happily drive children into penury and claim the country is broke, but simultaneously scrape together the money to galivanting around in the Gulf, or handing all sorts of god knows what to Ukraine.

AFAIK, one of them is still laid up in the marine equivalent of Halfords, and the other still has no viable air wing.

No

becuase I think those that feel they are in for a chance of become the next Conservative party leader know they can not turn things around quick enough to win the next election

they are eyeing up the following election and will come out of the wings the following day after the next election

Boris Johnson is the most popular Tory politican according to youguv.

Let me guess? With something like 20% approval? 😂

29%.

They should have included Idi Amin and Josef Stalin in the polling, just for added hilarity.

Yes but they didn't.

Yes.

Tony Benn renounced his peerage to be an MP and sit in the Commons. But if David Cameron renounced his peerage before becoming PM he'd have to be elected as an MP before he could become a PM.

Last Lord to become PM was Alec Douglas Home, and he renounced his peerage after he became PM, but had to be elected as an MP. The previous peer to become PM was Lord Salisbury, who served until 1902.But by the mid 20th C it had beome undesirable fo the PM to be in the House of Lords: "Advising George V on a successor for the ailing Bonar Law in 1923, Arthur James Balfour urged that the Prime Minister must be in the Commons, reinforcing the King’s own preference for Stanley Baldwin rather than the experienced, but aloof, Lord Curzon. In 1940 Lord Halifax emphasised ‘the difficult position of a Prime Minister unable to make contact with the centre of gravity in the House of Commons’ as a key reason for his reluctance to replace Neville Chamberlain, leaving the way clear for Churchill."

[[https://history.blog.gov.uk/2013/04/24/prime-ministers-in-the-house-of-lords/

They do seem to get behind the popular vote, whatever that is. Don't forget the Tories were complete toast before Johnson became leader. There was talk of the party being no more. People laughed at the suggestion of Johnson, those that knew him thought it absurd - but he got the votes, by hook or by crook. Farage seceded though and gave the Tories a go. Quite how that grubby deal worked. Perhaps we'll never know. He was seen dancing at party conference so it might be written in stone, even if he has never been elected as an MP. Lots of suggestion that he will be their next leader. If Reform campaign well they could again split the vote and be the death of the Tories, probably explains the Braverman rhetoric. No one likes Sunak, but after the Tories crashed the economy with the last membership selection and cost us billions - they'd probably be well to just back off. I do think there could be situation where you'll see Cameron as caretaker PM.

Yes there are ways round it. I don’t know though, in a leadership contest, which I am fairly sure there will be one, there will be a few who throw their hat in the ring.

braverman, mourdant, maybe Cameron, and a few long shots,.

who ever takes it though, in the face of a ge, the party will unite behind them, they maybe many things, but they aren’t turkeys voting for Xmas.

If there is, the only honourable course of action would be an immediate GE.

So, no bloody chance of this rabble doing that.

Boris Johnson was long touted to be a future Tory leader he was a proven vote winner even if he was disliked by many in the party May gave him the job he wanted because she was well aware how powerful he was within the party

the Tories have had their less popular times but they have not been about to fold far too many powerful people are behind them and until there is a party with a similar political stance who could replace them this won’t change but we’ll aware this was written about on social media and a few journalists but it’s just wishful thinking

as for Farage there is also a rumour he will want to push for PR campaign (and that is what he is a campaigner) something that the Tories do not support. How many will get behind him on this as many on the left support PR