Rwanda plan

[AdamRyan]

Was just reading Suella Bravermans thoughts on how to make the Rwanda plan work, which involve sending staff there to review claims and pulling out of all human rights and refugee conventions.

The plan has cost £140m to Rwanda so far, plus £££££ in legal fees and so far we've sent no-one and found out its illegal. I'm very baffled as to why the government are pursuing it, I keep hearing that "most people" support it. So I thought I'd ask:

IABU: It's a priority as it will deter immigration and the government should spend whatever money and time it takes to deliver this

IANBU: The government should focus time/money on other priorities instead.

@AdamRyan Some people will believe anything. However Labour will need to be clearer about boat curtailment or they will end up with unhappy voters too.

You're missing the point.

The Rwanda scheme is pissing away valuable effort the Tories needed to stay in power. Their absolute fixation on it will be a key factor in their losing the next election.

No one who wants a Tory victory would waste a millisecond on such a bonkers plan.

QED.

I don't think so. I think their best strategy is to stay out of the Conservatives chaos over what is actually a very small number and if they are going to talk about anything, talk about the 725,000 approved migrants last year and how to bring that number down.

Labour getting involved only gives the batshit plan credibility it doesn't deserve.

Hanlon's razor: "Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."

Safety of Rwanda bill 2nd reading in the HoL today with the vote around 10pm tonight.

I suspect that even if there were more legal routes into the UK, given that a disproportionate number crossing in small boats don't have a reasonably strong claim for asylum, they will continue to use illegal means of entry regardless.

given that a disproportionate number crossing in small boats don't have a reasonably strong claim for asylum

Around 74% of refugees would be granted asylum so it would cut the need for unsafe crossings considerably.

@AdamRyan I think the Red Wall seats will start to ask difficult questions when it gets nearer the election. Staying quiet for now is best. But it won’t work forever.

I think the type of voter in the red wall who will use boats as a decider are more likely to go reform than labour. Most red wall voters are traditional Labour voters and bothered about CoL rises and employment prospects, I'd expect/hope a good chunk will prefer Starmer to Sunak's conservatives given they only "lent" their vote in 2019 to Get Brexit Done

I agree with Labour's "unsexy" approach of reducing asylum claim processing times and going after the traffickers.

The Conservatives are desperately casting around for a wedge issue to try to win the election, but that's their problem not Labours. Labour are doing the right thing leaving the Tories to disappear in a cloud of infighting. I'm quite enjoying watching it now we are in the home straight of this government.

I think you can blame the Labour Party for having unspecified policies but scarcely the lunacy of the Conservatives who have too much. They have had 14 years to deal with migration; they just didn't care.

It's like the tax cut I may get in March. Too late. I am now paying record tax for shit public services. Also for record migration. Thank you Conservatives

To be fair, the example housing was meant for mixed use - similar to schemes in the UK -

March 2023
The housing [Braverman] visited is set to be offered to both Rwandans and asylum seekers, with around 25 per cent of the off-plan structures having already been privately bought.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11875951/Suella-Braverman-praises-beautiful-25-000-homes-house-asylum-seekers-Rwanda.html

The Open Democracy article says that 50 per cent of the properties have now been sold privately - still plenty left.

an undercover Open Democracy reporter posing as an international investor was told by the developers’ sales team that asylum seekers would not be housed there

The accommodation is not meant to be temporary so it would be for settled refugees rather than 'asylum seekers'. Why would the salespeople let on that a percentage of the development is earmarked for refugees anyway?

Ken Clarke today in the HoL

Lord Ken Clarke: " I always fear... about the risks of moving towards an elected dictatorship in this country. The sovereignty of Parliament has its limits, which are the limits of the rule of law... in a liberal democratic society such as ours."

https://x.com/Haggis_UK/status/1752026708876665022?s=20

@AdamRyan I think you really don’t understand that many Labour voters have not wanted immigration. They want to protect their jobs. Others like Braverman want to pull up the drawbridge. They have done well but no more.They want to protect what they have. The more the Tory dissenters go on and on about immigration, the more the working class voter in the Brexit areas worries and wants answers. They are not The Guardian readers of the universities and academic left. It’s a different mindset and it’s anti immigration. If Brexit taught us anything, it’s that half the country is easily led and intolerant.

🙄
No need to be rude.
Brexit showed me that what people want and what's in their best interests are not always the same. If people choose to vote on the basis of populist drivel then that is their choice.

The more the Tory dissenters go on and on about immigration, the more the working class voter in the Brexit areas worries and wants answers.

To the question "What the fuck have the Tories been doing for the past 14 years ?"

I was listening to a history podcast recently, about the shifting attitudes of Germans to WW2. Apparently the accepted consensus from 195- to about 1980 was that a giant spaceship landed in Germany in 1933. Took the country over, and then fucked off in 1945 never to be seen again.

The current narrative from Tory central seems to have been written by the same team. In 2010, a giant spaceship landed in Britain, some cunts did some bad things, and then in 2022 it fucked off leaving poor Rishi and his plucky band of resistance fighters to put things right

That's fascinating @SerendipityJane and explains why they don't seem to think they're in anyway responsible for the shit show thus far - and seem to assume the general public will just accept that.

I don’t think that those in the London bubble thought there was an issue with immigration ( cheap workers) until Brexit happened

@AdamRyan I didn’t think what I posted was rude. It’s just robust discussion which is perfectly valid. Apologies if you saw it as anything else. I think populist drive is dangerous. Look at the USA.

What is very clear is that we have voters who believe very simple rhetoric. Brexit demonstrated that. Few really understood the consequences as it related to Northern Ireland for example.

The simplistic idea that Labour will cure all the ills also gains a lot of traction. That everything must be the fault of the Conservatives is clearly wrong too. Obviously some things are but Brexit was due to a lot of agitation from what appeared to be a minority. Immigration agitation appears to be the same. It plays into fears and worries and immigrant people getting what the locals feel they don’t get. It’s everyone’s fault - the French, countries on the way to France, boat sellers, young people who won’t do certain jobs, the NHS being overwhelmed, no housing - the list is endless. Labour cannot possibly make all this go away.

Populists sow fear and division to make political capital. Brexit was a populist idea pushed by Farage (who strangely didn't stick around to make sure it worked, once he'd "won"). "Stop the boats" is just the Brexit movements ugly offspring, as immigration has increased post leaving the EU. It's being pushed by populist for personal power reasons rather than because they actually give a shit.

Not having a populist government in would help a lot. At this point I don't actually care who it is, just a government who are competent, sensible and care about the good of the UK over their personal power would be a vast improvement.

The simplistic idea that Labour will cure all the ills also gains a lot of traction.

I know. Once you train the public to think simply, then don't be upset when they can't accept the box set that are reasons for voting Tory.

@AdamRyan I agree but those ideals rarely last. Totally agree about Farage too but Brexit was simmering before he used it as his personal vehicle. The politics of personality ultimately fails. Johnson has demonstrated that. Teresa May in respect of Brexit probably was competent. She certainly saw the difficulties clearly. With Sunak it seems to be the tail wagging the dog. However Labour had the same issues during the 70s and beyond. Also politics is never served well by any party having a huge majority.

Not sure what your point is? What did I say that was an "ideal that rarely lasts"?

Populism by its nature picks a simmering issue and plays on it to cause division. That's why it's dangerous. Brexit wasn't a concern for most of the electorate until Farage et al. made it so. I'd hope most people are sensible enough to realise that now and steer clear of these emotive appeals.

I'd hope most people are sensible enough to realise that now and steer clear of these emotive appeals.

They probably are. Which is why you need to up the emotion of the appeals each time. The less thick of us might spot where else in the world that is going on too.

@AdamRyan Not your ideals! The ideals of populists!