Results like these at a general election would mean Tory annihilation

[noblegiraffe]

Says a BBC headline this morning.

Anyone else stockpiling popcorn?

Her policies were built on sand and flogging off the family silver and north sea oil revenues.

Tories (and much of Blairism) have continued what she started, even though it's not the 80s anymore.

Yes, and also if the Tories had a single decent candidate of the Alistair Burt mould they would have kept the seat. But they have all been evicted or left.

This constituency also incorporates the area that juts voted in a Tory Mayor so the Labour victor/firstcomer should be allowed to be satisfied.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/mar/29/short-history-of-privatisation

This. The original privatisations were about efficiency and giving ordinary people the ability to own shares. Anyone around then would tell you BT was alot more efficient after privatisation. It is subsequent government's who have sold to foreign companies (Cameron/Blair) and enacted pfi (Blair mostly) who caused problems. And not related effectively. And Majors disastrous rail privatisation.
And re housing, the population was very numerically stable in the 80s so no problem with renting or buying apart from a few brief years when interest rates were very high but house prices were still a much smaller multiple of earnings. That was caused by Blair rapidly increasing the population and bank of England keeping interest rates too low and loosening lending criteria so people borrowed too much.

I may have mentioned it before, there are by some estimates over a million empty homes in England.

There is not a housing crisis, there is a distribution of housing crisis.

If Braverman wants to do something about it she can. She's the Home Secretary if I remember rightly? How come were still blaming the Labour party when the Tories have got an enormous majority and have been in charge forever.

Looking forward to a last desperate attempt by the daily mail, accusing Keir Starmer of being the illegitimate son of Karl Marx or an East German spy during the cold war before the next election.

Yes if Braverman or any of the tories blame Labour for not being able to enact their policies that is even more reason not to vote for them - what is the point if they're so powerless?

Because Labour will organise everyone they can to stop whatever might be good for the country. Labour and LibDems want a mess because it will get Tories out.
Even if they get it through Commons HoLords will stall it.

You know the Government have a majority in the HoC right?
They can pass whatever they can agree on amongst themselves (not a lot).

Crazy times weren't they ? We came back to the UK in 2001 and were amazed at the amount of tax credits handed to us despite us both working. They would literally pay our ( hefty ) mortgage payment each month. As well as the child trust funds etc. I doubt times will ever be so generous for future young parents, although the tories do seem to have increased benefits far more than I ever expected.

Labour and LibDems want a mess because it will get Tories out

So the Tories complete fuck up of the UK is the fault of Labour and Lib Dems, despite the huge majority the Tories had in 2019? Right. That makes sense.

Shall we examine the by-elections in the past 2 years in detail?

Old Bexley and Sidcup - Con hold. by-election occurred after the death of a popular constituency MP, other parties respectfully did not compete hard.

North Shropshire - Lib Dem gained a seat that has always had a Tory MP in its nearly 200 years.

Southend West - Con hold - following the murder of the previous MP.

Birmingahm Erdington- Lab hold.

Wakefield - Labour gain

Tiverton and Honiton - Lib Dem gain

Chester, Stretford and Urmeston + West Lancarshire - lab hold

Uxbridge and South Ruislip - Con hold - note the swing to Lab was sufficient that if it were the same nationally Con would be in opposition.

Selby and Aintsy - lab gain

Somerton and Frome Lib dem gain

Rutherglen and Hamilton West - Lab gain (from SNP)

Mid Bedfordshire - Lab gain- biggest ever swing?

Tamworth Lab gain.

What we have is Labour gaining seats from the Conservatives in the red wall and the shires. Lib dems gaining seats from the Conservatives in the SW.

The pattern is pretty clear.

The local elections this year had the same pattern.

The polls have had the same pattern for months.

An ostrich keeps its head in the sand.

@Janinejones it the interests of factual accuracy I would like to point out that the Conservatives are the largest party in the House of Lords, having more Lords than Labour and Lib Dems combined.

Additionally the Parliament Act requires that the HoLs votes through any legislation based on the governments election manifesto. The simple solution if the HoLs is blocking legislation is to call a GE and put that in ones manifesto. I wonder why Sunak has not done that?

The results of the by-elections tell us nothing about a GE outcome. The voters in the two constituencies have been smart - abstain, get an opposition MP for a year, if that person distinguishes themself, lend them your vote at the GE, otherwise revert to your usual brand.
Neither Labour nor Conservative or Lib-Dems give a damn about us plebs. An incoming Labour government would say that the coffers are empty and that they are obligated to follow Tory spending plans. Clegg showed what Lib-Dem commitments are worth, most of their big names are the same as last time around.
Where are the commitments to make foodbanks a thing of the past, to enable people to keep enough from the fruits of their own labours to better their life chances?

The results of the by-elections tell us nothing about a GE outcome.

Yes, this historic defeat is totally meaningless, particularly in the context of the zombie government, the fact they've been in power for 13 years and you can't see a doctor, your kids' school is falling apart and your mortgage is astronomical.

I'm sure it's just a blip. Along with the polling data.

If the options are to let the Tories walk back in for 5 more years, I'll go with Labour and take a chance. The Tories don't mind allowing the narrative of "they're all as bad as each other" as voter apathy is more likely to favour them.

Same here. Social care, health abd the environment are far bigger issues for me.

Voter apathy certainly didn't do them any favours this time round.

@noblegiraffe Tamworth saw 20,000 fewer voters turn out, in Mid Beds it was 24,000. By all means campaign for a Labour win, but most of those who stayed away will be people who voted Tory last time. They may switch at the GE, but in my part of the home counties, the blue candidate could abuse a guide dog in the High Street a week before any election and still get a landslide.

By all means campaign for a Labour win, but most of those who stayed away will be people who voted Tory last time.

I'm not campaigning for a Labour win. A poster claimed that voter apathy favours the Tories - certainly not in this case, as you say the Tories stayed at home.

The polling by the organisation that has correctly predicted 7 out of the last 8 elections on the other hand should worry the Tories - and it hasn't shifted for a year. No conference bounce at all this year.

Labour are wise to keep their powder dry until an election has been called. With a majority right wing and hostile press, anything they put out prematurely in terms of policy will either be nicked by the Tories or smeared in the media. Meanwhile, if you want to know about their policies, all you have to do is look them up.

Look... say what you like, but that is what people have been saying about mid Beds for nearly 100 years.

What is the Tory party going to change to get those disgusted ex voters out next time?

What does it tell us about the offering put up by the Tory party if that many of their voters can't be bothered to turn out?

Surely they would be clamouring to vote Tory again after all the wonderful things the government has achieved since 2010?

I'm talking about on a personal level. The NHS waiting list time - I've just recently waited 9 weeks on a simple elective surgery. Not bad in my book and no, no mortgage.

I'm sure others have noticed differences however on a personal level (which I'm talking about), I certainly haven't. They're all a shower of self serving shits in my opinion.

Is there any data backing up the claim that Tory voters abstained rather than changing their vote to Labour, Lid Dem or Reform?