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Results like these at a general election would mean Tory annihilation

702 replies

noblegiraffe · 20/10/2023 07:49

Says a BBC headline this morning.

Anyone else stockpiling popcorn?

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jgw1 · 20/10/2023 18:37

DuncinToffee · 20/10/2023 18:34

Is there any data backing up the claim that Tory voters abstained rather than changing their vote to Labour, Lid Dem or Reform?

Clearly most of the electorate know what a woman is and they will all vote for Sunak.

TizerorFizz · 20/10/2023 18:38

@Piggywaspushed Loads more incentive to vote at a GE. You get the MP for 5 years, not one. You are voting for the government you want. It’s not a protest vote or a protest abstention. I am not saying the seats will be reclaimed but the bloody nose yesterday might suffice. We shall see. If the Tories listened to David Liddington earlier they would have a chance. Sensible advice to ditch the in fighting and ditch the right wing policies.

TooBigForMyBoots · 20/10/2023 18:41

The next year will only see more Conservative voters abandoning the party. There will be more scandals, more resignations, more failed promises, more lies, more infighting, more money given to Sunak's family and possibly another Leadership battle.

They can't turn it around and the longer they're in power, the more votes they'll lose. They really will be lucky if they get enough seats to form the Opposition after the next GE.

Mumsanetta · 20/10/2023 18:47

I’d better start saving up for that VAT charge on school fees 😬

Piggywaspushed · 20/10/2023 18:50

People being interviewed on local news now:

' I am lifelong Tory. It's not just Nadine. The Tory party have disgusted me in the last two years'

'I went over to the other side. Tories do nothing for us'

'Too many houses being built with no infrastructure'

'Sunak is ruining our country.'

'I don't like the things he says '

'I like Alistair. He shows an interest in us'

DeeCeeCherry · 20/10/2023 18:50

Tory voters come out. Hatred division schadenfreude & an a crave for serfdom is a heady mix for them. Opposing voters just talk a lot online but dont get up in numbers. Same as local neighbourhood issues. Its only a few who will get up and try to make things happen. So I wouldnt get excited just yet

noblegiraffe · 20/10/2023 18:51

The numbers voting Labour were basically the same as the previous election and the Tory vote dropped massively.

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jgw1 · 20/10/2023 18:52

DeeCeeCherry · 20/10/2023 18:50

Tory voters come out. Hatred division schadenfreude & an a crave for serfdom is a heady mix for them. Opposing voters just talk a lot online but dont get up in numbers. Same as local neighbourhood issues. Its only a few who will get up and try to make things happen. So I wouldnt get excited just yet

Yup, very droll.

jgw1 · 20/10/2023 18:54

noblegiraffe · 20/10/2023 18:51

The numbers voting Labour were basically the same as the previous election and the Tory vote dropped massively.

The reason for that is quite clear. Starmer is so dull he had sent all the Tory voters to sleep, and singularly failed to inspire them, so they stayed at home.

overtaxedoverworked · 20/10/2023 18:58

@DuncinToffee Only that tens of thousands of voters stayed away - I'm assuming that those keen to show Rishi a bloody nose would make the effort to vote.
The Conservatives are past masters at being chaotic and split between general elections, but their discipline shows every five years - Labour in particular seems to pursue tall-poppy battles when it would be better to show a unified front.
From a historical perspective, PMs seem to be heading for a loss when they focus more on accumulating airmiles because they can't deliver any improvements at home, but the opposition have made a lot of unforced errors.

jgw1 · 20/10/2023 19:02

overtaxedoverworked · 20/10/2023 18:58

@DuncinToffee Only that tens of thousands of voters stayed away - I'm assuming that those keen to show Rishi a bloody nose would make the effort to vote.
The Conservatives are past masters at being chaotic and split between general elections, but their discipline shows every five years - Labour in particular seems to pursue tall-poppy battles when it would be better to show a unified front.
From a historical perspective, PMs seem to be heading for a loss when they focus more on accumulating airmiles because they can't deliver any improvements at home, but the opposition have made a lot of unforced errors.

Why wouldn't those voters who were keen to support Rishi's government be motivated to come out and vote for the wonderful policies, like stop the meat and 2 veg tax?

TizerorFizz · 20/10/2023 19:06

@Piggywaspushed These are people who voted presumably. The Labour vote didn’t increase so it’s just a vox pop. It’s meaningless. What matters is the abstainers. Are they coming back? We don’t know.

noblegiraffe · 20/10/2023 19:07

The Conservatives are past masters at being chaotic and split between general elections, but their discipline shows every five years

Like Theresa May's disastrous general election campaign that lost her her majority? Fox hunting and grammar schools?

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Piggywaspushed · 20/10/2023 19:08

TizerorFizz · 20/10/2023 19:06

@Piggywaspushed These are people who voted presumably. The Labour vote didn’t increase so it’s just a vox pop. It’s meaningless. What matters is the abstainers. Are they coming back? We don’t know.

Just reporting from the Brickface.

jgw1 · 20/10/2023 19:09

noblegiraffe · 20/10/2023 19:07

The Conservatives are past masters at being chaotic and split between general elections, but their discipline shows every five years

Like Theresa May's disastrous general election campaign that lost her her majority? Fox hunting and grammar schools?

Theresa May's campaign will look like a triumph in comparison to Rishi's of that I think we can all agree.

ArseInTheCoOpWindow · 20/10/2023 19:16

*overtaxedoverworked · Today 18:58

@DuncinToffee Only that tens of thousands of voters stayed away - I'm assuming that those keen to show Rishi a bloody nose would make the effort to vote.
The Conservatives are past masters at being chaotic and split between general elections, but their discipline shows every five years - Labour in particular seems to pursue tall-poppy battles when it would be better to show a unified front.
From a historical perspective, PMs seem to be heading for a loss when they focus more on accumulating airmiles because they can't deliver any improvements at home, but the opposition have made a lot of unforced errors*

😂😂😂past masters😂yeah, at being shite.

Only it’s usually Labour voters that stay home and suddenly now it’s Conservative voters🤨

TizerorFizz · 20/10/2023 20:06

As the Labour vote held up with a 44% turnout in mid Beds when the GE is 74.7% turnout, it is clearly a no show by Conservatives. We don’t know if they are still conservatives of course. The majority was pretty small so it’s anyone’s guess what happens in the GE. Will these non voters stay away? Will the missing 25% show up? (Unlikely) Are the non voters still Conservative?

Zonder · 20/10/2023 20:07

SkinnyMalinkyLankyLegs · 20/10/2023 18:31

I'm talking about on a personal level. The NHS waiting list time - I've just recently waited 9 weeks on a simple elective surgery. Not bad in my book and no, no mortgage.

I'm sure others have noticed differences however on a personal level (which I'm talking about), I certainly haven't. They're all a shower of self serving shits in my opinion.

On your sample of N=1 you say you have noticed no difference.

I've also lived under Labour and Tory, but not SNP. I've noticed a huge difference. As have my family and friends. You only have to look at the number of people needing food banks to see your little sample isn't replicated nationwide.

2010Aussie · 20/10/2023 20:10

Piggywaspushed · 20/10/2023 08:17

Thsi is not just about 'cycles'. Mid Beds has been Tory since 1931. This is a rejection of a corrupt, venal and self serving government , personified by Nadine Dorries.

The fact the Tories had no one decent to run in mid Beds or Tamworth speaks volumes'.

Those of us in the constituency were just astonished at the result - and quite tearful as well. I never imagined that I would live to see the day when the Tories were voted out. I met Alistair when he was out campaigning. Seems a nice chap.

Howpo · 20/10/2023 20:11

TizerorFizz · 20/10/2023 20:06

As the Labour vote held up with a 44% turnout in mid Beds when the GE is 74.7% turnout, it is clearly a no show by Conservatives. We don’t know if they are still conservatives of course. The majority was pretty small so it’s anyone’s guess what happens in the GE. Will these non voters stay away? Will the missing 25% show up? (Unlikely) Are the non voters still Conservative?

Funny how none of this was trotted out at Uxbridge?

Labour have had a 20% plus swing from the Tories over 3 by-elections since the summer.

People will vote at the next GE based on lived experiences, GPs, NHS, Schools, roads, trains & economy (Truss) .... it's all gone to shite.

Piggywaspushed · 20/10/2023 20:12

2010Aussie · 20/10/2023 20:10

Those of us in the constituency were just astonished at the result - and quite tearful as well. I never imagined that I would live to see the day when the Tories were voted out. I met Alistair when he was out campaigning. Seems a nice chap.

He does. I think he will Go Far.

noblegiraffe · 20/10/2023 20:20

I can't imagine what it would be like to go from having Mad Nad to a functional human being as a representative.

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jgw1 · 20/10/2023 20:21

Howpo · 20/10/2023 20:11

Funny how none of this was trotted out at Uxbridge?

Labour have had a 20% plus swing from the Tories over 3 by-elections since the summer.

People will vote at the next GE based on lived experiences, GPs, NHS, Schools, roads, trains & economy (Truss) .... it's all gone to shite.

Edited

I find it important to remember that the swing away from the Tories in the Uxbridge by-election was large enough if replicated to ensure that they would be in opposition after a GE. Quite a triumph it was.

Piggywaspushed · 20/10/2023 20:24

noblegiraffe · 20/10/2023 20:20

I can't imagine what it would be like to go from having Mad Nad to a functional human being as a representative.

Amazing.

Somewhat disappointing for one-upmanship though. I see your Gullis, I raise you Dorries.

Angrycat2768 · 20/10/2023 20:25

OnlyTheBravest · 20/10/2023 16:03

It does matter for democracy. Labour did not win. They came first because of voter apathy, which shows more people are not happy with either of the main two parties.

Johnson basically won a huge majority because people didnt vote for Corbyns Labour. The Labour vote in the Red Wall collapsed. The Tory vote went up by a small amount. He still got a huge majority and went on about what a huge victory it was. I mean, there is always the chance Labour will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory but...