Results like these at a general election would mean Tory annihilation

[noblegiraffe]

Says a BBC headline this morning.

Anyone else stockpiling popcorn?

Mother Theresa WAS a terrible person though.

20,000-25,000 people died. Some would have, but there's no reason for that many people to have died at all

Maybe it is just collateral damage to you?

@genesis92

She was.

Verdan - you have missed the point. None of the parties are going to address these problems. Too structural, profound and deep-rooted. Tinkering is what's on offer plus a spot of class-warfare and more of the same: tax and spend. I'd expect Starmer to extend the vote to 16 and 17 year olds in order to ensure Lab stay in power for a very very long time. The future of the UK is bleak.

DuncinToffee - 10,000 people die each year from flu. Strangely flu disappeared for a few years.

Much of the cost to the government of immigration is in hotel bills. If they changed the law and policies so asylum seekers could work whilst their claims were being considered and/or processed those claims quickly then the cost would be less.

They still have to live somewhere, so where do you find the money (and land, and builders) to build the tens/hundreds of thousands extra homes needed for them, plus healthcare, education, social services, training, etc., so they can enter the workplace? Bunging them in hotels is actually probably the cheaper option, especially as some will end up being moved abroad!

The bookies are quite often on the money. Check out the current odds for Tory and Labour GE wins.

Not always.

This is what we in the biz call 'completely wrong'. In fact the Electoral Calculus aggregated polls have correctly predicted 7 out of the last 8 elections, and accurately predicted the 2019 Boris majority.*

I can find sources that also say the opposite though? In general, conservative points have been under predicted and Labour over predicted. The brexit poll got it wrong, and no one expected Donald Trump to win.

I have no doubt Labour will win, and I'm fine with that. I'm just saying it wouldn't surprise me it wasn't as massive a majority are lots are expecting.

Yes @Teentaxidriver going on about thatcher is pathetic ( and actually the country was better run then anyway), its as if voters in the eighties had blamed problems on Churchills government (which I don't remember happening). And you are right no party has put forward policies for deep seated problems that people care about, just go on about banning smoking and cutting VAT on school fees. So depressing.

I have been concerned that all the

"I'm not going to vote they're all the same" "I'm politically homeless so won't vote,"
"I can't vote Tory because look at the state of everything, but Labour don't know what a woman is"

laissez faire voters who are prepared to leave the election of the next government to others might help the Tories, but in these two by elections it looks like the Tory vote that stayed away.

Absolutely. That's what Jonathan Ashworth stressed in the BBC studio after the results.

@genesis92 the accuracy of that particular poll aggregate is a matter of record. It doesn't matter what other polls have said. Electoral Calculus have had Labour on for a major win, with no shift in polls for a year now. I have no doubt that the polls will tighten because they always do, and I don't particularly want any party to have a stupidly massive majority. I want PR. But anyone thinking the Tories are coming back to win is delusional, unless Labour does something stupendously awful and stupid in the interim.

Let's face it, if/when Labour win it will only be because they "aren't the Tories" . It will be nothing to do with them being a spectacular opposition.

We have unaffordable rents and low wages which has obviously caused very high Housing Benefit bill.

Who sold the council houses and crushed the unions?

We have human shit on our beaches and hose pipe bans in summer because privatised water companies gave "profits" to shareholders rather than invest in infrastructure projects.

Who sold off our water?

There are several other parties who also "aren't the Tories".

Yep.

Both Labour and Conservative governments lose mid-term by-elections and results can't be extrapolated to the next General Election plus turnout was low.

But one of the kisses was the biggest swing ever in a by election. So even if turnout was low it’s saying something.

Who are you going to vote for then @Teentaxidriver?

And can they win in your constituency or will it be a wasted vote?

@Teentaxidriver I am at a loss to understand what you are accusing me of, given that what I posted re Electoral Calculus is simple fact.

There are several other parties who also "aren't the Tories".

Oh come on.....everyone knows other parties are wasted votes if you actually want the Tories out.

Kisses?!’ By-election!

Spot on.

As a housing worker when Blair was elected, I, and colleagues, expected to see some reduction, if not a complete withdrawal of the Right to Buy. It didn’t happen, and all those thousands of extra graduates the same government encouraged into universities expected to earn enough to buy a home. That worked well, didn’t it? Many are paying so much in rent they can’t afford to buy, and social housing in many places is as rare as hen’s teeth.

Don’t expect miracles!

Low turnout usually benefits the Conservatives. It's highly significant that, in such a staunchly Tory constituency which they knew was in danger, they couldn't bring themselves to go out and vote Tory.