Results like these at a general election would mean Tory annihilation

[noblegiraffe]

Says a BBC headline this morning.

Anyone else stockpiling popcorn?

We can only hope. I am wondering just how many current Tory MPs will actually stand again.

Never mind the election. Grabbing popcorn for this thread.

Hoping it holds up until next year. But I’m sure Sunak will continue to be useless and horrible so very much looking forward to election season!

We need to bloody get on with it. I can’t believe this shower have been allowed to continue in government after all the shit they’ve done.

Those of us old enough to have been around a while know that things go in cycles. We had a conservative government under Thatcher and Major in the 80s/90s and then a Labour landslide in 1997. Then an extended period of Blair/Brown and then back to Conservative. Now things are swinging back the other way.

Hurrah

It’s the hope that kills you.

What's going on? Someone? Anyone? I don't understand politics, not through lack of trying. But are the Tory bastards on their way out?

Source

Thsi is not just about 'cycles'. Mid Beds has been Tory since 1931. This is a rejection of a corrupt, venal and self serving government , personified by Nadine Dorries.

The fact the Tories had no one decent to run in mid Beds or Tamworth speaks volumes'.

The readers of the daily mail are going through all the stages of grief at the same time. Its delicious to read.

This is the graph that goes with those stats. It's #JustForFun because any good psephologist would tell you that you absolutely can't extrapolate by-election swings like that, but it did give me a smile on a grey morning.^^

Tories were heavily defeated in two by elections yesterday in England. If the results were replicated in a General Election, we’d have a Labour government and the Tories wouldn’t even be the official opposition.

Does anyone know what if any likely changes Labour would make to UC if they won the next general election I can’t find anything online but wondered if anyone knew

I'm here for that. 🌹🌹

It’s going to hinge on the Tory vote coming out. They might in a general election. They just stayed at home in these by elections it appears. So it’s difficult to look at swing in these seats and then say a GE will see the same. These seats were lost because of dreadful Tory MPs. Their supporters decided not to vote in large numbers. 44% turnout in mid Beds is very low. It was 74% at the GE. Although we don’t really know what will happen with turnout at a GE, 44% would be almost unheard of. It will be interesting to see what does happen but projections based on low turnout in a by election are dodgy to say the least.

Labour have to keep a steady ship. Complacency is the real danger. Don't let's forget the left's talent for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory....

I don't think that much will change, money wise. They want to simplify searches for work.

https://labourlist.org/2023/01/labour-will-fundamentally-reform-uc-to-simplify-the-system-ashworth-says/

Agree. Plus this country has a track record of voting against its own interests.

The Tories are so bad that even this useless Labour leader and his band of misfits can win. That is how bad the standard of politicians in this country is.

It’s not quite the celebration you think it is. This country is doomed to the trajectory of terminal decline. No stopping it now.

The biggest risk with results like this is complacency, that the message becomes that a Labour landslide is a full gone conclusion. Turnout would’ve been low here, especially amongst Tories, since there was nothing really at stake. If Labour voters don’t turn up for the GE because they already think it’s won then the final count may be a lot closer.

@Worriedaboutc With uk borrowing being so high I doubt Labour will be making any concrete benefits promises. One thing they need to be very careful about is promising expenditure current Tory voters think will make them worse off. Labour needs their votes. It cannot frighten them. We already have high taxes when compared to our historic levels, so the Tories will hit on any Corbyn like uncosted spending wish list. The Labour manifesto, when published, might say more but it could well be wishy washy and open to backtracking.

No-one seriously expects a GE would be the same but it’s a sure sign that plenty of people are pissed off with the current regime. The turnout is significant- dyed in the wool supporters would rather stay at home than vote for a different party. This was instrumental in the Labour victory in 1964 where old school Tories abstained in numbers.

Unless they pull off some sort of complete mood changing miracle things are surely only going to get worse for the conservatives as more time goes on.

if they want to avoid complete humiliation the best chance has to be calling the GE sooner rather than waiting til the last minute. It seems to more time passes the worse things are getting for them (which would be amusing if it wasn’t the future of the country at risk!)

Labour would be unlikely to do anything radical regarding upgrading benefits but are unlikely to make things worse.

The tories will continue punishing the poor until the end of time.