Universal basic income and what it may look like

[porkpiesinthepark]

I've been thinking for a while about the criticism of UBI and I think it's due to people not being able to imagine the government trying to 'match' peoples wages. In my opinion, it never will but there will be alternatives to what we have now, which will be able to offer something better.

So say the UBI is £1000 a month for a single person.
We could change the housing market to allow much more public housing with rents set at an affordable level, much more stability, no private landlords and the option to customise/ change your home. Let's face it, home ownership is out of reach for the majority at present. I don't find people are dying to own their own homes but desperate to be out of the instability of the private rental market, out of parents houses, out of house shares etc. If you could offer the next best thing to owning your own house, I think people would go for it.
There would be much more community linked to people having extra time due to not working or not working as many hours. Now, not having enough to do in the day is bad but most people have these huge dreams for retirement and this would just allow them to do some of these things now instead. Also more volunteering, looking after elderly relatives etc.
I don't think that private car ownership would be a thing. There would be a big system like Uber who you could call rides on. There would be a cheaper option, say if ten people wanted to go to the city centre at the same time, they would have to walk to a hub and then the van would pick everyone up, like public transport but based on demand. It would be a status symbol to be able to call a car out just for you.
I think a lot more people would wfh getting the cost of transport and childcare down. Schools might even go remote, as there wouldn't be both parents working and so in theory they could help facilitate the lessons. Then teachers would have small classes of Sen kids like mine, key workers and vulnerable children. Kids would interact with others through volunteering groups with parents, or just playing out as there would be less cars and more parents around to keep an eye on them.
People will either hate this vision as it's so different to what we have now. Or they will like some parts. But what we have now can't continue.

Gosh you’re cranky. So you think this is it and we’re snowballing into terminator 4?

I figured you weren’t exactly happy about layabout Stacey

🤣

Layabout Stacey going to be layabout Stacey, with or without UBI

there would be much more community due to people not working or working less hours ummm, yeah like sooo many beneficiaries now who do so much for the community 🙄 nice idea, but this would just make everyone lazy and give zero incentives for people to even bother working or striving for anything. Terrible idea

Ha! Fair point. I am cranky, I'll take that. Apologies.

Half term took a toll. 🤣

Yes I think actually things are going to change much faster and in ways that nobody can really anticipate yet. It's the acceleration of change that I think people don't really appreciate, we're in the final curve of exponential growth of computer power towards the singularity and nobody knows what will happen.

The only thing that's reasonably certain is that in 20 years things will be nothing like they are now, the rate of change will be something humanity has never dealt with before and personally I think we are not well equipt to deal with it. And I find it frustrating that people are dismissing it, and that others are going a bit bonkers about it just because it's been in the news recently but without understanding it (not that anybody does really - that's the problem!!). Especially when computer scientists have written books about it and warned since the '90s at least, so it's not a surprise. People will squabble and become polarised, instead of focusing on what is happening and what to do in a pragmatic way.

Yeah, so I am still waiting on my flying car, robot maid, and easy button pushing job with a super smart computer to do all the thinking.

I’ve got Alexa, that listens to me about half the time, a surly teenager taking my McDonald’s order and getting it wrong more than they should, and a gps in my car that dumps me 9n the middle of nowhere on the regular.

Ask the 2 lawyers if they’re worried about AI replacing them any time soon https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-65735769

Or the soldiers who outsmarted their robot with a somersault and a cardboard box if they’re worried

https://www.businessinsider.com/marines-fooled-darpa-robot-hiding-in-box-doing-somersaults-book-2023-1

Layabout Stacey going to be layabout Stacey, with or without UBI

Stacey and her ilk will be around whatever happens, as they always have been, until the human race no longer exists. This is a distraction. Let Stacey cultivate her giant arse and focus on what matters.

Yeah, so I am still waiting on my flying car, robot maid, and easy button pushing job with a super smart computer to do all the thinking.

The "super-computer" in the Science Museum when I was a child took up a huge room. Now we each have a computer more powerful than that which we carry everywhere in a pocket.

Technology is doubling in soeed and capacity exponentially. Plot that graph and then watch where the line goes.

Ray Kurzweil and others wrote books on this and plotted out the graphs in the 1990s. This is coming, it's been known for a very long time.

Nobody knows how it will play out but it will be a time of immense change, for better or worse, and denying that fact won't stop it being true.

I feel like I should add #notallstaceys in defense of the non layabout Staceys in the world! 🤣

🤣🤣🤣🤣

I should clarify as well, to avoid being banned.

#notallstaceys

@Nepmarthiturn I spoke with various far more intelligent colleagues years ago about AI being able to do a better job than myself. They all dismissed it. I’m in 2 minds, obviously AI will be powerful, but I think the current media hype is a bit over the top.
But then a lot of the basic AI being used has been around for years. Will these all powerful robots destroy us? I guess I can’t understand what is the supposed end of humanity?
I can’t see governments replacing all jobs with AI, at the end of the day humans need something to do

#99%ofstaceys

Well, that's the problem.

A few years ago people didn't think AI would be able to write essays and new articles did they?

Now it can. And make art and write music. And very soon will be waaaay better at designing architecture or giving legal advice or diagnosing medical conditions than a human. Could give tailored teaching to each child like having a 1:1 teacher. Nursing robots are being developed already. Robots are better at surgery than humans already... At the moment it's not great at lots of things, but this is what I mean about people not grasping the exponential growth part: in 2-5 years, it goes from laughable to "bye bye job".

So then what? Either you have this as a tool, and humans devote their time to leisure and family. But then this has to be treated as a public resource and shared. And also kept under control so that it serves purposes people want it to. And if you have 90% of the population with no work or income, what do you do to avoid total societal meltdown?

It will quickly become more intelligent than humans. Why would it want to serve humans or prioritise our needs? If it can rewrite its own code then... game over. This is happening already. Many who have designed the current (primitive) AI systems have no idea already how they are functioning or reaching their conclusions. So how can we control it?

Humanity continues with this competitive model, nation states, no global agreement even on stuff like climate so of course any attempt to control this or use it for good will not work, idiots will wreck it for everyone as always. Power hungry nutters. It will become an arms race and not used for the purpose of providing good living standards etc for everyone.

And on top of that you have the problem of inputs, at this stage where it still is determined by human input. E.g. one of the advanced ones was asked how to fix acidity in the oceans and its "solution" involved lowering the oxygen in the atmosphere to a level where all animals (including humans obviously) would suffocate, slowly and unpleasantly. It has no "frame of reference" of human values.

It is the scale and pace of the change that is coming that I don't think people want to acknowledge. Exponential, not linear. It could be harnessed to fix many of the problems we've created for ourselves and our planet and frankly I see no other way out of them now so without it we will be fucked. But if it is not used in the right way then we will be fucked.

So basically we are likely fucked. 😆

🤔😬🤣

Why not, it's been happening for years look at call centres, more recently self service check outs etc. And now AI is becoming intelligent, the sky is the limit. Particularly so many people working from home has taken the human element out of many jobs. It will happen faster than we think

@Nepmarthiturn i get where you’re coming from, but you’re take does seem a little worst case scenario. I work for one of the ftse 100…..why have they not replaced me already?
These huge companies with the money and manpower to change the way they operate….they’re tinkering, but not committed to AI.
power hungry nutters? Is that not the same as nuclear capability?

Economics. As soon as it's cheaper for a machine to do your job that will be the case. For all of us.

As the computers become faster and more efficient a human simply will not be able to compete. The exponential growth again.

It's hard to imagine things outside your frame of reference, so it seems impossible a computer could do a complex job with analysis, human interaction, judgement, etc?

What we are talking about is - because of the exponential curve - the equivalent difference between now and 2040, of the disbelief someone in 12th century would have if you turned up there and landed in their village in a helicopter.

Of course it seems unbelievable. But that is because the change is accelerating and is exponential, so our brains which expect our lives to be relatively similar to our earlier life or our parents' lives cannot compute it. Ironic.

It's the acceleration part that I think people aren't appreciating: how fast this is going to happen.

Sorry just had to do it, with the username. 😆

Sorry Stacey!

And no, not like nuclear. Because all nuclear powers know if they initiate something it will be fired back at them instantly and game over. So it does work as a deterrent.

It's clear who has done what, and what the consequences are. With this, it could be so different. Deniable. Hard to trace. Shutting down internet or banking systems, power grids, designing biological warfare, all kinds of awful ways it could be used.

It could also be used to crack clean hydrogen power, ways to farm without degrading soil, ways to provide good living standards for everyone with the resources left on Earth IF used for that purpose. But that would require global co-operation and it seems the UK can't even co-operate with its closest neighbours for mutual benefit, who most closely share our cultural values. So good luck getting North Korea, the US, China, Russia and others to put aside their ridiculous nationalistic crap and act in the interests of the human race and use this tech the right way. They won't. So it will likely lead to hideous things. 😔

I rather envy Stacey sitting on her arse obliviously.

It's been used to manipulate multiple "democratic" elections already...

I don't think people realise the extent to which AI is involved in their lives right now. Most people interact with some form of it every day without really consciously thinking about it. It will be more and more.

And yes, before anybody boring says this thread was about UBI, not AI, the point is that they are intrinsically linked. UBI is only being considered because of AI. Otherwise it would not work because labour is needed and even more people would decide to be Stacey. And when AI takes over you will have to have UBI of some form or there will be social meltdown. And because the only way UBI can possibly be funded is from the productivity gains from AI.

It's impossible to discuss one without the other in a meaningful way. However, I think it's unlikely this is how it'll all play out sadly, I can't see humans overcoming their tribalism and selfishness and concern about the size of Stacey's arse to make it work and not destroy each other instead. Bleak I know.

Time for me to sleep.

Not everyone is capable of that though. A lot of poor people are poor because they didn't do well at school. If you don't have the intelligence, you don't have it. Ditto starting a business, it's not something that everyone can (or wants) to do. I don't want to run my own business!

There are so many skills required in a start up, the most important skill is the ability to be a salesperson, if you have empathy it's difficult to be a salesperson.

I worked in sales for a year when DS was young as it fit in with school hours, I hated it. I wouldn't want to be self employed either and have to sort out my own tax and whatever else you have to do. I just want to be an employee and let someone else deal with all that 😂

Bananas wouldn't stay at £1.50 a bunch for very long if no one could afford it. The price would drop, as would everything else.

Well, no. They would stop importing them altogether, or they would be very rare and a luxury for the super rich.