Page 8 | We need to start talking about population decline

user4567890754 · 2023-06-02T21:15:10+00:00

The first signs of it are starting to show in the UK, with primary school closures. Secondary school closures will follow. [[https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/11158f12-0133-11ee-a364-04e704863f75?shareToken=5ef47b2b4776be376153089146c8bacf https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/11158f12-0133-11ee-a364-04e704863f75?shareToken=5ef47b2b4776be376153089146c8bacf]] Italy is a few years ahead of us. [[https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/01/plunging-birthrate-threatens-italian-schools https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/01/plunging-birthrate-threatens-italian-schools]] Japan shows where every country is headed - towards a crisis where they are on the brink of being unable to maintain social functions. [[https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/13/asia/japan-population-decline-record-drop-intl-hnk/index.html https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/13/asia/japan-population-decline-record-drop-intl-hnk/index.html]] And yet there are still people who think that we have a problem with overpopulation. It’s the opposite.

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 07:54

@Froffycoffee

Ridiculous, we won't always have the gov er have now and if there are huge huge issues I'm sure someone will say ah okay let's look at how we fund this. The issue now is that schools aren't paid enough per child, not that they pay per child.

No, falling rolls do impact school budgets because it's done by headcount's. That's the current model. A school still needs SEN etc regardless of the numbers & there's a huge crisis there currently. And yes a different gov could change it but the current gov aren't.

Not sure what the second part even means

I thought it was pretty clear so I don't really know what else to say...

BadLad · 03/06/2023 07:57

And whatever they are trying to do to improve birth rates is having fuck all effect. It is historically low and getting no better whatsoever. They do nothing to address the cramped conditions many families live in and companies just ignore the laws about overtime limits. I don’t think the JP government has the slightest clue about how to plan for its low birth rate.

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 07:58

@BadLad That is what Japan has done, I haven't made a comment on whether those policies were correct or not. For a while though they were considered by some to have a good model of dealing with the demographic shift. However there has definitely been a shift in how they see older people.

Famzonhol · 03/06/2023 07:58

user4567890754 · 03/06/2023 00:03

Immigration won’t solve the problem forever. Eventually every country is going to be putting in measures to hold on to their own citizens. There’s also an ethical question about accelerating depopulation in other countries by “stealing” their citizens.

And this does not solve the problem of overall global decline. unless we’re going to “close down” some countries and redistribute all the people. Even if we did that, Once the world population starts to fall, how are we ever going to get it back to replacement rate? In the longer term humanity will shrink and disappear, with increasingly hard and isolated lives for the survivors. I happen to think that the human race is a valuable and interesting part if planet Earth and we need to think about how we will protect it!

In the shorter term, Our entire economic and social structure is based on a growing population. It is going to have to adapt.

Just take housing, as one example. In Japan, there are right now many empty houses, indeed whole abandoned villages. This means house prices go down. In Italy they are selling houses for 1 euro. Great if you want to get on the property ladder, but what happens to those communities? What happens to the shops and cinemas and services now that there’s no one to staff them? And now we’re no longer building new houses. What happens to the construction industry? And how much of your pension is invested in housing or construction? What happens to people who bought their houses before prices collapsed? And that’s just one industry. Imagine this repeated across all industries and the kind of economic and social devastation that will result.

A falling population is the future. This is going to happen and we probably can’t stop it. We need to be planning now for how we’re going to adapt.

So we should keep breeding just to support the housing and construction industry?

Froffycoffee · 03/06/2023 07:58

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 07:54

@Froffycoffee

Ridiculous, we won't always have the gov er have now and if there are huge huge issues I'm sure someone will say ah okay let's look at how we fund this. The issue now is that schools aren't paid enough per child, not that they pay per child.

No, falling rolls do impact school budgets because it's done by headcount's. That's the current model. A school still needs SEN etc regardless of the numbers & there's a huge crisis there currently. And yes a different gov could change it but the current gov aren't.

Not sure what the second part even means

I thought it was pretty clear so I don't really know what else to say...

You're just being obtuse about the first point, purposefully so I expect.

Again I'm not sure what you're going on about with who wants what- I was saying humans will be gone one day and it'll be good for everything else. It's not a bad thing.

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 07:59

I don’t think the JP government has the slightest clue about how to plan for its low birth rate.

I agree with that. Tbh I think once the mindset has shifted you can't undo it. Obviously high living costs are a huge issue.

China now has the three child policy but I can't see that working.

orangegato · 03/06/2023 08:00

I think peoples main concern is too many old people compared to children. We have way too many people, just not enough young ones.

Maybe you should be able to choose to retire earlier at a reduced state pension, meaning the age does not go up for everyone, it’s a choice.

AmazonAmazibe · 03/06/2023 08:00

All these people saying ‘it’s villages’, it’s North East London too. I work with schools and I’d say a third of those I work with have reduced their PAN or have enough vacancies to have funding issues. Some have closed.

29 out of 32 London boroughs are reporting a fall in numbers. Over the last ten years the city’s birth rate fell 17%.

It’s creating a funding crisis near me, as schools are funded per pupil. One is 48% empty, overall it’s about 12%- a 12% funding loss. Many groups who are filling extra spaces are transient groups, such as clusters of Ukrainians or workers, who stay short -term

QuintanaRoo · 03/06/2023 08:01

Mumto32022 · 02/06/2023 22:46

Try telling any midwife in the UK that there’s a population decline… I’m pretty sure this isn’t UK wide. Eg major cities / towns

I’m a midwife and there is definitely a birth rate decline. All the birth rate stats from local hospitals demonstrate this. Hospitals which a few years ago were having a bit over 4000 births a year are now around 3700-3600 and dropping every year. Maternity depts are struggling to be allowed to recruit to a vacancy when someone leaves as the board say not as many midwives are needed/income is dropping as not as many women coming through.

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 08:02

You're just being obtuse about the first point, purposefully so I expect.

What's your excuse? Ignorance?

Again I'm not sure what you're going on about with who wants what- I was saying humans will be gone one day and it'll be good for everything else. It's not a bad thing.

Amazing! I'm sure we will look forward to more of your insightful contributions 😆

musixa · 03/06/2023 08:03

orangegato · 03/06/2023 08:00

I think peoples main concern is too many old people compared to children. We have way too many people, just not enough young ones.

Maybe you should be able to choose to retire earlier at a reduced state pension, meaning the age does not go up for everyone, it’s a choice.

It wouldn't surprise me if I never see my state pension. The age I can claim it has risen three times since I started working.

Allthegoodnamesarechosen · 03/06/2023 08:04

WrigglyDonCat · 02/06/2023 22:49

The purely logical standpoint would be to head out tomorrow and 'remove' 75% of the human population. I reckon about 2 billion is a sensible and sustainable world population.

Obviously morals and ethics get in the way of logic from time to time. For anyone with a brain, the obvious thing to do about an ageing population and/or a declining population is to figure out how to work with the demographic change. The incredibly dangerous and naive thing (hence it's what governments of all colours have done for decades) to do is to try and inflate the population to deal with a perceived shortfall of workers.

Spoiler alert, immigration on average is a net economic drain on society in the short and medium term and only reaches equilibrium economically after decades. Bringing in workers to deal with a shortfall is treating symptoms not cause and simply pushes the problem down the road to be an even bigger issue down the line.

Why does nothing work in the UK - let's have a think - oh yes, population has increased by around 14%, >8 million people, in 20 years - I wonder if that might not be a considerable influencing factor? The previous 14% growth took around 45 years (which includes the post-war rush for workers...)

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Yes.

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 08:05

Hasn't there recently been an increase in the number of people of working age who are not working? That might be fuelling the problem

There has been an unexpected "silver exodus" but many of those people have just retired early because they can afford it or due to ill health. Not sure how we can incentivise those back.

User135644 · 03/06/2023 08:05

Jk987 · 02/06/2023 22:25

My first thoughts are that there are less people choosing to live in rural Britain. Many schools in towns and cities are over subscribed. Net migration is high and that can counteract a low birth rate. I don't think there's an issue but maybe the government should encourage more people to move to the countryside?

Rural areas are generally full of older people. Class sizes in cities are huge.

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 08:06

It wouldn't surprise me if I never see my state pension. The age I can claim it has risen three times since I started working.

It probably a reality as healthy life expectancy has stagnated.

BadLad · 03/06/2023 08:06

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 07:58

@BadLad That is what Japan has done, I haven't made a comment on whether those policies were correct or not. For a while though they were considered by some to have a good model of dealing with the demographic shift. However there has definitely been a shift in how they see older people.

Fair enough. I consider that pretty much fuck all in terms of practical solutions. I’ve never read any commentary praising them for their efforts but I’ve seen plenty criticizing the LDP for its cluelessness. Obviously you and I read different sources. I wonder what will happen in 2026, which is a fire horse year.

Famzonhol · 03/06/2023 08:06

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 05:10

I'm sure people will start to realise the gravity of the situation in 2/3 decades when there'll be no retirement age, or pensions or any sort of adult social care as there won't be a good enough working population to support it.

It's bizarre people can't join the dots.

Fewer people means fewer elderly people going forward.

pennypingletonpenny · 03/06/2023 08:07

The same is happening to schools near me and yet most people seem completely unaware. Even those with primary school children.

I think it’s because only a few years ago, catchments really were tiny and there were stories in the local news about kids being offered places at schools (with poor reputations) in other towns.

But now you really can get a place at pretty much any school you like. Even some of the supposedly most sought after schools haven’t filled their places for 2023 entry. The stats are all there for anyone to see on the county council website and yet whenever I’ve mentioned it to anyone who’s worrying about school places they look at me in disbelief. And the local FB page is full of posts about “shrinking catchments” and “all the schools are very popular and oversubscribed”. It’s just not true anymore but nobody seems to believe it! It’s weird.

User135644 · 03/06/2023 08:07

WhyCantYourPartnerDoIt · 02/06/2023 22:27

We need more immigration. There's lots of young people who want to live and work here and would help to stabilize the population.

It's the great dichotomy though. Older generations don't want more immigration and will vote Brexit and Conservative and anyone else who pledge to stop it. However, because older people live longer - and the average age in the UK is so high - we need more working age people to look after the older generations.

WakeMeUpWhenGoodOmensIsBack · 03/06/2023 08:09

One thing that's not being realised is that many countries' populations will keep growing due to the inertia of previous growth. The EU fertility rate is about 1.5 children per woman over her lifetime, which should in theory be a recipe for decline.

But because of previous population growth in the 1960s/70s/80s/90s there are far more women in their 20s and 30s having babies than there are women in their 40s-60s becoming grandparents, who are in turn a larger cohort than the great grandparent generation who make up most of the people dying. Every single country in the world has got this baked in population growth, so even South Korea, with a fertility rate of less than one, can still see organic population growth in the short term due to the cohort in their twenties and thirties being so large relative to the cohort born in the 1940s and 50s.

But once you get one generation further on the tide will turn and it will turn quite suddenly. Nobody has found a way of making well educated women with good access to contraception want to have more than 2 children on average. Not Sweden, not Denmark, not France (who give huge tax breaks).

And in the wider long term view that's a good thing, because the world can't take 8 billion people with the lifestyles that they all aspire to, but it will take a lot of management. We have decades of warning that this is coming - we need to use it wisely.

musixa · 03/06/2023 08:09

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 08:06

It wouldn't surprise me if I never see my state pension. The age I can claim it has risen three times since I started working.

It probably a reality as healthy life expectancy has stagnated.

Yes. And having to work until such a late age isn't going to improve anyone's wellbeing.

Vegetus · 03/06/2023 08:10

Mumsnet is a hive of anti natalism and mass hysteria over climate change.

Rather than concern the idea of population decline will have most crying with glee.

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 08:10

Fewer people means fewer elderly people going forward.

Of course, but that doesn't help with the here & now...

CoalCraft · 03/06/2023 08:11

You're right, OP, but as this thread shows, people are in complete denial.

LlynTegid · 03/06/2023 08:11

There was a 'baby bulge' just after the second world war. Then another when those born then had children, then a third in the mid noughties. I don't expect fourth because of various factors.

The OP is right that population or more precisely birth rate decline needs to be talked about, not sure of the answers to the impacts.