We need to start talking about population decline

[user4567890754]

The first signs of it are starting to show in the UK, with primary school closures. Secondary school closures will follow.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/11158f12-0133-11ee-a364-04e704863f75?shareToken=5ef47b2b4776be376153089146c8bacf

Italy is a few years ahead of us.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/01/plunging-birthrate-threatens-italian-schools

Japan shows where every country is headed - towards a crisis where they are on the brink of being unable to maintain social functions.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/13/asia/japan-population-decline-record-drop-intl-hnk/index.html

And yet there are still people who think that we have a problem with overpopulation. It’s the opposite.

op is being deliberately over dramatic

Her points wider than London Schools though - the fertility rate my bit of UK is 1.4 - replacement level is 2.1.

Many young people born here leave for better prospects and don't come back and in pretty areas are priced out of accommodation by second homes and airbnbs. I was priced out of where I grew up in Midlands by mid late teens we moved elsewhere but couldn't have afforded to have kids there or as many as we did have or as young.

The ONS has total fertility rate - TFR as below replacement level since 1973 and TFRs have been decreasing year on year since 2012.

It's a trend that's been on-going for a while though - I suspect UK will rely on immigration to plug holes in workforce.

I have dc working in London restaurant, or did, so I guess they found him and others in same age group.

Brexit on this is a factor hence employers asking for two year visas so they can get the young, mobile, wanting to brush up
on English

As you say they can also lift wages, if it doesn’t combine with high energy costs and make it too difficult to keep going

Yes wages have definitely stagnated which isn't good

The problem is that London's economy relies on there being people willing to work for a pittance, live in HMOs etc. It was never viable long term.

Or we could all stop consuming quite so much whether it’s tat on Amazon or services generally? It is a vicious cycle.

Back to schools they are closing in Elephant & Castle area because of type of investment and housing

Speaking to someone who worked in a school there

There are still loads of EE around here in Greater London and they seem to be having dc.

Pjs the third and final way.

support them to their face but secretly seethe

And I call primary / early secondary school aged children “young”. Especially when it comes to their views on whether or not they’re going to have children!

What can I say… I’m sunbathing whilst recovering from a minor op and a little bored! 😂

Isn't it better if there are nit such huge classes.

I remember in 2000 my dds Y1 class was only about 25 which must be better in some ways

Or we could all stop consuming quite so much whether it’s tat on Amazon or services generally? It is a vicious cycle.

Wages haven't kept pace with house prices across large swaths of the country.

https://www.avtrinity.com/news/house-prices-vs-income-how-affordable-are-uk-homes#:~:text=Therefore%2C%20it%20would%20take%206.1,only%20risen%20to%20%C2%A333%2C000.

house price affordability is simply the number of times the average salary needs to be multiplied to buy the average house. For example, in 1983 the average house price was £26,000 and the average salary was £8,528. Therefore, it would take 3 times the average salary to buy the average house.
In 1993 the average house price was £56,000 and the average salary was £17,784. Therefore, it would take also 3.1 times the average salary to buy the average house.
In 2003 things got more expensive as the average house price was £125,000 and the average salary was £21,124. Therefore, it would now take 5.9 times the average salary to buy the average house.
In 2013, affordability took another hit as the average house price was now £165,000 but the average salary was only £27,011. Therefore, it would take 6.1 times the average salary to buy the average house.
In 2023 (figures from 2022), house affordability took another turn for the worse as the average house price rose to £280,000 and the average salary had only risen to £33,000. Therefore, it would take 8.5 times the average salary to buy the average house.

Cost of living which is discouraging many from starting families or delaying or reducing is being driven by housing, food and energy costs - not really tat on amazon.

I'd agree we all need to consume less but I don't think that's behind the decline in birth rates - I think it's much more the basics - lack of housing security , need for two wages and high cost of childcare.

I was referring to the comment about immigration. We can’t keep relying on cheap Labour from overseas. At some point we need to become more self sufficient using the pool of ‘talent’ we already have.

I was referring to the comment about immigration. We can’t keep relying on cheap Labour from overseas. At some point we need to become more self sufficient using the pool of ‘talent’ we already have.

Who else is going to pick up the jobs we could fill otherwise - if we're willing to pay and people are willing to come - we will rely on immigration because it is easier - we kick the issue further down the line - especially if we face a cliff edge rather than a more gentle slump in demographics.

Most Amazon tat is manufactured elsewhere any way - China has its own demographic issues - we still need doctors and nurses and chemists and care workers - all of which we doubtless will poach from other countries we paid to train them as we have in the past. I'm sure that was a thread a while ago about foreign teacher being offered huge incentives to teach here.

With an aging population we likely won't be consuming less health care - there may be a shift it what services people demand and may be some automation - suspect not as much as some predict - but there are enough poor politically unstable places in the world that mean UK looks a better bet.

It suits the multi nationals to have a never ending supply of cheap dispensable Labour as they need not invest in training or investing in the local work force, can get away with paying as little as possible and can make billions in the process. The total disregard for local communities and livelihoods is one of the reasons people voted to leave the EU. At least one of the main parties needs to address this, and fast.

The birth rate will resume naturally if people have well paid secure jobs, and comfortable homes to live in. Quite frankly if you need two full time jobs to just stay afloat the idea of having any further dependents is probably very unappealing. It’s easier to have a good quality life without the need for childcare or spending a fortune on kids that will exhaust what little resources you have left. The same is happening in Asia too.

other countries who paid to train them as we have in the past.**

I think the point is that some people are not willing to just shrug and bring more people into it

I don't think most people don't really consider this as when having dc, people are still having them after all. Your parents I assumed didn't mind?

I don’t think wealth tax really works well when that wealth is mobile.

Proper wealth is global.& mobile. As I said upthread targeting equity rich older people in order to inject money into the nhs isn't going to result in waves of older people emigrating. Where would they go? Will healthcare be free there?

The best thing to combat inequality would be for rich people to have more children than poor people.

do you have dc @Florenz? I don't think I saw your answer.

One DS, now 24 years old.

Do you mean a tax that would force some low disposal income pensioners out of their homes?

Or just take more when they die

I’m on a road with a fair few pensioners, widowed, low money who couldn’t pay it. But they have communities that care for them and I’d not vote to cause them to leave the area ten years early just for NHS funds

it doesn’t mean the end of civilisation- op is being deliberately over dramatic

🙄

One DS, now 24 years old.

Of course you have dc! no one will be shocked despite your posts 😆

Maybe a new colony. Don't want to fuck up someone else's country with our waste of spaces (unless the person is from a different country, then they can have them back)

Do you mean a tax that would force some low disposal income pensioners out of their homes?

Or just take more when they die

No one to be forced out of their homes. I think there should be a charge put on the home for care in the home (not as now for care out of the home) to be repaid after death. It will impact those inheriting (including myself) but I think that's a fairer system. Working people above pension age should pay a small tax eg towards h&s care, like the levy they scrapped as younger people will be paying NI a lot longer. the