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We need to start talking about population decline

792 replies

user4567890754 · 02/06/2023 22:15

The first signs of it are starting to show in the UK, with primary school closures. Secondary school closures will follow.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/11158f12-0133-11ee-a364-04e704863f75?shareToken=5ef47b2b4776be376153089146c8bacf

Italy is a few years ahead of us.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/may/01/plunging-birthrate-threatens-italian-schools

Japan shows where every country is headed - towards a crisis where they are on the brink of being unable to maintain social functions.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/04/13/asia/japan-population-decline-record-drop-intl-hnk/index.html

And yet there are still people who think that we have a problem with overpopulation. It’s the opposite.

The school with one pupil: how falling birthrates are killing village primaries

Four generations of Ruby Booker’s family have been educated at Skelton Newby Hall, an idyllic village primary school in North Yorkshire.It was the autumn of 194

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/11158f12-0133-11ee-a364-04e704863f75?shareToken=5ef47b2b4776be376153089146c8bacf

OP posts:
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13
musixa · 03/06/2023 12:01

AngryGreasedSantaCatcus · 03/06/2023 11:57

Question for all the posters that think humans are a scrounge on the planet and we aren't dying quick enough... why are you still alive?

There is no process for elective euthanasia in the UK.

SunnyEgg · 03/06/2023 12:02

Previously we had a population age range that was triangle

This is true but we can’t keep increasing the base of that.

So up next is the bulge middle like a snake that’s eaten something. The lower end of the bulge will be in a tough time but hopefully a column out the bottom will improve things

MrsSkylerWhite · 03/06/2023 12:05

Stalkedbyzombies · Today 11:26
Finding carers for the elderly is already a crisis situation and getting worse. That is why there is attention drawn to elderly not being discharged from hospitals for months because even though care packages are drawn up, there are not enough staff to implement them”.

Quite. Brexit.

Shall be 60 next spring. I’m doing everything I possibly can to stay healthy. Eating right, exercising, cutting back/out the alcohol, learning new things etc. because I dread to think what a godawful state social care will be in in 10/20 years, if it exists at all.

inamarina · 03/06/2023 12:15

Supersimkin2 · 03/06/2023 00:22

In Europe and US the problem is imbalance, not quantity, in
population.

Too many old people for too long requiring too much care. No way round it at the mo.

Once the Lotto gen have blown their house price jackpots on adult nappies, their DC and GDC are screwed. Plus the under70s are paying enormous taxes already to support them, so in technical
terms us workers are fucked coming and going. Many families have been starved out of breeding, cos Granny’s got all the money in property equity and that’s headed for the care home company HQ in India.

The answer is medical advances that deliver a health span closer to
lifespan. And machines to deliver care, not people who should get the chance to be productive in society. (Yes yes, of course carers are vital, but they’re not useful - there’s a difference.)

No one wants to admit that spending two decades of your life severely mentally and physically disabled might not be fun for you, but you’re- forgive the pun - literally pissing your descendants’ lives away too.

No one wants to admit that spending two decades of your life severely mentally and physically disabled might not be fun for you, but you’re- forgive the pun - literally pissing your descendants’ lives away too.

Sorry, but posts like this are the reason I personally struggle with the concept of voluntary euthanasia.
Sure, it’s all about letting grandma decide all by herself whether she wants to continue “literally pissing her descendants’ lives away”, no pressure.
She might not even be severely disabled, just elderly and in a care home and still enjoying her life - but let’s make her realise what a burden she really is, what a great idea.

SalviaDivinorum · 03/06/2023 12:33

But let’s make her realise what a burden she really is, what a great idea

And this is why effective solutions to the problem are going to be unacceptable.

All Brexit has done is throw the problem into sharp relief. Perhaps could do what Australia and Canada do - allow immigrants but only if in good health and can be self supporting so won't be a drain on public finances and services. That however is probably one of the things that many would find unacceptable.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 03/06/2023 12:33

It’s not a particularly attractive topic for politicians to tackle though

And that's precisely why all that will be done is tinkering at the edges - because it's not really something which people want to think about, and if they do the possible answers are likely to be unpalatable

Stalkedbyzombies · 03/06/2023 12:33

It's not right to say that the only solution is euthanasia. I mean, it will be legalized soon, we all know that, but uptake will not be universal and some people will rightfully have the right to object to it.

Stalkedbyzombies · 03/06/2023 12:36

The fact is that even my generation does not want to be burdened by elderly parents and elderly parents do not want to be a burden on their children either. I'm sure this will be even more unrealistic when I retire in the future. I may not want to be euthanised either and I may have high care needs and want a third party carer.

inamarina · 03/06/2023 12:47

hyggeb · 03/06/2023 05:10

I'm sure people will start to realise the gravity of the situation in 2/3 decades when there'll be no retirement age, or pensions or any sort of adult social care as there won't be a good enough working population to support it.

It's bizarre people can't join the dots.

Agree.

Puzzledandpissedoff · 03/06/2023 12:52

Covid was there to facilitate (population decline) but we locked down for 2 years to make sure we didn't

Admittedly lockdown was supposed to be to save our already-failed NHS, but it proved an interesting lesson in overall reluctance to accept that we're all going to die - seen at its most glaring when the BBC described the passing of a 93 year old woman as a tragedy, and it was remarked by some politician than "even one Covid death is one too many"

At the simplest level there's no such thing as overpopulation, since if resources are insufficient people will die and thus restore the balance. What's usually meant though is that population levels don't support the lifestyle many have come to expect, and the real debate concerns whether that's sustainable or not

inamarina · 03/06/2023 13:03

Phoebo · 03/06/2023 05:59

I'm saying overpopulation isn't caused by people living longer. That doesn't make sense, they were there first. UK birthrate is 1.56, which is probably a good thing, now the government needs to figure out a way to sustain the economy and not place more burden on it. Because all the taxpayers being born or imported will also get old and need care. I'd say that most childless singles or couples won't be the people putting burden on the system as they will also probably have enough money to pay for themselves (and have taken the least out). That would be an interesting piece of research.

I'd say that most childless singles or couples won't be the people putting burden on the system as they will also probably have enough money to pay for themselves

Pay who though? If there are not enough working age people around when today’s childless singles and couples are elderly - who will provide services to them?

Florenz · 03/06/2023 13:04

SalviaDivinorum · 03/06/2023 12:33

But let’s make her realise what a burden she really is, what a great idea

And this is why effective solutions to the problem are going to be unacceptable.

All Brexit has done is throw the problem into sharp relief. Perhaps could do what Australia and Canada do - allow immigrants but only if in good health and can be self supporting so won't be a drain on public finances and services. That however is probably one of the things that many would find unacceptable.

I don't think that many would find unacceptable. This is what most people want. The problem is that the few that would find it unacceptable have very loud voices and would go on and on about it.

SunnyEgg · 03/06/2023 13:06

SalviaDivinorum · 03/06/2023 12:33

But let’s make her realise what a burden she really is, what a great idea

And this is why effective solutions to the problem are going to be unacceptable.

All Brexit has done is throw the problem into sharp relief. Perhaps could do what Australia and Canada do - allow immigrants but only if in good health and can be self supporting so won't be a drain on public finances and services. That however is probably one of the things that many would find unacceptable.

I don’t think Aus or Canadian style would be problematic, it’s likely what many who are concerned over immigration are after.

It can be done but the problematic part for the U.K. is FOM for people is linked to goods. So we’re struggling to switch in a way Aus / Canada do not

You could use visas to plug gaps and / or use earnings as a measure.

Stalkedbyzombies · 03/06/2023 13:14

I'm open to moving to a place like Thailand or Malaysia and living in one of those lovely retirement villages which are a lot affordable than our ones in the UK. At the moment, it has to be fully independently organized and there are certain financial risks but if it became a route for elderly care officially recognised then it could work better than placing restrictions on migration criteria.

Irequireausername · 03/06/2023 13:18

It's not that there are too many kids, it's that there are too many elderly.

Say bye to pensions and most welfare, it's just not going to last.

Immigrants can't solve it long term sadly.

CeciNestPasUnPipi · 03/06/2023 13:26

HowNowBrownElephant · 02/06/2023 22:54

This, 100%

Another one in agreement here.

SunnyEgg · 03/06/2023 13:30

CeciNestPasUnPipi · 03/06/2023 13:26

Another one in agreement here.

To those agreeing with this what’s your preference?

To keep increasing population size without ever decreasing. Although you’d see other issues mount up surely

What’s the reality if we don’t decrease?

Maddy70 · 03/06/2023 13:31

Nature always balances. COVID was probably nature culling the old and weaker but governments interference reduced the impact

Thebestwaytoscareatory · 03/06/2023 13:33

Florenz · 03/06/2023 13:04

I don't think that many would find unacceptable. This is what most people want. The problem is that the few that would find it unacceptable have very loud voices and would go on and on about it.

That's the system we already have in place. If you don't have a job, family members who live here, enough money to support yourself / qualify for an investor visa or have any distinguishable talents you'll struggle to get a approval to move to the UK.

Many British people just don't like immigrants full stop (unless they're the right kind of white) and will be unhappy with any level of migration.

Either way, allowing more workers into the country wouldn't actually address the problems mentioned, it would just kick them further down the road.

The reality is the only true solution is to remove things from the top (where the issues lie), be that support, services, funding, or people. It wouldn't be pleasant whichever way it goes so obviously those most likely to be impacted by those sorts of changes will oppose it no matter what. Unfortunately, that means younger generations will just continue to be shat on and have even more opportunities removed from them.

luvvverly · 03/06/2023 13:41

We are constantly being told that humans are causing catastrophic climate change and that we have to reduce our carbon footprint. At the same time, we are being told there aren't enough people to support the elderly. And everyone gets old eventually so this becomes a population ponzi when countries need an ever bigger amount of people at the bottom to support the top (who currently own all the wealth and housing).

What will happen is that the people at the bottom will demand better wages and living conditions and the elderly will have to compete for scarce helpers by paying them more and allowing housing to adjust to be affordable. At the moment the older generation don't want to pay more for carers and also don't want cheap housing "my house is my pension" yet complain when there are no carers. If you make living unaffordable then young people will adjust by not bothering with things like having families.

SunnyEgg · 03/06/2023 13:48

The reality is the only true solution is to remove things from the top (where the issues lie), be that support, services, funding, or people.

We’ve just spent a large fortune on keeping the last of your options from occurring. Lockdown was very popular on mn and amongst various posters so I’d assume they’re not the reduce people believers.

It doesn’t have to be the other solutions although we are less likely to look after our own elderly in the U.K. than many other countries, maybe that will change (probably reluctantly). It’ll be younger people who do this though.

SalviaDivinorum · 03/06/2023 13:58

There's an interesting article by Dr Ezekiel J. Emanuel who sets out the problem with an increasingly old and infirm population. "Health care hasn’t slowed the ageing process so much as it has slowed the dying process"

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329/

Why I Hope to Die at 75

An argument that society and families—and you—will be better off if nature takes its course swiftly and promptly

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2014/10/why-i-hope-to-die-at-75/379329

DemiColon · 03/06/2023 14:14

Puzzledandpissedoff · 03/06/2023 12:33

It’s not a particularly attractive topic for politicians to tackle though

And that's precisely why all that will be done is tinkering at the edges - because it's not really something which people want to think about, and if they do the possible answers are likely to be unpalatable

I also think that when it gets right down to it, they don't really know what to do either.

As much as they might like to control how the global economy works, they don't. And globalism has made what politicians can do about that stuff even less effective than it was in the past. No national government has the power to change the way banking works, to do away with the concept of the constantly expanding economy, or profit as the goal of productivity.

Immigration is a stop gap, but it creates local problems in terms of absorbing new people and integrating them, even under the best circumstances. For some reason the left prefers to pretend that isn't a thing, while the right talks about it but has no real solutions. Plus there are all the ethical issues of what is essentially harvesting the best labour from other countries for our own purposes, the modern capitalist version of importing colonial labour.

And the population is unlikely to accept the answers. IN some cases for good ethical reasons, killing off the elderly is rightly something most will back away from. But we also are unwilling to accept a world where consumer goods are much more scarce, where cars are an unusual luxury, where people seldom travel abroad, and where we need to rely on our own workforce for things like agricultural production or caring for our elderly and children.

How many young people now looking at going to university and working in what is undoubtedly a bloated civil service, or academia, or as some kind of edi consultant or advertising position or whatever, would be willing to consider that where they are really needed is agricultural production? The vast majority would consider that work to be too hard and beneath them, though obviously it is ok for migrant workers or immigrants.

Endlesssummer2022 · 03/06/2023 14:24

It’s going to get much more difficult for working people very quickly. We must welcome immigration of working aged people until we can find feasible long term solutions.

‘10 million people in the UK are over 65 years old. The latest projections are for 5½ million more elderly people in 20 years time and the number will have nearly doubled to around 19 million by 2050.

Within this total, the number of very old people grows even faster. There are currently three million people aged more than 80 years and this is projected to almost double by 2030 and reach eight million by 2050. While one-in-six of the UK population is currently aged 65 and over, by 2050 one in-four will be.

The pensioner population is expected to rise despite the increase in the women's state pension age to 65 between 2010 and 2020 and the increase for both men and women from 65 to 68 between 2024 and 2046. In 2008 there were 3.2 people of working age for every person of pensionable age. This ratio is projected to fall to 2.8 by 2033.
Public spending and older peopleMuch of today's public spending on benefits is focussed on elderly people. 65% of Department for Work and Pensions benefit expenditure goes to those over working age, equivalent to £100 billion in 2010/11 or one-seventh of public expenditure. Continuing to provide state benefits and pensions at today's average would mean additional spending of £10 billion a year for every additional one million people over working age.

Growing numbers of elderly people also have an impact on the NHS, where average spending for retired households is nearly double that for non-retired households: in 2007/08 the average value of NHS services for retired households was £5,200 compared with £2,800 for non-retired. These averages conceal variation across older age groups, with the cost of service provision for the most elderly likely to be much greater than for younger retired people. The Department of Health estimates that the average cost of providing hospital and community health services for a person aged 85 years or more is around three times greater than for a person aged 65 to 74 years.

State benefits and the NHS accounted for just under half of government expenditure in 2009/10. With much of this spending directed at elderly people, their growing number will present challenges for providers of these particular services as well as for the public finances as a whole.’

https://www.parliament.uk/business/publications/research/key-issues-for-the-new-parliament/value-for-money-in-public-services/the-ageing-population/#:~:text=While%20one%2Din%2Dsix%20of,68%20between%202024%20and%202046.

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