Tories lose over 1000 seats in local elections

[noblegiraffe]

Which was their damage limitation number so when they lost 800 they could say 'we've not done as badly as we feared'.

AIBU to be cracking open the champagne while they try to figure out how the hell they can put a positive spin on this?

Satisfyingly the Tory party members who voted for Truss will include all the Tory councillors who lost their seats.

YANBU OP. Have another for all of us 🍾🍷

But of course the previous poster who said that Sunak had won a leadership election was mistaken, because he came 2nd in the only one he has stood in where there was an election.

A good example of that is how rapidly the Tory party got rid of Johnson and his Chancellor (whatever happened to the latter), once it became clear in 2021 that they had both broken laws that they had introduced.

Not many, since the gap between the Tories and Labour was larger in these local elections than any for about 20 years....

You are totally wrong on voter demographics. Lower turnouts favour Tories. Older voters are by far the most likely to vote in all elections .

And what's this online voting of which you speak?

They actually gained one on Basildon. The place where I work with people who can barely feed their children or themselves, the Basildon where people can no longer afford to house themselves and where food banks are struggling..

They actively endorsed the behaviour by not only failing to remove everyone involved in illegal gatherings as soon as it became apparent that they happened, they even promoted one of the offenders. The conservatives contempt further people of Britain became absolutely crystal clear.

I believe Truss was voted in to hold the fort for Johnson. The plan was that he would wait for her to mess things up, then appear like a knight in shining armour to save Party and Country.
Unfortunately, they didn't bank on her being so utterly incompetent. She screwed up far too soon and so spectacularly that Johnson was wrong-footed. He had to dash back from (yet another!) holiday, read the prepared speeches that no longer fitted and ended up looking a fool.

I suppose Truss's one achievement was that she ruined his comeback chances. Silver linings, and all that.

The problem with Conservative party members is the majority are old dinosaurs who don't want someone like Sunak in charge, they want Boris so they picked Truss.

Hopefully with a younger generation coming through (and from what I saw at the count I was doing the younger generation are coming through) we can move away from the Eton lot.

I live in one of the most deprived areas in England, and we too gained a Tory councillor (it was the independents who lost seats). However there are areas that are fairly affluent and it is those areas that return the Tories.

Speaking to a couple of Conservative voting neighbours, I was shocked at how openly racist they were in their refusal to vote for "that Muslim".
Personally, I think "that Muslim" is the best they've had for a long time, but some of their voters apparently don't see it that way.
Sunak isn't an old Etonian, by the way. He's a Wykehamist and the Chancellor is an old Carthusian.

of course you're not BU @noblegiraffe Although with it being a long bank holiday weekend just having the one bottle is impressive self-restraint, and possibly a bit U. 😀

The Tories losing over 1,000 seats come after a similarly disastrous set of local elections in May 2019. All good news. Given that a number of councils appear to elect only one-third at a time that likely saved the Tories from even worse losses.

Council elections do have much lower turnouts than a GE, and with multi-member wards in many (?) places it can be not just first, but also second and third past the post to get elected. However some of the results seeing swathes of tory cllrs losing seats in traditionally true blue areas might also suggest that the notion of the "safe" parliamentary seat is increasingly coming under question. That won't be the case everywhere but hopefully these results might persuade more people that their vote matters - assuming the correct ID of course 😠 - and can make a difference if they do vote, and perhaps think tactically given the situation in their constituency come GE time.

Whilst I'm not convinced that Kier Starmer has totally moved from very naughty boy to being the messiah it was a strong set of results for Labour; and an excellent set for the combined anyone but the Tories - aside Reform UK who I'm pleased to see had hardly any success.

it was a strong set of results for Labour; and an excellent set for the combined anyone but the Tories

Yes, unlike when UKIP were around, there is no vote to the right of the Tories that they can squeeze. There doesn't appear to be any route to them winning the next election and anyone suggesting that they can is living in cloud-cuckoo land. "Anyone But The Tories" is clearly way ahead.

Whether Labour can win a majority is a more interesting question. With the SNP in Scotland imploding it could be a possibility. But Labour propped up by the Lib Dems is another realistic prospect.

I think it interesting to note that in 2013 the Tories didn't do all that well in local elections, but that was in significant part because of votes moving to other right wing parties, notably UKIP. The same was not true this time.

I suspect there'll be a shed-load of tactical voting in the next GE.

Yes, remember there's plenty of room for the Tories to lose votes from the right to Reform, who reckon they're standing in the GE. Tice's last electoral effort, the Brexit Party, are reckoned to have cost the Tories up to a couple of dozen seats in 2019 by splitting the vote. That could very easily happen again. There'll be people who voted Tory under sufferance the other day because it was the most right wing option available to them, who won't do the same if they have a wider choice of candidates.

Also when it is even more apparant that the Tories are not going to win, then why not just vote reform, or not vote?

I think it interesting to note that in 2013 the Tories didn't do all that well in local elections, but that was in significant part because of votes moving to other right wing parties, notably UKIP. The same was not true this time

Agreed. Though 2013 was a smaller set of elections - far fewer councils, in the main larger ones - county councils rather than lots of little districts - as compared with last Thursday. The Tories lost 337 cllrs at that election, and LibDems 125; Labour gained 290 and UKIP 139. The Tories lost control of 10 councils, only 1 to Labour the rest to NOC.

In terms of dilution I think I'm on the same page as you and pink. Although given the completely predictable economic shambles that Brexit has been - something that will only be more apparent by the time of the GE, assuming that will most likely be Oct 2024 - if Reform do put up many candidates the most likely outcome is a lot of lost deposits. Any dilution in the tory vote is still hugely welcomed. Every little helps after all.

Out of interest the 2019 GE seats where the Brexit Party vote exceeded the Labour majority over Cons coming second were almost entirely in traditional Labour heartlands, and many who voted for the BP would have been former Labour voters many of whom will - if the do vote - return to Labour.

Turnout likely to be another key factor at the next GE.

Labour hopefully are on their way to win the next GE

but it’s not a given

Although given the completely predictable economic shambles that Brexit has been - something that will only be more apparent by the time of the GE, assuming that will most likely be Oct 2024 - if Reform do put up many candidates the most likely outcome is a lot of lost deposits. Any dilution in the tory vote is still hugely welcomed. Every little helps after all.

Oh yeah, they'll not be relevant in themselves. But they might fuck the Tories over, if we're lucky.

fingers crossed @PinkCherryBlossoms

Of course in 2019 the Brexit Party did not stand candidates in a single seat held by the Tories Tory going into that election. Can't see that happening next time.

It won’t, Reform and the Brexit Party aren’t happy with what the Conservatives have done. They won’t give them a free run again. So the Tories will definitely lose many seats.

Whilst I admire your optimism @Paul2023 the Brexit Party is now formally called Reform.

Much as I despise Farage with both UKIP and Brexit the clue was in the name. For many voters Reform probably won't mean a great deal. So its impact likely to be much more marginal. Which will make it much more important both that non tory/ right wing populist parties and their potential voters (who need to get out and vote as well) think a bit more carefully than has often be the case in the past about the local constituency situation.

What was once a Tory stronghold where I am is now Lib Dem, thank goodness! I usually vote Labour, but I knew the Lib Dem candidate an acquaintance and he is fantastic and genuinely gives a shit about the community. Plus he actively went door to door in the month leading up to the election, chatting with every household about their priorities, concerns, and how his values lined up. He won by a landslide.