Okay. Let’s see if I got this right....
The BoE increases its base rate to combat inflation. Is that right? Is that what they are doing? I think that’s why the BoE base rate keeps going up.
Next, this increases the rates at which banks are willing to lend money to borrowers. It also increases the interest paid on savings, but then we all know that savings interest is peanuts anyway, and outside of say an emergency fund, there are more sensible places to store your savings. And I agree with you that saving money in a vehicle that does not outstrip inflation is just dumb. Except when inflation really gets going, then you’re in the business of loss prevention, but we’re not there and hopefully won’t go there.
So the crux of your maths argument is that as the price of the housing stock falls, the increase in the underlying interest rate of the mortgage makes it just as hard to get a house.
My proposition is this...
The house price drops, and with a reasonable deposit of say 25%, and a willingness to live in a house less than 3x salary, we can safely take on a mortgage with an interest rate of 15% provided that interest rate didn’t stay that high for more than 5 years.
Now, over the past two centuries the average BoE interest rate has averaged 5.25%, and it has never stayed above 15% for more than two years without a plummet to create breathing room. I think planning for high interest is a damn safer bet that anyone who thinks 4% is high when they have never looked at interest rates in our economy or considered if they could afford their mortgages before. Those people had eyes bigger than their belly as my father would say.
So, no. I am not an economist. Just some uneducated bimbo with an iPad. And clearly We haven’t got our ducks in a row because we don’t own a house and DH is over 50. But I think we have a workable plan.
The curve ball I didn’t see was the government coming in and saying they would underwrite mortgages for those who couldn’t pay. That must have slowed the decline in house prices by a good 10% or so all in. So that worked against us.
The only other blind spot may be what happens if there is nowhere to save money that keeps up with inflation. If the stock market can’t return a average of 10% over 5 years (which I don’t see it doing over the next three unless I was willing to invest in the arms manufacturers, which I won’t.) I am sure there are assets that deal with those eventualities too, but who knows.
Good post though. Make me think.