A question about the future and automation

[Ivyleaguestoner]

If AI and automation continues to replace jobs then what will happen to the economy?
Machines don't spend money.
If most jobs are replaced then what will happen to capitalism?
My job will, in time, be replaced by a computer. My partners already has in many parts of the world. There will not be enough jobs for us all to move into new roles.
Unemployment benefits will not stretch to us all spending money in the same way we do whilst employed. And so will the economy just slump, and will it matter?

Bump

Following with interest!

How likely is this to happen in your lifetime?

Like with anything humans will adapt and find new jobs. Think about all the jobs in the past that no longer exist and all the jobs now that are 'new'.

It's coming along rapidly, with self driving cars and even increases in AI phone and web chat services.
I worry for my children more.

The labour market will just change shape. People may not go to shops as much, but they do get things delivered ( drivers/ drone pilots etc). The machinery needs to be designed, fabricated, maintained. It’s always happened.

Generally speaking innovation provides opportunities that require more people to realise them. Some jobs will go but different jobs will arrive to take advantage of the new technology. That's what's happened in the past. Look up Simon Wardley on Twitter and what he says about commoditisation.
Some examples are the opportunities created my the motor car, electricity, cloud computing, the PC to name a few.

Crosspost with @Dotcheck

Back in the early 1980's I did an MSc. Information Technology, whee this exact question was a burning topic.

In my experience, it's the very routine jobs which get replaced and there is an opening for more interesting jobs created.

My advice is to make sure you are in line for the more interesting jobs and, if I rules the world, we would be looking at a universal wage to avoid unrest amongst those who cannot take advantage of that approach.

That seems as far away as ever, too.

I don't have an answer for that the key to a good society will be to interdict

@whatadoodledo I suppose I can't really see past my own experience. I work with disillusioned men, men who have never worked, many who have become involved in criminal activities. It sometimes feels that they are relics from a past age, that they would have been relatively 'alright' if there were still certain industries in this country. They have little literacy skills, or 'soft skills' which lend themselves to customer service or healthcare roles. I feel like this about my own skills, I am not great with technology. And so if the world evolves and we all have to 'become' coders or social media managers, I would be left behind too, like the men I now look after.

We’ve been asking that question for 20 years as well and never got an answer beyond ‘it will never happen’. It has happened. There was talk, back in the early 00s in the last days of sanity, of bringing in ‘basic income’: but this is Britain and it will not happen here. Our leaders want to bring back imperialism and slavery.

@RosaGallica but who would we be slaves for? If robots are doing the work?

The well off still seem to like having human cleaners as status symbols. Remember the richest in the Regency period had servants merely to stand around looking posh in uniform or open doors. The richest couldn’t be seen to be doing such things themselves. Robots will never have that same show of status.

I suppose it's the question I always have. Is employment, any employment, better than no employment. The idea of a whole community working down the pit in back breaking, dangerous and yet dull jobs, was that a golden age? And now if those same communities are now at 30% employment, people are commuting for miles and miles for supermarket jobs. Others have to move away from their families and therefore take their earnings and taxes away from that community. Is this progress? Or deterioration?

IME the biggest losers in the job market have been those in the knowledge and information sector. So much is provided for free now - here we all are providing informed discussion right now - and the downwards impact on wages has been catastrophic while minimum wage has continued to rise.

Given how fast AI has advanced in the last two months, it’s very very likely. The industry I work in is being turned on it’s head.

It is not just technology that can take over people's jobs. Look at the UK back in 1980. I would bet that coal miners, bus conductors and milkmen were not worried about robots taking their jobs, and yet they have all but disappeared. There were 237,000 miners in 1980, just 6,000 in 2010. In 1980 89% of household milk was delivered, in 2015 it was less than 3%. Mind you there were no web designers, app developers, people designing, making and selling mobile phones and satnavs etc. In 30 years time many current occupations will have disappeared and people will be employed doing jobs we can not dream of today.

Here is a classic example of technology creating and destroying jobs. In 1980 nobody had heard of Blockbuster. 20 years later it employed 84,000 people, and after a further 20 years it has disappeared, as have all those jobs.

One job that has (totally?) disappeared with automation is Lift Operator. I am old enough to remember lift operators in department stores, but I wonder if anyone under 40 can? If you consider a tube train to be a horizontal lift, then perhaps kids born in the next few years will wonder what a tube train driver is.

@Ivyleaguestoner - I think you are being slightly U I'm afraid.

1700s - the Industrial Revolution
1900s - electrification

The dynamics change as some jobs are replaced by machine and other new jobs are created.

In the Industrial Revolution machinery replaced millions of workers, the countryside emptied as most had to go into the new cities to work.

Now WFH and the Pandemic is seeing a reverse, and with carbon footprint being such a hot issue perhaps there will be more agrarian work to produce crops locally.

The other expanding fields could be leisure - not holidays, but things to do for a few hours.

Certainly we desperately need more medical staff, teachers, social workers, Police. I'm sure there's lots more.

Some argue that the majority of the population will end up not just unemployed but unemployable. Then a minority, who own and run the robots and AI, etc, will hoard all the wealth. Personally, I can’t see this happening. People with money and power aren’t stupid. They know that you can’t have 70 or 80% of the population poor and desperate. Go down that road and you’ll end up with a revolution.

If we really do get to the point where a massive chunk of the population is unemployable, there will have to be a Universal Basic Income, paid for by taxing the robot/AI systems that generate the wealth. The problem won’t be poverty. The problem will be crime and anti-social behaviour. What the hell are people going to DO all day if they’re not at work? Where will all that unused energy go? Some people will be in heaven, of course. (I would LOVE not to have to work, and wouldn’t be bored for a second.) They will spend all that free time painting, learning the guitar, learning Russian, reading books, etc. But lots of people have no interest in those things. In fact, lots of people have no interest in ANYTHING. The danger will be groups of bored young men drinking alcohol, getting in fights, and making their neighbour’s lives hell.

@TrickorTreacle but that's not the issue. Prior to the introduction of welfare, if you didn't work, you didn't eat and you died. Now people are kept alive, just, benefits pay just enough to pay for a minimum standard of life. Mass unemployment. The people have lost their jobs not to other cheap labour, but to machines, to automation, and who don't pay back into the economy.

do you want to know one of the most future-proof jobs out there?

Hairdresser.

no matter how good tech gets, people will need haircuts. And given how utterly rubbish robots are at general motor skills, there is no way a robot is going to be wielding a pair of scissors near someones head for a long long time.

There are some pretty incredible videos of robot fruit pickers out there - one action done 1000s of times is something robots are good at. Variable actions to deal with flexible moving things like hair is something robots are very bad at.

@JoonT - the bored young men will probably be playing computer games in their bedrooms. there are already claims that widespread gaming has reduced crime because the bored petty criminals lazy at home insulting each other online instead.

@parietal more YouTube videos mean more people are cutting their own hair.

@JoonT ridiculous, those who make wealth absolutely will hoard it. Look at the American motor industry. Look at the banks who gambled with our money and were bailed out and STILL won't share profits.