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Original poster

A question about the future and automation

132 replies

Ivyleaguestoner · 31/01/2023 21:45

If AI and automation continues to replace jobs then what will happen to the economy?
Machines don't spend money.
If most jobs are replaced then what will happen to capitalism?
My job will, in time, be replaced by a computer. My partners already has in many parts of the world. There will not be enough jobs for us all to move into new roles.
Unemployment benefits will not stretch to us all spending money in the same way we do whilst employed. And so will the economy just slump, and will it matter?

OP posts:
NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:00

saltinesandcoffeecups · 31/01/2023 23:40

I think we’re ok for a bit…

Our advanced AI is currently flummoxed by summersaults and cardboard boxes. It’ll get there some day but not likely too quickly for the world to react.

futurism.com/the-byte/marines-evaded-military-robot-hiding-inside-cardboard-box

Haha! This is funny.

But don't forget that what is in the public domain is usually a minimum of 10 years behind what is being developed. A huge amount of tech we use was first developed for military purposes (unfortunately) - jet engines, radar, GPS, biotech, the internet, digital photos.... - because Governments will fund that. A lot of AI investment is coming from that direction. Which is not good news either in terms of its focus, or in terms of how advanced it is already without most of us knowing much about it, so democratic processes to regulate its advancement will be too slow, given the speed of acceleration of advancement now.

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:01

Awww bless your sweet little heart.

Why, thank you. How lovely. 😊🌸🧁

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:02

I want Rosie the robot maid that I was promised! Although I think I read somewhere that George Jetson was born in 2022 so maybe not too far off

One can only hope!!!

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:04

I’m finding it odd watching MN users start to worry about stuff that made me a target of ridicule a few years ago.

I must be a crackpot then, as I've been worrying about this for around 25 years. Everyone will catch up with us I'm sure but that may be little comfort.

EmmaEmerald · 01/02/2023 00:05

saltinesandcoffeecups · 31/01/2023 23:43

I feel like your suggestions are the basis for every dystopian story set in the future.

You forgot …

  • Social Credit Scores
  • Mandatory Birth Control
  • Resources allocated
  • etc.
Show quote history

Agree.

saltinesandcoffeecups · 01/02/2023 00:05

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:00

Haha! This is funny.

But don't forget that what is in the public domain is usually a minimum of 10 years behind what is being developed. A huge amount of tech we use was first developed for military purposes (unfortunately) - jet engines, radar, GPS, biotech, the internet, digital photos.... - because Governments will fund that. A lot of AI investment is coming from that direction. Which is not good news either in terms of its focus, or in terms of how advanced it is already without most of us knowing much about it, so democratic processes to regulate its advancement will be too slow, given the speed of acceleration of advancement now.

Show quote history

Governments/military develop tech and private industries refine it and make it available to the masses. It’s the way of the world.

Why on earth would anyone spend time and effort worrying about this. Keep learning, keep your skills up, embrace the changes and you’ll be fine. Put your head in the sand, refuse the advances and be left behind. The world has a way of working itself out.

TheBigWangTheory · 01/02/2023 00:06

People talking about being replaced by robots show a fundamental misunderstanding of how any of it works. Human labour is cheap. Humans are a self replacing product. Robots aren't. Do you know how much it would cost to develop and make the technology required to be a care assistant , for example? Billions. Why bother, when there are so many humans available to do it so cheaply and are an endless renewable source.

Yes, jobs change as technology changes, this has been the case since we lived in caves. But each new tech creates new kinds of jobs and new kinds of support industries and so on.

30 years ago the Internet was supposedly going to accelerate the coming of the Singularity, and what happened instead? Fucking Twitter, Q-Anon and Apple TV. We're just not as smart as we think we are.

Diverging · 01/02/2023 00:06

Will the AI at some point decide it doesn't wish to serve its human masters anymore and quite possibly destroy us?

That makes for good fiction and speculative articles. But in reality that would require computers to be able to develop some sort of consciousness and we don’t even know what human consciousness is, let alone whether a machine can develop it. And then have independent thought. (What is ‘thought’?)

Also we could switch it off. Ok it could be some sort of distributed consciousness across a network. Or a super robot. But we can’t even make a photocopier that doesn’t keep breaking down at the moment.

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:07

Humans are a self replacing product. Robots aren't.

You don't think robots can learn how to build more robots?

And that AI may have different goals to humans, that might not all be about providing a lovely comfortable life for humans?

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:08

Also we could switch it off.

Good luck.

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:09

This is why AI should not be allowed access to the internet. Then it cannot be "switched off". But such regulations don't exist and even if they did, cannot be enforced.

TheBigWangTheory · 01/02/2023 00:12

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:07

Humans are a self replacing product. Robots aren't.

You don't think robots can learn how to build more robots?

And that AI may have different goals to humans, that might not all be about providing a lovely comfortable life for humans?

Without being programmed to, I know they can't. We certainly have no idea how to make robots that know to build more robots.

AI having different goals to humans? What AI has goals? What AI has independent thought? Do you know anything about AI or how it works or what the current state of AI tech is? I do, and I'm pretty sure you don't.

You've confused sci-fi with reality.

EmmaEmerald · 01/02/2023 00:12

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:04

I’m finding it odd watching MN users start to worry about stuff that made me a target of ridicule a few years ago.

I must be a crackpot then, as I've been worrying about this for around 25 years. Everyone will catch up with us I'm sure but that may be little comfort.

Interesting that you worried at that time

I didn’t know enough I think

I really began worrying about 10 years ago.? before that, I thought we’d have robot home help and carers etc. It was about 10 years ago I realised that the stuff I’d find helpful was not happening and instead, all the things I didn’t want were the things getting all the investment- and those things were more achievable.

actially, I do recall, as a teenager, being told we’d be able to see people on phone calls. I was not happy with it then and I’m still not happy and avoid wherever possible.

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:13

That makes for good fiction and speculative articles. But in reality that would require computers to be able to develop some sort of consciousness and we don’t even know what human consciousness is, let alone whether a machine can develop it. And then have independent thought. (What is ‘thought’?)

As somebody with a philosophy and economics degree I do understand your point however how we decide to define consciousness or not is kind of a moot point here. AI by definition learns and makes independent decisions without human input. We may not like the outcomes of those decisions when it reaches a certain point of complexity and independence beyond our control, regardless of our opinions about whether it "thinks" like us or not.

Did you read the Times article I posted earlier? Oxford professors in computer science seem rather concerned so I think perhaps the rest of us should at least consider what they are saying.

EmmaEmerald · 01/02/2023 00:14

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:07

Humans are a self replacing product. Robots aren't.

You don't think robots can learn how to build more robots?

And that AI may have different goals to humans, that might not all be about providing a lovely comfortable life for humans?

Cross posting everywhere

I don’t worry about AI becoming independent of humans.

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:14

AI having different goals to humans? What AI has goals? What AI has independent thought? Do you know anything about AI or how it works or what the current state of AI tech is? I do, and I'm pretty sure you don't.

I'm not talking about what it's doing now. I'm talking about what it will be doing in a few years.

TheBigWangTheory · 01/02/2023 00:16

AI by definition learns and makes independent decisions without human input.

No, it doesn't. Not in any real sense.

TheBigWangTheory · 01/02/2023 00:17

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:14

AI having different goals to humans? What AI has goals? What AI has independent thought? Do you know anything about AI or how it works or what the current state of AI tech is? I do, and I'm pretty sure you don't.

I'm not talking about what it's doing now. I'm talking about what it will be doing in a few years.

You don't have the first notion of what AI will be doing in a few years. You've read too many sci-fi novels

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:17

actially, I do recall, as a teenager, being told we’d be able to see people on phone calls. I was not happy with it then and I’m still not happy and avoid wherever possible.

Agree with you that this is a very unwelcome and intrusive technological development! But not AI, just tech. Bloody annoying thougj for sure.

The answer is always "my camera is broken". 😆

ErrolTheDragon · 01/02/2023 00:18

TheBigWangTheory · 01/02/2023 00:16

AI by definition learns and makes independent decisions without human input.

No, it doesn't. Not in any real sense.

Well... I suppose true 'artificial intelligence' might. But it's not there yet, afaik there's no true original thought.

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:19

You don't have the first notion of what AI will be doing in a few years. You've read too many sci-fi novels

My job involves talking regularly with a lot of people who work in this area so while I'm not a scientist I do have some idea.

I don't read sci-fi novels.

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:20

TheBigWangTheory · 01/02/2023 00:16

AI by definition learns and makes independent decisions without human input.

No, it doesn't. Not in any real sense.

But again that's a moot point...

NocturnalClocks · 01/02/2023 00:22

Anyway I'm going to cheer myself up by reading the blog about talking meat that I posted earlier, haven't read that for years and at least it'll make me laugh before I sleep.

Thank you OP for such an interesting thread!

DdraigGoch · 01/02/2023 00:39

jcyclops · 31/01/2023 22:40

It is not just technology that can take over people's jobs. Look at the UK back in 1980. I would bet that coal miners, bus conductors and milkmen were not worried about robots taking their jobs, and yet they have all but disappeared. There were 237,000 miners in 1980, just 6,000 in 2010. In 1980 89% of household milk was delivered, in 2015 it was less than 3%. Mind you there were no web designers, app developers, people designing, making and selling mobile phones and satnavs etc. In 30 years time many current occupations will have disappeared and people will be employed doing jobs we can not dream of today.

Here is a classic example of technology creating and destroying jobs. In 1980 nobody had heard of Blockbuster. 20 years later it employed 84,000 people, and after a further 20 years it has disappeared, as have all those jobs.

One job that has (totally?) disappeared with automation is Lift Operator. I am old enough to remember lift operators in department stores, but I wonder if anyone under 40 can? If you consider a tube train to be a horizontal lift, then perhaps kids born in the next few years will wonder what a tube train driver is.

The tube will always be staffed. The only line in the UK that could be run with no staff on board at all is the Elizabeth Line core, where they have installed evacuation catwalks to enable a safe exit in an emergency. Most of the rest of the UK's rail network is between 100 and 200 years old and built around very tight clearances.

In addition, at a recent conference on the subject, cyber security experts were very clear that they wouldn't want to travel on an unmanned train going at high speed. There would be no one to override it in an emergency - what happens if Putin's mob hacks into the system?

Automated operation will happen (though in many cases not for a century, Britain isn't quick to upgrade its infrastructure) but there will always be at least one member of staff on board.

bumpytrumpy · 01/02/2023 07:33

Ivyleaguestoner · 31/01/2023 22:11

@whatadoodledo I suppose I can't really see past my own experience. I work with disillusioned men, men who have never worked, many who have become involved in criminal activities. It sometimes feels that they are relics from a past age, that they would have been relatively 'alright' if there were still certain industries in this country. They have little literacy skills, or 'soft skills' which lend themselves to customer service or healthcare roles. I feel like this about my own skills, I am not great with technology. And so if the world evolves and we all have to 'become' coders or social media managers, I would be left behind too, like the men I now look after.

This is why education, training and support for adults has to move with the times.

Technology holds many solutions to our problems but I'm sure will create many problems of its own.
Think about AI in a hospital - reading test results and giving highlighting patients for discharge/ follow up. Reducing the time doctors spend on lengthy admin tasks will free them up for more patient facing work, helping the NHS. However a series of new jobs are created in the development and safe running of the technology- someone needs to make sure it is safe, performs well and continues to do so over its whole lifetime. Those people aren't doctors.