A question about the future and automation

[Ivyleaguestoner]

If AI and automation continues to replace jobs then what will happen to the economy?
Machines don't spend money.
If most jobs are replaced then what will happen to capitalism?
My job will, in time, be replaced by a computer. My partners already has in many parts of the world. There will not be enough jobs for us all to move into new roles.
Unemployment benefits will not stretch to us all spending money in the same way we do whilst employed. And so will the economy just slump, and will it matter?

It sounds like you deal with complex work - do you rehabilitate ex offenders perhaps? That kind of work won’t be replicated by AI.

I think in time, leisure industry & hobbies will increase & create more jobs

Retro pursuits will increase like the equivalent of enjoying; vinyl records, classic cars, off grid living, board games, crafts like basket making, forest crafts, foraging etc

I think that art, craft, music, dance, sports will increase, creating more jobs

I think that repair shops, recycling, environmental schemes will increase creating more jobs

There may be more jobs based under the sea too

More jobs based in space

no matter how good tech gets, people will need haircuts. And given how utterly rubbish robots are at general motor skills, there is no way a robot is going to be wielding a pair of scissors near someones head for a long long time.

There are robots being piloted already to perform very precise surgery, that outperform very skilled surgeons. I don't think haircuts are where the line with be drawn. 🤣

Personally my employer is behind with the times and I would love if it got a digital overhaul. Some aspects of my job CAN be automated and I’d welcome that. Some efficiencies could be made. I don’t think my job could be completely taken over by AI though so perhaps I have a safety net.

Automation has been happening g since the dawn of times. What’s new?

That’s the thing though - I think machines excel with precision work. It’s the open-ended creative jobs that they might struggle with today, as every outcome needs to be accounted for/programmed in to behave in an expected manner. There’s too many contingencies.

People assume some jobs are 'safe' but they're still affected. Social work for example, the client can do most things online now such as job hunting, applying for UC, look for information. There's also email which saves so much time in terms of what you can convey and attach. Yes, for the individual these are great advances but where will it end? Job coaches, these could be AI generated in the future. Surgeons? Pharmacists? Nurses? Receptionists? TA's? Where will it end?

To answer your question OP it will require a fundamental restructuring of society. I don't think many people realise how quickly this change is happening/ will happen, and it is accelerating all the time. AI can now produce unique content that includes analysis not just regurgitated stuff it has harvested online, it can produce reports as good as a journalist, it can write essays, it can create artwork. Robots can perform delicate tasks like surgery.

The entire idea of creating technology was to give humans less work to do and more leisure time. So far this hasn't really happened.

There are three main questions, the first one of which you rightly identified.

Will society be able to restructure quickly enough to make the transition that is coming without imploding, and how will that look? It only works if there is huge wealth redistribution and a reframing of leisure as a good thing - the actual goal of creating technology in the first place! - rather than laziness.

Even if transition was well designed and managed from a financial, logistical and societal perspective (unlikely!! 🤣), would the people who haven't grown up with this be able to adjust properly without destroying society? Given that so many people have struggled with the proportionately minor technological changes in the last 20-30 years - compared to what's coming in the next 20-30 - I'd say this is also highly unlikely. People seem to expect things to be fairly similar but with more "gadgets". They won't. This is going to be a time of HUGE disruption, devastation, add in climate change and mass migration of humans on a scale never seen before (hundreds of millions), food and water shortages, plus all of this. No generation will never have lived through anything like it. I worry SO much for my children. Technology could be the saviour, or the end, which leads me on to...

Will the AI at some point decide it doesn't wish to serve its human masters anymore and quite possibly destroy us? Some very interesting books on this but even an article in The Times a few days ago for an easily accessible intro: www.thetimes.co.uk/article/rogue-ai-could-kill-everyone-3bsfttpmv

The magnitude of it all it MASSIVELY underestimated by most people, and how fast it is coming towards us. And as usual, there is no plan. 😬

That’s the thing though - I think machines excel with precision work. It’s the open-ended creative jobs that they might struggle with today, as every outcome needs to be accounted for/programmed in to behave in an expected manner. There’s too many contingencies.

You haven't seen the art, literature, essays etc machines have been producing recently? The whole point of AI is that at a certain point it does not need programming. It becomes out of our control. This is what people are not grasping. It's actually terrifying and because of its capacity of exponential development humans may soon be obsolete.

It won't end...

@NocturnalClocks yes someone gets it!!

I’m not sure what you’re not grasping here to be frank. It’s one thing for AI to create a photorealistic digital image or write an essay digitally - that’s not in dispute. AI can excel with digital work, that’s in its remit. It’s another thing for AI to physically wash, cut, colour, tone and blow dry hair and add or remove hair extensions to account for every possible salon outcome in between - the tech isn’t there yet. As of today, it is easier to create AI to do 1 precise physical task that doesn’t have to account for several other outcomes like people do.

@Ivyleaguestoner I remember discussing all of this with my (now) software engineer brother 20 years ago when we were teenagers. You can actually map the exponential growth on a graph: from the giant computer at the science museum to now, where everyone has a computer that powerful in their pocket. And then if you follow where that exponential curve leads... the singularity is not actually far into the future now. Anybody who isn't terrified by this doesn't understand it at all. And machines taking our jobs will be the least of our worries!!

And @itswednesdayy is concerned about haircuts. 🤣🤣🤣

My suggestions would be

• cut down to a four day working week for all (employees paid for five days)
• redistribution of profits from industry areas who are replacing the majority or even minority if their workforce with machines. This must go into community or environmental budgets.
• all barriers to accessing and working in other countries to be removed.
• social housing reform
• free lifelong education for all
• communal shared spaces to reduce the need to all heat and use power in individual houses. More leisure time will mean more time spent at home and the planet cannot afford the amount of energy this would take.
• ban on private car ownership apart from in mitigating circumstances.
• Strict ethical guidelines of AI

I think we’re ok for a bit…

Our advanced AI is currently flummoxed by summersaults and cardboard boxes. It’ll get there some day but not likely too quickly for the world to react.

futurism.com/the-byte/marines-evaded-military-robot-hiding-inside-cardboard-box

I suppose, to lighten the mood slightly, if humans do become superseded and obsolete it may save us from this kind of intergalactic embarrassment, in the long run. So there's that.

www.mit.edu/people/dpolicar/writing/prose/text/thinkingMeat.html

I feel like your suggestions are the basis for every dystopian story set in the future.

You forgot …

• Social Credit Scores
• Mandatory Birth Control
• Resources allocated
• etc.

Awww bless your sweet little heart. I merely responded to a topic others were also discussing up thread.

No wonder you’re worried about AI replacing you with that poor level of comprehension😬

One potential answer to the Fermi Paradox, I suppose.

waitbutwhy.com/2014/05/fermi-paradox.html

But not an especially comforting one. Although I'm not sure there IS an especially comforting one.

Sorry OP, I've probably just multiplied the size of your rabbit hole. 🤣🐰

Kinda wish sometimes my main worry was the extent of robot hairdressers' dexterity issues. 😆

I totally get why you worry about your DC. I think the people who do well will be the ones who are genuinely interested in tech. I hate it so I’m lucky I wasn’t born later. Going forward, the number of jobs that can be done without really solid tech knowledge will be quite small.

Then a minority, who own and run the robots and AI, etc, will hoard all the wealth. Personally, I can’t see this happening

It’s already happening. The 1% have started hoarding most of the wealth.

I want Rosie the robot maid that I was promised! Although I think I read somewhere that George Jetson was born in 2022 so maybe not too far off

When did this experiment happen though?

it might well have overcome those issues by now, even if it’s only a year ago. Also it’s an odd example. There’s already tons of tech replacing people. ChatGPT is just the latest.

Yup.

I’m finding it odd watching MN users start to worry about stuff that made me a target of ridicule a few years ago.

I also want my housework robot.