Lockdown was vital at first whilst we figured out what was actually going on and how we needed to deal with the disease.
Why?
Well the mortality rate of SARS is 9.5% and MERS is 35%.
These are the closest related diseases we knew to covid.
We also suspect that the very first outbreak of covid in Wuhan was more deadly that the variant that eventually swept across the world and this was largely covered up.
The point was we had no idea what we were dealing with.
Can you imagine what would happen if they kept the schools open and the fatality rate amongst kids was 35%. Or God forbid even higher? (thinking of the mortality rate of ebola in this context).
Going forward to any future pandemics this holds true and we cannot lose sight of this.
Until we know what we are dealing with a lockdown is the most sensible initial response.
The question is actually more about a) how you convey this reality in a post covid world b) how long any initial lockdown lasts and who is required to not lockdown (and whether we have enough preparation to protect them properly with PPE during this period, which we absolutely did not have for covid) c) vaccine preparedness and production issues to shorten that period between a new disease and a medical protection.
From what I've seen if the pandemic had been 18 months later we would have had the technology to roll out vaccines much much faster because the MRNA vaccines were just on the cusp of being ready but weren't quite.
We also needed to shut down faster than we did - there was a blasé attitude that the risk to the uk was negligible for a long time after that opinion should have been quoshed. It was apparent a lot sooner than we acted that that covid was different to other scares about a possible pandemic. No one wanted to make that judgement call - we need to get better at that as it has a massive impact on what happened next.
Then there has to be a better approach to communication over how the situation evolved over time. The early stage pandemic was very different to mid pandemic and in turn that was different to late stage pandemic.
The UK was actually the first country to get rid of the restrictions it had imposed. At the time, Johnson was utterly berated for this, but as it panned out it became apparent he could have easily gone a month earlier and it not really have made much of a difference.
And we could do with losing our racist attitude to doctors and scientists in other parts of the world who simply weren't trusted when they said omicron was mild.
The debate over when schools reopened fits into all this - but has to sit behind the point about learning what fatality rates look like.
Weirdly we probably got off lightly with covid. It was a rare pandemic that didn't affect the young in a hard way. Historically children have been amongst those most badly affected and most likely to die.
There is a certain irony here that whilst we debate the damage done to children's education, we must not lose sight of this point. In times past many of those children simply wouldn't survive to worry about mental health.
The psychological impact of covid and the possible implications for future pandemics is quite scary to think about if the next pandemic has a much higher mortality, particularly child and infant mortality.
Blanket statements about never doing another lockdown again are dangerous for this reason.
Ultimately it comes down to better understanding, being better prepared and being able to respond more effectively and in a shorter time frame. Hopefully covid does give us the framework to do this successfully.
Lockdowns themselves are not a bad thing. In the past we have ended up with defacto self imposed ones anyway. The issue is about duration not lockdowns themselves.